LLOYDS is going to FLY



Try being polite regardless, or say nothing at all, as Pref recommends. He’s good at saying nothing politely.

Anyway, this is not worth buying - with safety - until it gets to 55 now. Apart from the well known economic headwinds facing the banks, especially this one, there is a talk of a divi cut. Such a development would hole LLOYDS below the waterline.




Think what is that Big bank sells to individuals and small businesses as products which is their monopoly?

Everything else is available from neo banks except for Mortgages ?

How well is Mortgage market doing ?



That’s spot on. I have accounts with a range of banks but day to day I use Starling Bank which is super efficient. It has added advantages too such as being able to move pounds to and from Euros instantly and cheaply. A phone is all you need, not a High Street branch these days. If you speak to a human being in a bank any decision they make will be run through some algorithm on a computer anyway.




Well @SBK I don’t think that anyone should be making impolite, aggressive or excessively confrontational posts – whoever they are. What on earth is the point in that ?.

If this board turns into Brexit wars then I shall just cease to operate here and continue saying nothing, but politely, elsewhere……



and they’re all buying EU citizenship one way or another as well. They wont be touched at all by the debacle.


Gosh, I’m desolate.

You’ve already done that once before yet here you are again. Are you one of these professional resigners who join organizations so that they can later take the huff and then withdraw their presence with great fanfare? Every group of people has them.



P.S. Brexit stinks.



I know you’ve some sound reasons (as explained on BARC+) for the strength of your feelings against Brexit & hence your occasional ill-temper that at times seems indiscriminate. I see where it stems from. However, from what I see, Pref appears to be one of ii’s more polite, level-headed posters, who gives his time to share his investment strategy & related views. His overall contribution seems as well considered as any views I’ve read on ii. That he has no interest in the Brexit debate seems more than fair enough, not least as we have another BB dedicated to that highly divisive topic. No need to rile the guy.

As for LLOY’s: you may be right re circa 55. There are fillable gaps below. Hence I’m holding back from re-adding a 4th tranche. However, though well invested in it, these days I barely glance at the SP more than once a day, if that. Unless we have highly significant fresh macro news or a financial report, anything else that happens has little-to-no bearing on my longer-term view. - Regards.


I tend to agree but it is what we have so just have to make the best of it. I’m resigned to the fact that it is beyond my control, that the people driving it much prefer to be big fish in a small pond where their position cannot be effectively challenged. They have independent wealth and, without outside influence, complete control. With no military threat from outside, it’s perfect for that elite. Economic benefits to the masses has never been their true aim even if they had to promise it to swing the deal.

Read any real history and it’s obvious that control and strength (power?) comes from unity and size. Not saying we’re in that environment but Genghis Khan and the Mongol power came from uniting tribes, not dividing them - OK, pretty ruthless way to unite people by executing all that oppose! Maybe Mr Rees-Mogg would approve but we have moved on. More recently the Allies in WW2. Individually they got picked off, together with some serious US muscle as backup and the Russians being prepared (forced?) to fight to the last man, we got on top in the end.

But this is where we are now, this is the situation we need to deal with.

ITDYA, resigned to working together to make the best of it, too late to stop it.


Well @SBK I come here to have sensible investment discussions with some other posters on this board some of whom I have known for a long time.

If you think I am a fan of Brexit then you are 100% wrong. But I DO respect other peoples rights to have their own opinion even if it is something that I personally don’t agree with.

But I’m not going to get drawn into a pointless “yah boo sucks” type exchange with you. Sadly I can no longer put you on “ignore”, but from this point onwards I will no longer respond to anything that you post.

Goodbye SBK



Yes, an interesting historical figure Ghengis. Did you know that the carbon in the Earth’s atmosphere fell by 14% by the end of his reign due to his extermination of enemy peoples and no doubt their animals?

Currently, one thing is for sure, Brexit is not going to unite anybody: a majority 1.8 million more people voted for parties who promised a second Referendum during the General Election, every city in the country voted for control by either Labour or SNP candidates except Stoke. The divisions between the 4 nations, the north and the south, the old and the young have been exacerbated into a chasm and will last for a generation.

But I agree that we have to make the best of it and that is why I am mainly short in the market. It might be too late to stop the “Headline” Brexit but there are plenty of ways to try and sabotage it.





Didn’t say it Brexit would unite, very divisive since the moment Mr Cameron agreed to a referendum. Divisive before hand to be honest when they wouldn’t. But it is done even if i and ts not dotted/crossed. Don’t know what the final outcome will be.

In the meantime… fear, uncertainty and doubt.

Me, despite I know the market hates all 3, not prepared to go short. If one thing of trying/thinking about timing the market for the last 30 years has taught me is that I’m not very good at it, 51/49 at best, absolute best, definitely not statistically significant.

So I’m just in, full tilt, pretty much the whole time, zero leverage, zero borrowing, just in for the roller-coaster. Stops on the way down do tend to make me almost automatically more defensive and running my winners almost always makes more growth oriented on the way up but that’s just trading discipline; it can take a long time before it makes a significant difference.



All this talk of Dividend cut ??


Good Save the Queen and regardless retirement :slight_smile:


A modest divi cut of say 25% might be seen by the market as a prudent move. If it was to occur I think a dip in the SP at that time would only be short lived. It could already be priced in? The best that one can hope for is a stabilization around 60P. Lloyds is not going to go gangbusters any time soon.




@regardless where exactly have you seen all this talk of a dividend cut - where should I look for it?




Regardless’s source appears to be an earlier comment from SBK. However, SBK’s source must be Motley Fool as to the best of my knowledge no-one else has commented about a divi-cut being imminent. :slightly_smiling_face: - Regards.


No, that was not my source. I’m a bit busy now but I’ll look it up later.

However, briefly, upon reflection I don’t think that the market would take any divi cut of less than 50% seriously, a slashing by a mere 25% would just lead to more drift.




Hi @jackdawsson, thanks for your response. The only mention of dividend cut I’ve seen anywhere was by @frog_in_a_tree a couple of days ago …


Hi @KD01,

Thanks. I saw Fiat’s comment prompted by an article about expected staff bonus-cuts. I get the impression that it’s his opinion only, no disrespect to Fiat or anyone else. I’m also not saying it certainly won’t happen. Only that I’ve not seen any credible market sources suggesting it. Usually, there are leaks about anything really significant prior to an update.

If it happens, as disappointing as it’ll be, I’ll 100% continue holding as I did throughout past challenges to eventually book profits. As mentioned earlier, I intend re-adding a 4th tranche on further dips. - Regards.


As long as the Lloyds Banking Groups Annual Dividend is above 3p

I can be the homemaker and enjoy my early retirement



Thanks again Jack for your thoughts. Like you I hadn’t seen anything even hinting at a cut which is why I felt the need to ask the question of @regardless, just in case I had missed something. No doubt it’s fiats opinion or maybe not even that, just opining…

I doubt very, very much that the Divi will be cut. Whenever they speak about the Divi both Horta and Culmer go to great lengths to refer to it as being progressive and sustainable. It has been progressive, perhaps not as progressive as I would have liked, and it is sustainable given the dividend cover so to cut the div at the first sign of trouble (ppi), and it’s trouble that we know has now ended, would cut across everything they have been at pains to say and the image of prudence they have promoted. I think a cut would just blow them out of the water and probably Horta as well.

Hi @regardless I think your Divi is safe and I expect 2.24pps in May making 3.36pps for 2019. I expect a 5% increase on that figure for 2020 as profits after tax get back to about £5b…
Regards all