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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#3318

Well @ITDYA, I’m glad to hear that you have been successful with your investments. I have no idea what strategy you follow but I am fundamentally an income seeker so I can relate to being 100% invested (to collect the maximum dividends) but I have never been keen on US markets with its collection of highly volatile growth stocks. But I have found a few ways to invest there to gain some limited exposure.

I have experimented with timing the market in the past and it can work very well or very badly, I would not recommend it to anyone. However having a view of what you think is likely to happen in the markets is, I think, an essential part of an investment strategy. It helps you decide what types of assets to invest in and where. Of course I’m guessing Warren Buffett would just say that you should search out the best companies and only invest in them. I’m pretty sure that list would only involve US names though !. Just took a look at Berkshire Hathaway B holdings and surprise surprise they all look like US companies to me.

Anyway just to clarify in case it wasn’t obvious, I wasn’t proposing to do anything other than stay 100% invested. However I was suggesting that I am planning to switch some of my holdings into single stocks chosen for their defensive properties rather than to have the majority of my equity holdings in index tracking ETFs. And I won’t be investing in any S&P 500 trackers right now.

Could be totally wrong as always……

ATB

Pref


#3319

Hi there Prefinvestor

Season’s greetings to you. I trust that you had an enjoyable Christmas with your family. I got home today from my younger daughter’s place and her family. The peace and quiet I now have cannot be bettered! I also have her two dogs to look after for a week and they are both asleep.

I thought that I would have a quick look at my change of investment strategy where I switched out of individual stocks and put the proceeds into Investment Trusts over a three month period from the end of March 2018 to the end of June 2018 with all dividends automatically invested,

As of the close yesterday the IT’s have appreciated by 22.64 percent whilst if I had just kept the individual stocks (including dividends automatically reinvested) they would now be showing a loss of 2.06 percent.

The calculations may not be 100 percent accurate as I have pointed out before as I cannot be bothered to add each dividend seperately at the time it was paid / reinvested so all dividends are assumed to be reinvested at the cob price yesterday.

One stock was taken off the market (ISAT) so the proceeds were deemed to be reinvested on the final day into ATST shares at the high of the day according to HL ATST chart.

My other holdings remain as they were. I still have about 14,000 shares in VIN and my granddaughter almost 6,000. I know that you sold out of your holding but I am convinced that they will have proved to be a really profitable investment by the time they are due to be redeemed at NAV.

Remembering that somebody compared the value of their holdings to the Boris bounce / Santa rally I thought that I would do something similar so took the “total book value” of everything I hold / own including cash, bank balances and "reserves"at cob on 11th December (the day before the actual election) to cob yesterday. My total wealth has increased by 5.53 percent over the past 16 days after anything I have physically spent in the meantime.

Wishing you a successful and prosperous New Year

Best regards

TJ


#3320

Hi @trader_jack, Hope you enjoyed your Xmas with the family, but it can be nice to come back home and get some peace and quiet afterwards !.

Sounds like you might have added a lot of things into your calculation other than just your investments ?. The figure of 20%+ gain that you gave for your IT investment I can well believe as you made that change well over a year ago and many things have done very well in the last year (especially since the election !). I can’t remember what your stocks you held before but I find it hard to believe that they have made a loss after the recent surge in the stock market. I used to have a mainly single stock based portfolio as you know, I still have my spreadsheet which I can use to value it as of now. I have supplemented this with details of every dividend that would have been received on every stock since. The result of this calculation up to the point of the election was that the stock portfolio was just behind my current portfolio. But now since the Boris bounce the old stock portfolio is about 4.5% ahead of my current one - many of the stocks I had have gone up significantly.

I do not regret my portfolio changes, and I won’t be going back completely. But monitoring this old portfolio and comparing it day by day with my current one has demonstrated to me that there IS additional value to be gained by holding single stocks (extra risk as well obviously and not so good when markets are falling). But when things are going well the stock portfolio outperforms. That’s my experience FWIW.

ATB

Pref


#3321

Sticking to my gut feeling

Buy all the UK unloved stocks

2020 is the bounce back year

Watch this space


#3322

What UK stocks are “unloved” and what exactly does that mean?
What are UK stocks bouncing back from?

We’ve had the Election blip.
Are you unaware of the FTSE100 and 250 value compared to history?


#3323

Hi @regardless, Well we’ve had a pretty amazing and election extended santa rally, the FTSE 100 has been up every single day:-

FTSE 100

and the FTSE 250 up most days…

FTSE 250

Personally come next week I’m expecting a bit of a return to normality and quite likely a bit of a move down if anything. Just my gut feeling supported by a “this cant go on forever” kind of view.

Could be wrong as always. Hey I might even buy some Lloyds if the price goes low enough to tempt me.

