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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#3658

US Markets selling off by ~1% so far this evening, not sure why. Coming our way Monday I’m sure (IG has the FTSE & STOXX 50 down 0.5% already).

Up one day down the next…!

Still I’m looking for some buying opportunities myself.

ATB

Pref


#3659

Hi All, Well I’m writing this at 23:30 on Sunday 26/1 and it looks like markets are getting spooked by the new virus and its rapid spread in China. US Futures down ~1% and IG has the FTSE down ~1%, the STOXX 50 down ~1.3% and the ASX 200 down ~1.8% ATM. I’m guessing the Far East markets will be down at least as much as these if not more when they open - but it is just a guess. Wouldn’t want to be holding airline or cruise ship type FTSE shares tomorrow (?) as people will be putting a hold on any travel plans I suspect. And I’m guessing oil will likely get thumped too ?.

Its early still though and things just might recover by the morning. Or they could get worse ???

Tomorrow might be an interesting day…

ATB

Pref

PS But of course most Far East markets are closed on Monday for the Chinese New Year. Even the Australian market is closed for Australia Day…
.


#3660

They got worse! The markets will recover.

Frog


#3661

Hi All, Well carnage today much as I expected last night. Anyway have taken the opportunity to dump my UKW and BSIF positions (reducing my overweight position in renewables) and have bought NRR (again), GLEN, MARS and PHNX with the proceeds. Various stock specific risks with these but I figured that today’s selloff discount made it worthwhile, 6%+ yield on them all. Should have bought GLEN when @Eadwig first pointed it out some weeks ago, but not too unhappy with 221.x.

US going down this PM and the Far East down some more probably when they come back after Chinese New Year (if indeed they do as China have extended their holiday I heard ?).

Personally hoping that this virus scare will soon blow over pretty quickly if it doesn’t get worse and start to kill lots of people. Travel is going to see disruption for a while now and Far East economies are certainly going to see disruption too (especially China and Hong Kong) - but developed markets not so much maybe ?.

Be interesting to see what US markets do this afternoon. US Futures are down less than the FTSE and European markets ATM, but that may change after the open…

ATB

Pref


#3662

January 28th 2019

Lloyds Share price 57p

12 months later

27th January 2020

Lloyds Share price 57p

What a wonderful 12 months we’ve had !!!


#3663

Hi, Spreadsheet Pref

Why did you dump UKW today

I was looking to buying some ? reading your previous posts on this thread

Why you gone all cold on UKW ?

Dividend soon as well ? or has it been cancelled


#3664

Just got home. I did expect carnage so nothing missed - sit quiet and wait, open a bottle of wine is my usual response to carnage. 4 up, 3 neutral and everything else down. HSBC was inevitable, BHP I can understand since China is the biggest consumer of foreign raw materials but AVST? Not sure why that got smacked so hard.

Bright-side? I have £5k+ of dividend accrual in both the ISA and the SIPP so can buy something cheaper tomorrow… maybe.

Regards,
ITDYA


#3665

Hi @regardless, I put most of my remaining cash into UKW as a temporary move hoping to pickup the dividend and some capital gain while I decided where I was going to properly invest the money. That put me WAY over-committed to renewables, like 21% of my portfolio. Given the drop today I decided to dump the two renewable holdings that have gone up the most and have the highest premiums by far - BSIF & UKW. I dont see either of these ever having a future much beyond 150 as if they get there the dividends will be reduced which will put off the income seekers. All of the other trusts are at much lower levels.

So to sum up:-
a) I was looking for an opportunity to move out of BSIF and properly invest the money that I temporarily put into UKW and today provided that opportunity and I took it.
b) I dont see either UKW or BSIF having a future beyond 150 at the very most. They are already sort of 144-147ish (or were earlier today) so I dont see them having much upside from here personally. Could be wrong as always.

I have taken a few risks by doing this, but have increased my annual dividend income by about £500 so I figured it was worth it. We’ll see I guess.

ATB

Pref


#3666

Thanks Pref :slight_smile:


#3667

Hi All, Not been a fun day portfolio wise, been watching a sea of red most of the time. Planned to have my regular walk to the pub this afternoon but by then it was raining pretty hard and I didn’t fancy it.

Anyway I happened on this piece while browsing which I found rather amusing, just make sure you read the text starting with “Getting there” till the end. Made me laugh anyway.

ATB

Pref


#3668

Fishing Rights in exchange for Financial Services access to EU.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/cdf8af0a-40fd-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433d


#3669

@PrefInvestor1
I added @221p also (added and sold when it was down to @212p which you mention). With China accounting for around 40%-50% of global copper demand all major producers, including GLEN, are going to be hit, and may well drop more if it goes on.

