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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#3298

Westlock

I disagree

Holding Lloyd’s shares has been shocking return in 2019

Not everyone bought in the December 2018 sell off due to traders recession fears of 2019

Now we got market friendly Government for another 5 year’s I be upset not to see a decent return / Mark up from a mid price of 65p going forward in 2020

Let’s get this to 65p new year’s eve

And see some true return in 2020 folks


#3299

Hi @regardless, but what @j_westlock has correctly pointed out is that if you were holding LLOY or a FTSE 100, 250 or S&P tracker one year ago and just held for the year then your total return would have been as he described. Which is directly comparable with frog_in_a_trees performance.

The fact that nearly everything was doing badly at the tail end of 2018 doesnt come into it. You didn’t have to buy in December 2018 just to have been holding at that time, in the year that followed you would have achieved the gain that he described. Which was pretty exceptional really.

And of course where things go from here is quite another matter…

I freely admit to have managed only about 15% YTD, but then my target is 8-10% per year and my portfolio is not designed to maximise gains but to minimise losses - so I am not surprised that it hasn’t done as well as these other approaches. For example my hedging against possible election losses almost certainly limited my gains as I was betting on sets of things that were likely to win and lose in roughly equal measure. On balance I am content with how things worked out.

ATB

Pref


#3300

I look at the whole / true picture Pref

UK stocks not done well at all in 3 year’s

FTSE100 is made up of overseas earners

BTW well done on your year end return :slight_smile:


#3301

Yes… 2020 looks like being quite a different matter. A well diversified portfolio with a healthy amount of non-GBP earners/payers looks to be the best bet.
Difficult to see much capital gain from here and predicting FX pairs other than close to the near-inevitable UK crash out a year from now all of a sudden looks a heap more tricky.


#3302

And Happy New Year to you young Man :wink:


#3303

Hi Again @regardless,

Here is a one year total return chart which confirms the performance described by @J_Westlock earlier:-

and here is a 3 year chart which while negative at times still shows LLOY up ~20% over 3 years

And you will almost certainly have done better than this shows as you have traded in and out a few times to your advantage.

So not too much to complain about even over 3 years I dont think ?.

ATB

Pref


#3304

Back in today at 62.2p , target 69p


#3305

Deadly_Doug :wink:

69p will be here before next update / ex dividend date IMHO

The Un-loved UK stocks will be the big winners over the next 12 months

Catch up time

GOOD TRADE SIR


#3306

You don’t think that the UK not having a trade agreement with the EU a year from now and exiting the transition period might have an adverse effect on UK stock SPs then @regardless ?
Or are you 100% confident that a UK-EU trade deal will be signed off this time next year?


#3307

100% Boris will get Brexit done he finally got a progressive Parliament now

Will have a Trade Agreement agreed that will be also Benefit for our European partners

Remember we buy a lot more from our European Friends than sell, so a Deal is a no brainer IMHO

Big returns for the unloved Lloyd’s Banking Group shares

CAPITAL GAINS
JUICY QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS

All coming my way in 2020


#3308

I’m not questioning getting a deal done.
I’m questioning getting a deal done in less than 12 months ie. in 2020.

So… are you predicting that a deal will be done with EU by end of 2020? Predicting that with above 90% confidence?


#3309

Let me take this opportunity to wish everyone a very happy Christmas and a prosperpus New Year and whatever our individual feelings over Brexit etc let us hope that we can all come together in a peaceful and polite relationship and let all the “trolls” find a new platform to scream abuse on. Hopefully we will all find something to celebrate in 2020 whatever our political beliefs or wishes.

Best regards

TJ


#3310

Hi All, Well with the election now done and dusted, and in between the normal Xmas fayre, I have been giving consideration as to how best to invest given the circumstances that we face in 2020.

US markets are at all time highs but increasingly some analysts are saying that they feel that gains can continue (though perhaps to a reduced extent) in 2020. I must say I am personally concerned that we might see a correction, which seems like a strong possibility to me (likely taking other markets down with it). In no way certain obviously, but I just feel that US markets cant go on making new ATHs every day forever !.

Here in the UK we continue to experience the Boris bounce which has moved both the FTSE 100 and 250 to significant highs. Some are predicting the FTSE 100 might hit 8,000 (just about a new all time high) in 2020, and actually we are only about 350 points (~4.5%) away from that now. I think that Brexit will continue to dog the FTSE and the GBP in 2020, though the effect will likely wax and wane with the news.

I moved more of my investments overseas prior to the election as a hedge and that has been beneficial since as the pound has been falling. However I am concerned that investing in ETFs (being index trackers) will just guarantee to deliver index losses in the event of a correction, individual stock picking has a better chance of at least minimising losses in that situation, provided it is done with care (and of course deliver better dividends). Of course one could always move into cash, but for how long exactly ?. @Eadwig I believe you are keeping ~30% in cash against this contingency ?.

Continuing to invest in a FTSE 100 tracker doesn’t seem sensible to me ATM with probably a 4.5% upside (albeit with an additional 4.5% in dividends) and again individual stock picking here seems more likely to be successful. I see this as especially true with many UK defensive stocks like utilities and property investments (both house builders and REITs) now rehabilitated (to my mind) with the removal of the threat posed by Labour.

So while i am not hugely enthused by the prospect of returning to single stock investing, I am planning a limited return in the coming weeks. In particular I am considering the following purchases:-
a) One or perhaps two housebuilders (yields on PSN and TW are 9%+ and 10%+ respectively, these dividends would seem to offer a significant moat against capital losses).
b) National Grid, with the nationalisation threat now removed. Well known for its defensive qualities and safe ~5% yield.
c) Lloyds maybe, with possible significant upside (if Brexit goes well) and a 5%+ yield. But I’d want a price lower than 62p though.
d) A REIT, perhaps RGL, offering a 7%+ yield and 100% dividend cover and a portfolio of mainly office and industrial properties (very little retail). More expensive than I’d like ATM though.

Whether I proceed with actual purchases will depend on getting what I think are good prices. Selling my FTSE 100 tracker and one of my other ETFs will be sufficient to fund these purchases. Income should be substantially enhanced, which is always a positive in my mind.

That’s more than enough to get started in 2020 I think.

Anyone interested in any of these picks needs to DYOR etc. As always my take on the markets could be completely wrong !.

@Eadwig & @J_Westlock I’d be interested to hear your views on 2020.

Hope everyone had a good Xmas. So far I think Ive managed to avoiding eating too much so maybe I wont have so much weight to lose in January !.

ATB

Pref


#3311

I don’t suppose pref shares will swing back in favour?

You may be right that property trusts have further to recover as the process of more stable asset values gets reflected in their NAVs. Also if you can find a way of cashing in on the infrastructure companies behind the shift from high street to online retail and online services that seems structurally logical … not the companies selling 80p t-shirts sown by slaves in China, the companies providing online market places and processing payments and fulfilling orders and …

While you have been looking to blue chip income or value the big upside story has been the recovery of UK small cap ITs, just take a look at how SLS has swung from a discount back to a premium for example. Individual UK small cap stocks will be a 2020 success story if you can pick them out, or place your chips on the ITs which seem to be concentrated on prospective winners. I think European smaller stocks will also do well in 2020, but I thought that for the last three years and it has been a miserable time so what do I know.

You have already placed your bets on the renewable energy sector, but keep a look out for the companies which are going to solve the problem of how we convert trickle-accumulated cheap wind and solar energy into full-scale on-demand capacity … a problem at the grid level and for distributed EV charging, and otherwise wasteful to stand idle those assets capable of generating energy during off-peak. At the moment the UK is routinely having to burn a little coal and import electrons under the North Sea/Channel because we have a shortfall at peak times, and that cannot continue.

Also on the look out for the companies which solve carbon-neutral or low-carbon energy from waste, on a scale which solves the triple problems of waste, energy and climate/pollution.

Anyone who can solve the energy-density problem of zero-carbon air travel?

Or a cheap simple universal non-invasive solution to screening for and treating prostate problems?

As for your idea that the UK markets are at a peak, well not really, overlay the UK indices on a chart of US or global indices in the last 3-5-10 years and we are lagging way behind. Despite many UK stocks being truly global companies, and despite domestic companies being such good value they keep being snapped up by raiders. (GNK, BTG, Costa, Chobham, Dairy Crest, Dennis, Fullers, Gatwick, JLT … who is next at $1.30?).

The chance of 8xxx rather greater than the chance of seeing 6xxx again during 2020? In which case place your bets on a high yield index tracker.


#3312

Especially without a trade deal.


#3313

That is true but I take the view that you risk say a 40% steep decline in the worst case scenario eg. a financial crash… and if you don’t make hay when the sun shines then you would miss out on 335% increase in a decade (roughly 27% a year increase in value alone for S&P500).
Given that I have no way… and nor does anyone else other than by luck… in predicting when a market is going to go into decline then I will take that risk and probably jump out of any index suffering a steep decline in a short few weeks.
I will stick with VUSA, various other US stocks, ITs and Funds well into Q1 at least.

I don’t know why you thought house builders were threatened by a Labour Government; they said that Developers would face a ‘use it or lose it’ tax on stalled housing developments but I don’t recall anything else threatening them.
Moreover, the housing sector has been slowing for years and the main issue is lack of affordability ie. many potential buyers still find it difficult to get the large deposit together. If you look at the house p/e ratio then it is no better than many months ago.
That doesn’t mean housebuilders aren’t a good investment, nor that their SP won’t increase… but the UK has systemic problems still with the housing sector and our new Government have no policies that will relieve any of those issues ie. it isn’t a healthy sector.

National Grid… well can’t see any downside. I can’t see it hitting highs either… but better than holding cash.

The ‘Boris’ bounce is already over though you might still get some small rises when volume returns in the New Year.

