LLOYDS is going to FLY



I agree SBK. LLOY is in a significantly worse place than it was 5 years ago. Back then there was optimism, Brexit was seen as a pipe dream of a minority - turned out that perception was wrong.

LLOY may have managed to outlive PPI claims but it’s seen very much as a very slow growth, lumbering old giant with relatively high costs relative to newer competitors in an isolated (how isolated we have yet to find out) economy that’s unlikely to see significant growth it the immediate future - all LLOY can do is lose as little market share as possible in market place with precious little growth where, despite it’s significant size, can’t dictate pricing, it’s all too competitive.

P/E of high single figures, the SP around 60p underpinned by the dividend, i.e. dull, dull, boring but decent cash sounds not unreasonable, not until the waters clear.

Definitely I can see a place for it in a portfolio where I want some (my assessment) solid income so I can take some low dividend but capital growth risk elsewhere, that always works for me.

But LLOY on it’s own… 5.5% yield is far better than the rate on cash I can get. Risk of capital loss is always there but I think the dividend is relatively solid (famous last words, do not tempt fate!) albeit slim to no chance of any real growth but I can live with some of that as this isn’t the one I’m expecting to do anything much other than just churn out cash.



True, but 5 years ago I don’t think the eventual huge levels of pay out were recognized. The economy was moving forward and uncertainty was not rampant. There will probably be a new banking scandal along soon to replace that one.

The position for UK - facing Lloyds going forward is an economy in recession and continuing investor uncertainty. The next barrel scraping BOE interest rate cut will leave less room for profit making. Cheap to run modern challenger banks are going to put High Street banks out to grass.

The only option for Lloyds to stay afloat is a dividend cut later or sooner or to be swallowed up by a giant American bank.




All good points ITDYA.

Given the poor outlook, likely bad figures and a complete lack of a vision for the future from Lloyds I see no reason for it not slumping sub 50 again in the coming months. That said I would take a trading punt at < 55 if seen. I now regret not shorting it at 62+ when it was on offer.




Probably me too as long as the dividend looks like it’s under no real threat. My perception, not market speak, analyst opinion on that one. My decision, my risk. As long as the numbers stack up, I tend not to care much what analysts think.

For me, with LLOY, I’ll settle for just the SP and the dividend growing by RPI. Relatively generous inflation proof cash is always hard to find!

I know, significant risks but maybe worth chucking a bit of it into the basket with other bits and pieces of low growth stuff, buy it, forget it, while spending my time and effort looking elsewhere for growth… spending or wasting is debatable when it comes to the outcome sometimes it seems but that’s the discipline of the stops; they are there for a reason.



See you both are just talking up next the trade to get in at a cheaper price



Tee hee… if only.

As if any comment on a discussion board amongst private investors could have the slightest impact on the SP of a £40bn market cap company. Volumes look relatively low but still way out of my league!



Yes, I noticed some of the house builders well up last few days.
I haven’t looked but are banks now approving more mortgages? Has something altered?
Or is this just the remainder of the Election spike playing out?
I’m now very cautious on any UK shares directly impacted by state of UK economy.

Personally, I’m not too interested in trading every day and I just position my portfolio to be diversified according to quotas in sectors I set periodically so I’m more interested in trends than volatility over days.
I think those markets I mentioned still have some way to go upwards… similarly, I see no reason not to use VUSA over next few weeks to months up to Election (at least) to catch the (probable) last increase in US market.



As well as


Thanks Trisco.

Reading those articles, it all seems Election-related and that effect can only last so long.
Was looking to see if there’s any chance of these stocks rising further but as we are approaching highs not seen since before the financial crisis and well exceeding pre-2016 levels then I’d more be looking to short these in a few weeks than go long.




Crikey, does goes to show how cheap Lloyds Shares

All I know I 1st bought Lloyds in May 2009 at 72p
today 57p 11 years later .

We need a break here

Our time will come , every unloved Dog has its day :slight_smile: surely ???

The funny thing is I somehow done alright on the original investment


Down the local clubhouse to meet up with a few Southend ole boys for a beer and just realised Lloyd’s ended the day up



Hi Again @J_Westlock, Did this chart comparing the FTSE 100 & VUKE with the FTSE 250 & VMID earlier.

Both spiked after the election and the FTSE 100 has stayed up but the FTSE 250 has fallen back. Strange as I thought it was the FTSE 250 stocks people were saying would benefit the most…?

As I said earlier the effects in the FTSE 100 seem very sector specific with outperformance in one area being compensated for by falls in other areas (leaving the FTSE 100 pretty much unchanged). So as I suspected ATM one is better off stock picking than betting on a UK index - well provided you pick the right stocks that is. My NG (utility) & RGL (REIT) are both doing OK.

I shall continue to follow your ETF picks for a while to see how they do, potentially interested in HRUB. Yes I can see that VUSA till the election sounds like a plan.

I dont want to trade every day either - and I’m not. But I still have some cash on hand and I like to be fully invested so am keen to find a home for it. But a defensive home and one that pays some dividends ideally.




Yes, interesting. Have you mapped the impact of GBPUSD or GBPEUR onto the FTSE 100 performance too YTD?


Not going to trade my 565,000 Lloyd’s shares

Played a blinder in 2019 IMHO

So happy

End of year dividend paid in May this year and 1st quarterly paid in June 2020

Buster my beautiful Parrot says stay firm lad


I noticed that some of the Renewables are heading a little downwards the last week or so eg. FSFL, NESF & TRIG

Any reason for that?


Yep… well there was a disastrous Q4 2018 dip so it flatters the 2019 calendar year increase somewhat… if you compare mid-Jan to mid-Jan then you’re back at the price you started at.


I just tried mapping that and there (still) does seem a good correlation to the $ rate and FTSE100 which might also explain some of the FTSE100 increase as almost a 1-2% drop in GBPUSD since beginning of year.


What I do know

Lloyd’s is cheap as chips

And I am a thicko investor

If I had half a brain hey

Turned 2500 Lloyd’s shares in 2009 to loads black horse dogs of war

Dog of a share


Well you were clever enough not to invest in Bombardier.


Never be greedy I say

I am happy

Natural born winner