ATB

Pref


#3324

FTSE 100 is mostly made up overseas earning companies i.e. miners and have enjoyed the a nice rise since 2015/2016

Most UK Domestic stocks after 2015/2016 have had poor run

Catch up time :slight_smile:


#3325

You might be proved right @regardless but I’m not convinced. A look at the FTSE250 over the last 11 years (as below) shows that each of 2015, 2016 and 2017 saw increases to the FTSE250.
Notably, 2018 was going relatively smoothly too until in Q4 worries of a “no deal” departure from the EU came to the fore again (not purely “no deal” fears admittedly but this was a significant part of it) which wiped off 14% of the value.
Recovering from that took most of 2019 and the Election blip has ensured that even a monkey with a pin would have had a stellar year.

So you have to ask yourself… will the fears of a “no deal” departure at the end of the transition period return in Q4 2020? Will we have another 14% reduction to cap off the coming year?

And what is going to drive the market up? People thinking that UK shares are “unloved”?
Maybe instead they will look to Q4 2018 and the risks to UK business of departing with no EU deal.

I did ask you before… how sure are you that the UK will negotiate a comprehensive trade deal with the EU before end of 2020? Above 90%?
Personally, I put that prospect at below 10% likely. We will have to see how the markets price it later in the year.


#3326

Hi Westlock

We all just guessing

100% of traders are Bears ( Grim Reapers )

100% of Investors are Bulls ( Rampers / believers )

Keep it simple, if all goes pear shaped, I will just pick up The Lloyds Dividend to pay my bills in 2020

EXAMPLE HERE

That no-one really can call the market

We all agree Sol is a great trader and makes ££££

Just look at the Barclays Prediction Competition whole for 2019 he probably just been average, so even the good call traders are just guessing their way round the stock market

keep Smiling :slight_smile:

All good things come to those who wait


#3327

[Hi @regardless,

Yes it’s true there is never 100% certainty when investing, you take your view of the market, place your bets and take what’s coming, That’s why in many ways I invest in things that pay high dividends as at least receipt of those is relatively guaranteed. Of course the longer that you’ve been around, and the more you know and understand about how the market operates the greater the probability that any given investment that you make will succeed – but can never guarantee it. You can always be 100% wrong with very little difficulty.

As the song says:-

You’ve got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run……

Ahhhh if only that were true. You just get older….

ATB

Pref


#3328

Guess we were both right!
It did see 66 first and has not seen 55 again, I doubt if it ever will.
And at 66 it made a cracking short.

Resolution for new year - avoid discussion boards.
plm


#3329

I have thought and thought and thought about this.

The background to using an extract from another site is twofold:

1: I was castigated for using the quotation marks in the expression ‘ “certain” ‘ in a post on this board when referring and replying to posts by @SOI regarding the potential price of Lloyds. It was suggested that if I posted in this way on another site I would be summarily banned. I apologised.

2: I have seen so many references, invitations, recommendations etc to this other website on this board that I decided to have a look.

Following from this second point:

3: yes, I created two logons using two of my email address as I completely messed up the first logon and found I could not use it again.

4: I found that the other site is not suitable for me so I have tried to remove the second logon. I should be grateful is you would remove all records relating to me. I made no posts. You have my email addresses if you need to contact me.

5: I am surprised that you refer to the other site as private. There are at least 75 references to it on this public site. The registration process is no more rigorous than that required for making comments on this public site. I did not get the impression that it was private.

6: I searched for the other site in Google - it was the first item listed. The second item returned was an invitation by yourself on iii in 2015 to anyone to look at the site and make feedback.

5: As I explored the site I was shocked to find the post shown with the words 55 will be seen. (This was in line with similar comments on this site - Nov 6 post - 55 and lower beckons, and Nov 8 post - heading to its appointment with 55). This is exactly what I understood @SOI was saying in his posts when I used the expression ‘ “certain” ‘ and for which I offered an unreserved apology. In the circumstances I now think I was very badly treated. (Incidentally, research reveals that quotation marks should not allows be assumed to be a direct quote).

As to your other remarks:

6: I do not regard my email addresses as private and anyone who wishes to communicate with me that way is welcome to do so. Attaching email addresses to contributions on all public forums would be a step in the right direction, as would using real names rather than fictional names.

7: My IP address is in the range 192.168.0.1-254 at home, at a hotel in Geneva or in a chalet in the French alps. This is allocated by DHCP on a router. This is a private range used by most home routers and is not addressable. There would be no value in revealing it on the internet.

8: Would revealing any truly private information, e.g. name, address, age, date of birth and so one, not contravene GDPR rules and result in the site being shut down?

9: The image I copied from one site to another did not reveal any personal or private information. It did not reveal the name, addresses, age, gender etc of the poster and the material posted could hardly be regarded as private as the same poster effectively invited anyone to use the other site in his post on the iii site on Sep 9 in reply to swamp_rat in the discussion Share price action/patterns/banking news/interest rates.