Personally, I’m looking at putting more in US Banks (eg. Goldmans), maybe some GBP US Bank Index if I can find one, Japan Index (like VJPN) and Emerging Markets (like VFEM).


#3314

BBOX REIT specialises in distribution centres mainly for online sales deliveries. I used to be in them, took good dividends and withdrew when I had a profit equivalent to about the next two years divis.


#3315

Hi @marktime1231, Well pref shares ARE already back in favour, I think that with what happened with Aviva the redemption threat is now largely a thing of the past. I bought some in November 2018 when they were at a ludicrously low price I thought (sort of ~115p) and with dividends they have all returned sort of 25%+ in total return terms. I am trying hard to avoid the mistake of going in too hard on anything though, however well it’s going. Not putting more than about 15-20% of the portfolio into any one thing. Already there with prefs and renewables.

Yes small cap trusts, interesting idea. I’ll take a closer look - not really done much in that sector previously. Sector rose a lot on the election, but maybe it’s got further to go.

FTSE at 8000+ ?, I’ll believe it when I see it. Maybe when Brexit is done and dusted, but next year - hmmmm. I know what some analysts are writing about the UK being undervalued, I confess I think for the moment it’s likely to stay that way. Could be wrong as always.

Thanks for the input anyway.

ATB

Pref


#3316

@PrefInvestor1
Yes, I’m back to 33% cash of current portfolio value, although I may be spending some substantial dollar amounts later if my limit orders execute.

It is a big question and I’m still processing. I still have some hedge work to do on inherited stocks but I am freer now than I have been for nearly 2 years. I have been distributing some of my , errrr, lets call it my wider portfolio, outside stocks and shares, most specifically into my medal collection which has risen substantially in value since I started to build it in 2000 (perhaps 100%-200%). I have added some high quality items via online purchases recently.

I think, globally, we will see the markets continue to hit highs for the first quarter or two in 2020 but I’m still convinced there will be a correction of between 20%-40% , probably when we least expect it. Why? Because there always is. Although … with Q.E. and low interest rates just possibly we are in some kind of new era, or at least length of cycle.

Did I ever mention i sold out of my S&P 500 tracker for huge profits after it hit multiple all time highs once too often to my mind. That was about 2014/15 I think. Maybe even earlier. I bought after the ‘great recession’ carnage and was amazed how quickly it surged back. Definitely a plan for part of my cash pile should similar events happen.

Although my cash pile remains high, I am in and out of short term trades on large and small cap companies pretty much constantly, and that has been going reasonably well.

I hold PRS REIT (family housing build to rent) and intend to hold for the long term (10 years?). I bought too high initially when over the IPO price of @100p but have added since it languished recently and my average is around @91p. Slightly underwater, but it has started to make a come back now and I’m hoping it continues (obviously) and at some point picks up capital growth from its assets also.

US purchases, if they happen, are made in USD (although I considered converting some GBP when it strengthened today a little) and are in NetApp Inc, a cloud play that looks set up to have a good run in 2020, so much so its management are boasting that ‘the macro is irrelevant to our growth’. I thought I’d put some cash behind such hubris if I can get $62.50 per share. Quite happy to sell that at a 10% profit and add to the USD holding in my SIPP.

A couple of other tiny companies that are such wild plays I’m not going to mention them here in case someone decides to take a punt. Nothing but plays on the next quarter results and guidance which should see large lifts in the price of both at which point I will sell. I’m hoping for something more like 30%+ in those. Minimum. Again, they are very much tech based and 5G spending recipients (or should be) which I think will drive tech in 2020 now I’m hearing from ex-colleagues in places like San Francisco who are seriously considering journeys only to destinations where 5G is available once they get there.

I haven’t set orders for these yet, haven’t quite had time to research properly, but I feel the money will be going on come what may. These are all companies I have come across while watching my UK-based (head-quartered) semi-conductor company, IQE, go nowhere and I remain deeply underwater with. If they can’t come back from 5G involvement with some of their products after Q1 (seasonal slow time) they probably never will.

Other than that, still got a lot of work to do strategy-wise. Most of the above (except PRS) is all tactical or even operational level activity. Have been tied up far more than I expected over the Xmas period.

TTFN


#3317

Weird for me this one.

30 years ago I heard the phrase that you make more money by timing the market than you ever will from stock picking. I still believe that is true but 25 years ago I realised I was rubbish at market timing, 50/50ish, no significant ability, literally ‘it will go up and it will go down but in not necessarily in that order’ - that is true along with the fact that I have no other clue. Random walk with upward drift I do believe in…

So, for the last 25 years, knowing how much little I do actually know, I’ve just chosen to be pretty much 100% invested. No borrowing, zero leverage, just all in apart from a decent 3 month cash float. Overweight FTSE250 plus a fair bit of US exposure (American sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold)

It’s worked and can’t see any good reason to change the plan.

Good luck to those that try but I’m just not that good.

Regards,
ITDYA, thinking maybe one to many cliché?