So far as I can tell from the news this morning, the holiday already extended to Feb 2 has now been extended to Feb 9 for some schools, universities and factories in China.

The world bank is already adjusting global GBP downwards due to the impact of this virus. I expect to see the oil price keep dropping as the news about the virus keeps getting worse.

I’m considering adding to my HSBA position. This whole virus thing isn’t going to help their Asian-facing business any.

Could be some great opportunities here, but not if we’re still talking bout it in 3 or 6 months as more countries around the world go through weeks of shut downs of any place, including work places, where people usually group together.

Anyone got a handle on who makes the best surgical masks to the necessary standard to stop a virus penetrating them? (and can they actually do that, or do they just reduce the risk?).

Anyone else got any obvious plays on this tragedy? (I’m talking going long, not shorting airlines or anything).


#3670

Even if we don’t realise it in the UK (apparently), the EU is well aware that no one wants to invest anew in fishing in UK waters alone. There just isn’t any profits there of any scale. Trading off fishing rights isn’t going to get the UK negotiators very far therefore.


#3671

Hi @Eadwig, Yes I’m concious of that as a significant risk. Taking the yield as consolation…

I still think that HSBA results in Feb are likely to be a train wreck. What with the trade war, HK situation and now the virus my guess is that it can only all add up to bad news. Could be wrong as always.

Renewables taken a steep dive today. Suspect it might have been triggered by the following citywire article (sorry you will need to register if you want to read it but its free).

I dont actually think that they are right as my understanding is that ATM all of the trusts are underpinned by assets that are subsidised for the next 15-25 years with RPI increases. But anyway something has spooked the market and the timing suggests it might be this ?. BSIF down from 145.5 yesterday to 132.5 today… Down 7% today.

These trusts have been trading at ENORMOUS premiums so i guess a correction at some point was likely. I sold 2 of my holdings yesterday (BSIF & UKW) and the rest this morning.

ATB

Pref


#3672

Hi Eadwig

Some are suggesting a N95 or N99 mask. 3M one of the largest manufacturers.
There is debate as to how effective any of these mask are.
Better than nothing ? Yes.

Link to an interesting piece for you

Here in Pattaya masks of any type totally sold out.
Some firms capitilised by increasing sell prices by 10 fold.

Sanitary hand gel apparently also sold out.
Number of confirmed cases in Thailand has jumped from 8 to 14 in the last 24hrs.
This govt. figures so multiply by a large amount to get nearer the truth.

Outside of China, Thailand regarded as most at risk.

This country disgusts me at times.
The PM ( unelected army general ) has announced it is 100% under control. BS.

The tourist minister has stated "Stay calm and keep spending "

The almighty baht rules.Money no.1

North Korea and Mongolia have closed their borders to Chinese.
Thailand should do the same.

In the street next to mine their are 3 very large hotels catering almost exclusively to Chinese tourists.
Some of the guests shop in a convenience store that I sometimes use.
All the Thai staff have been wearing masks for a few days now.

There seems to be a bit of an anti Chinese sentiment brewing.
There is a lot of sneezing and coughing going on although I put that down to the very high levels of pollution.

Nothing is being done.

Take care & ATB

soi


#3673

From what I read Soi, facemasks are not effective against airborne virus but are effective in reducing hand to mouth infection.

Frog in a tree


#3674

Hi Soi,

Good to see posting again. Not heard from you in a while. I hope your life flows well. Your name comes up often on the other forum. Always with due respect naturally, but also some concern.

I’ll be winding down my own activity elsewhere & focus more so on UKX on ii after 23/02. That’s simply because of greater convenience, ie. the added time taken finding corresponding entries one closes live, when also highly active via bi-directional trading. It can takes ages to find months-long entries on the other site.

Anyway, I hope you keep in touch. It’s always good to hear from you. - Take care & all the best!


#3675

It seems that regulators are looking to tackle Lloyds and some other banks on their proposed 40% interest rates for overdrafts. Quite right too! Why would they need to charge more than 5%? I wouldn’t want this to be done simply to pump up my dividends.

Frog in a tree


#3676

Hi Pref,

TRIG has taken a bit of a bashing this month and especially over the last few days. Possibly the market feels that the underlying assets don’t support the valuation. I will stick with it as renewables will have a growing future and the costs of generating power with sun and wind look to be getting cheaper all the time. Additionally, governments are going to be pressured by public opinion to do more to tackle climate change.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#3677

At least the Big Black Donkey is having a positive day - getting close to 2% up. Lets hope there isn’t a last half hour sell-off.