In the circumstances I shall not offer any further apology. I shall never visit the other site again as its content is irrelevant to me. Accordingly you can rest assured that I shall never copy anything from the other site ever again.

I would suggest that the other site is never referred to again on this site.

I shall make one or two more posts on this discussion topic and then mute it to avoid making further posts and potentially upsetting others.


#3330

Made it through most of December at above 55.
Doubt if we shall see 55 in 2020.
Last post about 55.

plm


#3331

Somewhere on this board I posted that I still hold some at 26p. I think @PrefInvestor1 picked up the comment, but cannot find it now. For complete openness - my average is 52p.

For what it’s worth. I sold the 38000 at 56.43 so on todays price I am down about 12%. I split it three ways. NESF (up 4%), PHP (up 11%) and SRE (up 18%).

Time will tell if this move was wise.

I have said enough on this topic and probably on the board. Probably more than enough. So its Goodbye, and a good new year to everyone.

plm

edit NEST to NESF


#3332

Hi Pelim, where to start ? Maybe you should have looked at the first point of call for new members on barcplus ? ie the board statement and rules.

1 I know nothing of this so can’t comment.
2 That’s how it works, send invites,see if anyone interested,build a good squad of posters.
3 Fair enough
4 That’s fine ,thanks for looking anyway. I’ll carry out your request.
5 see 2.
6 The links you found were invites to barcplus on public boards. no surprises there.
5 again ? I’ll need to refresh my memory on that point.

6 e-mail addresses on a private board are expected to be kept private by admin and members alike. The rest of your points in 6 make you a hackers dream.

7 You need to learn more about IP addresses. You quoted your internal DHCP router address,not the one that could actually give away your location.

8 My point exactly .

9 What you did was trolling. I refer you to the Board Statement and Rules again.

I for one won’t be getting upset. soi for another would quite happily continue your lloyds discussion on barcplus or anywhere really to discuss your points further.

No need to offer an apology,not this late in the day. Worse things happen at sea.

Enjoy the rest of the holidays and have a prosperous New Year


#3333

That used to be the practice in the early days of the internet but criminals spider the net for phishing scams etc and pressure groups would use a single e-mail address to take down servers just to get at one person. They certainly effectively close down an e-mail address from use, even with all the filters now in place because of this initial folly.

I wouldn’t reveal any personal e-mail address on the web that can be read by a spider-bot if I wanted to continue to use that address in the future.


#3334

hi Pelim,

Season’s greetings to you.

I agree with most of what your post said but with some reservations.
My ability with the technological world is strictly limited. I have mastered the on/off switch but that is about it. Even the tv/sky remote can baffle me at times.

Like you I was intrigued by the Lemon Fool / Barcplus site (they are the same aren’t they?) but have long forgotten my password so decided that was the cue that I did not need to bother with it. It did seem to contain many posters who had been banned by this site.

Whilst I agree with you “Attaching email addresses to contributions on all public forums would be a step in the right direction, as would using real names rather than fictional names.” I think that the practice would be too difficult and would almost certainly encourage hackers and others who would wish to make use of your e-mail address that would not be in your interests. Your personal details are private and should remain so. Just consider how “liking” a product or whatever on some social media sites mean that your e-mail address is invaded and that every e-mail address that you have ever had contact with on your machine gets an e-mail advising you to purchase /like whatever it was.

It happened to me once: I discovered e-mails purporting to have been sent by me to about 500 e-mail addresses that my computer had stored over the time that I had that particular machine!

You mention the GDPR rules that were introduced quite recently but please consider that these rules were made by politicians and it may only a matter of time before the law of unintended consequences have a detrimental effect on this law.

Nowadays I will not go into any site that requires my e-mail address and a password unless I absolutely need to. Whatever I am looking for I will try to find another site for that information that does not require my details. I have a small program that deletes all cookies on a daily basis apart from three programs for malware / security /general safety, hopefully these will give me some protection against any problem that might crop up.

Although, as I have said, I can agree with a lot of your post please be careful about what you wish for.

Happy New Year

TJ


#3335

Hi trader_jack, just to correct you , barcplus is NOT the same site as Lemon Fool. I am not aware of any poster on barcplus who has been banned by ii. I haven’t even heard of Lemon Fool.


#3336

Hi Vtec,

Not banned permanently, but one poster was certainly suspended for a very long time. We even had to get a petition together with a number of signatories asking ii to allow SBK back to posting on here. True story. LOL! - Regards.


#3337

Hi vtecgrin,

I am happy to stand corrected but it certainly was the barcplus site that I was referring to. Not sure where Lemon Fool came into it though but I am now fast approaching the age where a new memory would not go amiss. Are part used ones ever likely to be available I wonder.

Happy & prosperous New Year to you.

TJ