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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#3518

Pure speculation about a divi cut on my part. It was just that I thought that is staff bonuses were to be cut that it would be unfair if shareholders still got their payout.

Cheers,

Frog


#3519

Hi @regardless, My view is that the LLOY dividend is probably safe, dividend cover was high last time and drastic things would need to have happened to the profits to make it unaffordable. Obviously PPI is a threat but then they cancelled the buyback programme to pay for that I think ?. Like KD01 I am expecting a dividend of 2.24p in May, double the Interim figure of 1.12, XD in April and dividend announcement towards the end of Feb. I note that the final dividend was announced around the 20th Feb last year (according to ADVFN) so not that long to wait for you to find out for sure.

For the future quarterly dividends beyond that the Lloyd RNS on this topic can be found here:-

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/LLOY/14075842.html

As 20% of an estimated total DPS of 3.36 for 2019 is 0.672p that implies 3 quarterly dividends at that figure plus a final dividend announced with the FY results based on company performance.

ATB

Pref


#3520

Anything but progressive dividends will see Lloyd’s very negatively in my opinion. Especially if 20th Feb 2019 results are poor.

We know Q3 was horrid with I think profits down 97%. Q2 was no beauty either as in the link below, down, down n down.
And Q1 was underwhelming again linked below.

55p may be a ceiling soon.

Q2
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/ii-view-lloyds-bank-friendless-results-day-ii508832

Q1
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/lloyds-banking-group-q1-results-analysis-ii508171


#3521

Well dafter things have happened @swamp_rat and it might well ùtouch 55 but I doubt 55p will become a ceiling. A fair value on forward divi, assuming the market requires a risk/reward ratio of 5.5%, would be 64p so I expect it not to drop much lower than it has today, but as I said in an earlier reply to @regardless, it will hover below 60pps until Q4 results are announced whereupon it will rise Phoenix like to 63pps and the results will bask in its glory and the punters will feel happy and the BoD will feel job well done. More smoke and mirrors…
Cheers
K


#3522

But how can 2019 be any cop after Q’s 1, 2 & 3


#3523

I agree Swampie, the PPI disappointments are likely to weigh on the results.

Cheers,

Frog


#3524

That’s why I think only think left in the bag is progressive divi’s frog


#3525

I still think it is a risky call in terms of morale to cut staff, including basic grade staff, bonuses if unearned shareholder divis are unaffected.

Cheers,

Frog


#3526

Most Staff are also shareholders thanks to the sharesave schemes

Let’s not get carried away here Lloyd’s staff bonuses are no Goldman Sachs


#3527

You could have a point there frog, in which case, poor divis, poor results and poor staff bonuses. Is flybe going to be the only one. Not suggesting Lloyd’s in trouble but how healthy is the uk


#3528

Hi @swamp_rat

Well don’t forget that lloy made just under £2b profit after tax in Q1,2 and3 and that was after taking a £2.45b charge for ppi. I.m expecting £1.2b profit after tax in Q4 ((no further ppi charge) which would take us to £5.6b for 2019 year with ppi stripped out. That is nearly 10% up on 2018 excluding ppi - a decent performance I think and given that ppi is finished now and we can look forward to ~£5.4 b profit after tax in 2020 thus cementing the dividend cover the divi looks secure and 64pps fair value looks justified. Why should the sp hover below or around 60pps and then rise in the lead up to results (?)- Kidology dear boy, kidology…
ATB
K


#3529

You put a good argument forward KD, and yes we’ve seen these games by MM’s before.


#3530

Britain’s largest retail banks have been forced to halt processing foreign currency orders after a cyberattack on exchange provider Travelex.

Computer systems at the travel money firm have been down for more than a week since a malware attack on New Year’s Eve, leaving Lloyds, Barclays, HSBC and the Royal Bank of Scotland, among others, unable to process transactions.

The hackers have reportedly demanded $6 million in return for encrypted customer data. But in a statement late on Wednesday, Travelex said the system had been taken down as a “precautionary measure” following the discovery of the virus, and that its investigation had shown that customer data had not been compromised.

“We have now contained the virus and are working to restore our systems and resume normal operations as quickly as possible,” the statement said, adding that “Travelex’s network of branches continue to provide foreign exchange services manually.”

The attack was carried out by a ransomware gang known as Sodinokibi. The hackers told the BBC that they have downloaded 5GBs of customer data and plan to sell it online in six days’ time, unless Travelex pays the ransom.

Travelex said it is in discussions with the U.K.’s National Crime Agency (NCA) and London’s Metropolitan Police, both of which are conducting criminal investigations.


#3531

This is old news (last week), so old that I’d forgotten about it. The 6 day ransom period must be up by now. I wonder whether they’ve paid or not. The fact they are down is affecting all the banks and money points. Most have switched to other providers or only in house transactions.


#3532

HI @j_Westlock, Well neither the FTSE 100 and 250 look to be doing much, index levels not changed a great deal in the last 5 days. Within the FTSE 100 though some things have been doing very well housebuilders (up a lot), utilities, pharma, tobaccos and some doing pretty poorly notably financials including banks, assets managers, insurers and the like.

I had hoped to buy SSE today when they went XD but I’m not paying 1460 when they were 1408 just the other day. Similarly given up on buying a housebuilder as their shares have all moved up a lot, sort of 8-10%ish in some cases. Figure maybe Ill wait till one of those big dividends get paid (several due to go XD in April) and buy then when the price is down. If I can be bothered to wait that long……

Been watching those ETFs you posted about the other day. Pretty up and down story there. HRUB looks to be doing OK.

Still got some cash to deploy and am still pondering……

ATB

Pref


#3533

One thing I know

PPI is coming to an end in 2020 so no more Billions and fooking BILLIONS spent on PPI Provisions after 2020 so the Groups final profit will increase naturally

BTW I am looking at buying another £10k worth if this sell-off continues

Lloyds share prices in March over the last 5 years … it will turn once the city’s mates have filled their boots IMHO

March 2015 81.50p
March 2016 72p
March 2017 69p
March 2018 68p
March 2019 64p

Crazy thing is Lloyds Banking Group is now in a better place than 5 years ago IMHO


#3534

Why?

IMHO,

SBK


#3535

PPI expired in 2019 :wink:


#3536

Sadly this what we can expect short term … The Market made this share a traders share now

Honestly, I believe there must be a small army of retail investors trading Lloyds Shares now

We been stuck in a 5 year trading range (49p-69p)

Good news the Dividends are OK to getting good now

I expect a breakout in 2020 into the 70s again, thanks to the Quarterly Dividends, as its going to take great skill to trade around the quarterly Ex-Dividend’s dates going forward ( just ask Monty trading HSBC shares poor fella burnt out )


#3537

Yes, sorry about that. I saw 'Thur 5:47am" but missed the 9th Jan! (on CNBC)