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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#3478

Thank you for this


#3479

Because the risks have been realised, at least in part, with Brexit coming followed by an economic downturn and inevitable interest rate cuts, hence slashing a retail bank’s bread and butter.

On top of that there is still the very real risk of a crash out No Deal on 31 Dec 2020 in which case you will see UK retail banks really dive.

The good news is, perhaps, one third of the population paid for Christmas on credit. LLOy will make money on that, provided not too many of them default when their employee ups roots and moves to the continent where the bulk of its customers are.

None of this should be a surprise, its been predicted continually since the referendum campaign.


#3480

sometimes you get what you voted for. A 20% pay cut.


#3481

Yes, but surely not those investing their money in the stock markets?


#3482

I am afraid LLOY is not going anywhere
The business left for UK banks is to squeeze current customers ransom with higher interest rates - UK banks still refusing to lower interest rates for small and majority of people businesses while the base is going down and has been lower for a long while.
UK Economy is going to get ripped to say the least. Get ready, its gonna get messy


#3483

3i? Bought the IPO @272p if I remember correctly. Added more in the after market. Sold 2 or 3 years later at about @1300p. 5 Bagger. Lovely Jubbly.


#3484

Hi @frog_in_a_tree, Well you asked for comments on your choices so here are some:-

  1. I’m not sure what your investment strategy is, are you investing for income, growth, both, or just topping up things you already hold ?.
  2. Lots of pharmaceutical companies in your list, presumably you see drug makers as a good investment ?.
  3. Many of the stocks on your list are currently at or close to all time highs, so there has to be a risk that they will fall back if you buy now eg AZN, GSK, HIK, DCH & SN.
  4. In fact the FTSE 100 as a whole is not far from its all time high of 7900ish, only a few percent away. Many other markets are also close or even above their all time highs. In my plans for 2020 I have personally decided to only invest in defensive things offering high yields to try and gain some protection from a correction should we get one.
  5. Quite a few of your stocks have very poor yields especially HIK, DCH and SN. Personally I think even GSK and AZN offer too low a yield for my liking. Obviously RDSB, TRIG and MARS are ok on that front.
  6. I thought you were already well stacked with RDSB do you really want to buy more ?. Also the share price has been in the doldrums for a while and I see little sign of it improving. Personally I’d like to see it lower before I would buy more, but that’s just me.

I don’t see putting new money to work in the markets being at all easy right now for the reasons that I have outlined, but these are just my personal views and you are quite entitled to feel differently.

I wish you the best of luck whatever you decide to do. Your money your call as always…

ATB

Pref


#3485

Well said Pharma is very difficult option


#3486

How else do you respond top someone who says ‘i’m a happy-go-lucky-guy’ and I don’t want to hear why things might go wrong with the company in which i have 90% of my life savings., but I think Brexit will make Britain Great again?


#3487

just watch the chart instead, eh?


#3488

Hi Pref and BrownAdder.

Yes, pharma heavy. I am an investor for income who has a long time horizon. These pharma companies are vulnerable to a little bit of volatility but they will not go bust. They serve an aging market and the demand is not likely to fall. Under The Groper there is pressure for higher prices for pharma products so that too should underpin the share prices.

I appreciate that the market is at all time highs but my view is that you are better off invested than not. I am looking for long term yield without too much risk of losing the value of my investments. I don’t lose sleep and can tolerate a correction secure that in a short time the money will come flowing back.

Perhaps I am lucky that my income is secure and more than meets my needs. My investments are with hobby money so no serious risk for me personally.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#3489

Several million of us


#3490

The economy is tanking as Brexit approaches. Desperate interest rate cuts on the way.

It isn’t rocket science.


#3491

Politely or say nothing.


#3492

Another hit to LLOY and UK-centric retail banks.

It has just been announced that credit cards wont be allowed when betting in future. Another loss of revenue along with the likes of the new law coming in in April that restricts charges on unauthorised overdrafts.

A sensible law to protect a few thousand problem gamblers on the surface of things, until you consider that real problem gamblers don’t have credit cards. Millions of responsible gamblers that do wont be generating a small charge for the bank everytime they make a bet in future.

They can still use a debit card, but the bank doesn’t make as much and the consumer doesn’t get as much protection either.


#3493

I find Pharma difficult to pin down, that’s after my first degree and main professional life spent in healthcare.

Profitable business include cancer in all its form, emergency medicines, biotech - but then no single company is leading the sectors.

So while its easy to put Apple and Samsung as Mobile leaders, personally I cant find the leading business runners in Pharma

Safe but difficult for me.

Wonder how a Pharma ETF would compare


#3494

and @BrownAdder RE: Big Pharma

Their most lucrative patents have a shelf life though. Always something to watch for.

I’ve been successful with biotech funds, but never backing individual big pharma. Supposedly you’re supposed to look at the pipeline when investing in them, specifically looking for ‘blockbusters’ in Stage III testing. That is so expensive a process and taken so long to get to they are usually certain that drug will pass.

However, last time |I bet on that with GSK the 3 different stage III drugs they had on test came out showing no improvement in patient outcomes outside the statistical margin of error. All were dropped and so was the share price on the news.


#3495

I suspect this article was written by @regardless given the target share price (well, give or take a penny)
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/happens-think-lloyds-share-price-141035690.html


#3496

Analysts! Ha! On the one hand they say the UK focused banks will get hit hardest if (when?) the economy slows down following Brexit but also that they have the least exposure to Europe so are not so impacted - truth is, even though LLOY have little direct exposure to Europe, many of their customers do! Articles like this are, to me, just plain wishful thinking but highlight the fact that no one really knows anything for sure…other than no one knows which implies uncertainty which is considered risk by the market meaning it will want a higher return for taking the extra perceived risk, meaning a weak share price which is unlikely to recover much until that uncertainty is removed.

My opinion: the harder the Brexit, the worse the effect on the UK, at least in the short-term which means worse for LLOY.

Don’t worry, America will give us a great trade deal? Given Mr Trump’s America 1st, blatant protectionist agenda, the ripping up/unilateral rewriting of NAFTA, the ongoing disputes with China etc etc etc, I don’t doubt it would be a great deal - great for America, awful for the UK. They would basically have us bent over the proverbial barrel so are very unlikely to be gentle based on seeing how they have treated trading partners recently.

Trade deals take ages to sort out so the best we can hope for in the short-term is merely to roll-over any existing EU deal then, over time, try to renegotiate where possible but that is a long-term thing. Very long-term.

Strange that the main advocates of harder Brexit are all fairly wealthy guys who, even if there are significant financial repercussions, are pretty immune. On paper they might get hurt but in practice in daily life, zero impact.

On this one Mr Farage reminds me of Alex Salmond w.r.t. Scottish independence - both pretty much admitted it had little to do with the economy but all to do with the politics. Mr Salmond didn’t care if the rest of Scotland had to live in mud huts as long as Scotland became independent. Mr Farage is no different w.r.t. Brexit.

Anyway, no one knows very much for certain other than there is loads of uncertainty. Fear, uncertainty and doubt - 3 things a stock market never likes.

Regards,
ITDYA


#3497

CRIKEY down to low 58s now

What the hell

you robbing Barstalls :wink: