LLOYDS is going to FLY



Hi Trader, I was actually following on from a JackDawsson post but am more than happy for anyone to read. I hope you find A Hidden Life on somewhere near you. At nearly 3 hours it was a long watch but not at all tedious.




Well Jack, when the Liar Johnson junta have banned the BBC and C4 you’ll only be able to watch FOX News UK, Coronation Street, Love Island and Hollywood movies. There you will sit gawping at “Die Hard 14” and “Fast and Furious 17” while munching on chlorinated KFC and popcorn. Come to think of it, that’s what most of the British population already do…




JI Buns,

I maybe have missed something but I thought that Fox News was no longer available to watch in U.K.

Kind regards



True apparently. But I was musing that it’ll be back in the future when the further Americanisation of the UK happens after a one - sided deal with Trump.





Indeed. We’ve already seen a general dumbing-down across much of UK society & politics. Yet things could get even worse. Such are the superficial times we live in where few, outside of the quality press, even bother to dig beneath the surface of things.

No denying we’re already seeing alarming developments from Johnson’s government in their contempt for our long-established democratic institutions, including the recent banning of certain reporters from press briefings. It’s also obvious that they’re going to try & slowly grind down the BBC by starving it of vital funds. No doubt Cummings has a hand in this having seen how far-right US ideologist Bannon previously behaved when steering Trump to show similar contempt in the US. All without, so far at least, doing any great harm to his presidential prospects among core-supporters. Trump may win another term in office.

IMO, as awful as that would be for key global issues like the environment & greater democratic accountability, it also reflects the very sad state of things across much of the world.

Even though many poor Americans in Rust-Belt regions saw scant, if any benefits from Trump’s policies, most of which go to the already very rich, so dumbed-down has US politics in general become that many people seem not to care. Though they largely remain poor, ignored & no less ignorant, at least they can take some kind of pathetic consolation from the rise of base American Nationalism, as Trump plays upon.

Hence the importance of a strong, credible opposition emerging in UK well before 2024. As mentioned long before the GE outcome, I’ve no doubt we’ll have another EU Referendum within most of our lifetimes. But it won’t happen soon if Labour elects someone offering more of the same.

IMO, one can present some radical policies & still get elected in UK. For eg. I think most people will buy into renationalising our deplorable rail services, or even water services, for which there is no market competition. But the overall Manifesto has to appeal to moderate voters & for that it needs a Labour leader who’s significantly different to Corbyn. - GL.



Yes it looks like more Trump to come unless his hair falls out or he is driven past the wrong grassy knoll.

It is truly amazing that in a country of 330 million that the Democrats can’t find a good candidate to take on such a buffoon. There are loads of very smart and able people in the USA, at least in the coastal areas.




Pretty much agree with all that Jack.

The Labour manifesto was an ideological car crash which promised far too much and far too expensively. As a nation we mostly agree that renationalisation of the railways would be a good idea but with regard to the utilities as long as water flows and the fuel for our boilers arrives uninterrupted most people don’t give a fig about renationalisation. They want prices controlled which coukd be achieved through effective regulation.

Regarding transport, what a sad state we have come to. Bus and rail privatisation in the pursuit of profit has driven more of us into cars…and at what cost to the environment.

Certainly, Labour needs to break away from Corbynism but many Labour Left that I discuss this with have a problem with this. I actually think it woukd be a good idea for Labour to reappraise the Blair years. Aside from the Iraq war there were many achievements that made real differences to people’s lives. A bit of New Labour ethos could transform Labour’s electoral chances.


Frog in a tree


As day follows night a LLOY fall follows a LLOY rise.

I was hopeful this morning as there appeared to be good news on the horizon with coronavirus now being suggested could be under control. Pound was up. LLOY was up as a consequence by just over 1%. Come close of the market LLOY is down 0.63%. So from its peak today it saw a 1.75% decline!

At least RDSB was positive for the second day running.


Your comment on the Pound being up was spot on.
It’s very noticeable how the LLOY SP is moved around by GBP pairs: if you plot EURGBP, GBPUSD against LLOY then it appears to be the deciding factor in this company that’s a pure play on the UK mortgage market and whilst rates aren’t (yet) altering… and why it is still subject to Brexit volatility in the years when large trade deals are negotiated.
Bad news on trade deal==GBP lower==LLOY lower

Better hope for good news and Johnson doesn’t threaten to be found dead in a ditch.


Hi SkiKing,

TSB was also one of my first share purchases, but I was working for them at the time of the flotation in 1986, and I still have the boxed Sheaffer ballpoint pen and pencil set commemorating the event!

Staff were able to acquire more than the general public, but I didn’t hold mine for long, having been relocated by the bank about a year earlier and significantly increased our mortgage and other living costs!

I am not sure how efficient the Lloyds Banking Group is - the Lloyds bit may well be reasonably efficient, but not Halifax, Bank of Scotland etc.

When TSB and Lloyds merged, all the branches became LLoyds TSB for a while, then quite a lot of (but by no means all) were hived off to create the new “TSB” which is now in different hands.

The Lloyds branch where our accounts are held is an ex-TSB branch, but that will be closing later this year.

We use another branch (and the Post Office) much more than our own branch, so it is not a problem for us, but some will find the closure very inconvenient.

Although I never worked for Lloyds (or even Lloyd TSB), they pay my pension for the years I was with the TSB.

Although we could use debit or credit cards much more often, we also still like to use cash - why should the card issuers “know” how, when and where we are spending our money!

Surely in this instance it is as “Night follows Day” - the sun rises and falls - that Lloyds has followed suit!

It has been a glorious day here in the North of England followed by a magnificent sunset - even better than yesterday, which was also very good.

At least HSBC has risen each day this month, but it did reach an uncomfortable low last Friday!

The bank reporting season will soon be here, so it will be interesting to see what happens then, and shortly after.

I have read the various posts about WW1 with great interest, because a few years ago I sold a large 13-volume set of books about the Great War, which included lots of detailed accounts, maps and pictures - perhaps someone who posts here bought them!

Let us hope that we can enjoy any more years peace in Europe and other parts of the world, and that some of the awful things which happened in WW2 will NEVER be repeated!

All the best with your investments, but no point being too sentimental - we don’t own Lloyds shares, even though we bank with them and they pay me a pension!




Lloyd’s Banking Group needs to be broken up to be properly valued

Scottish Widows
Halifax plc
Bank of Scotland
Lloyd’s Bank

Market not having it IMHO she not sure how to value this leviathan

I was in Old Mutual Plc

They separated into 3

I over double my money within 18 months


Hi All, Tough day for FTSE stalwarts VOD and GSK today, both down significantly after posting their results. Both started the day well but turned negative late morning.

GSK has had a long term problem with earnings and has done nothing with its dividend for a while now. Apparently the company is splitting into two and doing some kind of deal with Pfizer ?. Guess they had to do something. Shares had been doing OK though at £18+ higher than I thought they’d get. Knocked back 4% today though. Guess the market digested their plan and didn’t like it much ?.

VOD results looked like more of the same to me. Revenues down in Spain and Italy, UK up a smidge and Germany flat. Not exactly shooting the lights out. Rest of the world a bit better, but Vodafone Idea remains a running sore. Got stuck with a £200M bill. to remove Huawei equipment from their network due to the UK Governments position on Huawei, ouch !. Tower spinoff coming soon, much promised for this. Much was promised for the Liberty deal though but I didn’t detect much impact on their revenue and earnings, in Europe anyway.

Still avoiding these two myself, GSK on limited upside and dividend too low. VOD on continued poor performance, both the company and the shares.

All small beer compared with Tesla though, up to over $900 yesterday, crashed back down some 17% today. Could be traders taking profits I guess, plenty there to be had……




VOD was worse than LLOY for me. Lost about 20% on the SP over the 2-3 years I held them. I did make most of that back in dividends though so it wasn’t a complete disaster. Still looking to get back in but the price would have to drop back to 140. The only thing they have got going for them at the moment is the spin-off of their masts. That should raise a bit of money which hopefully they use to pay off some of their debt.


Hi skiking37, Personally would not want VOD at any price, huge infrastructure expenses and too much debt as it is, no sign of revenues making any major positive moves, Vodafone Idea a disaster. Even the dividend isnt what it was… As Ive remarked many times before they seem to only sell expensive rolls- royce type solutions, Ive never been close to selecting them for any of my telecoms needs.

Not sure how this tower spin off plan will work. Presumably the towers and rest of the mobile infrastructure will be one company and the shops and customer facing piece another ?. And holders will get allocated shares in both. Sounds like an accounting exercise aimed at boosting their NAV to me with no obvious other benefits - unless the tower company is going to start providing the mobile infrastructure for other networks (which they already do of course). But they were on about infrastructure sharing in the trading update.

Anyway still not interested in them personally.




GBP down again today… so LLOY down. It’s not flying.
Up about 0.6% in last week… but could have got 8% on China recovery.



Following warnings from Tesla, FIAT Chrysler have now announced that production may halt due to loss of parts from China within ‘a matter of weeks’. Hyundai in Korea have already suspended production and several others are expected to announce potential problems on the way, especilly those with ‘just-in-time’ production systems, which is most of them. I’ve heard nothing from Japanese manufacturers but I bet they’re even closer to problems.

Quality assurance practices dictate that every part in such a process has at least two alternate sources of supply, however this isn’t always followed up on or kept up to date and it is also possible that all alternates are in China anyway.

The auto industry shutting down around the globe for an indefinite period due to the Corona virus could well tip the balance in the world economy, more so than just about any other industrial sector I can think of.

As I have posted elsewhere the situation in China is likely to keep pulling down the price of both oil and copper, badly affecting the mining and oil and gas sectors and I fully expect other manufacturers besides autos, especially tech and mobile phones, to start giving warnings about component supplies in their forward guidance during results season.

This is going to introduce a measure of uncertainty across manufacturing businesses which will probably spread across the markets.

Personally I’m giving some serious thought about moving more into cash beyond the approx 30% position I currently hold.


Hi All, I see that housebuilders had a bad day yesterday, I have 7 on my watchlist and they were all down and some by quite a bit. BDEV was down over 4%, PSN by 1.5%. That’s despite what looked like a very positive trading update on 5/2, can’t immediately see any negative news anywhere so I’m unsure of the cause. Barratt mentioned making a small provision to cover removal of grenfell style cladding from some of their buildings, but only a small amount when compared to their profits.

Would have been a good day to buy your PSN @frog_in_a_tree, this isn’t really timing the market it’s just buying on a down day. No guarantee of not buying on an UP day with your free ii trades - and saving yourself 4% (as would have been the case for BDEV) is worth a bit more than a £10 trade.




Hi @Eadwig, Yes I can see the case for their being long term economic impact as a result of the disruption being caused by the virus. Far East markets down a bit today I note, but not affecting the GLEN SP ATM which is still on the up and almost 20p up now on when I bought.

I sold all my Far East stuff before the Chinese markets reopened but that plan hasn’t worked out too well so far. My two ITs (HFEL and AAIF) barely dipped and the same is true of my two ETFs (IAPD and SEDY). Still got most of the cash but did buy back into HFEL as I was able to buy at a lower price than I sold for. Think it’s too soon to jump back in 100% anyway as virus issues are far from over, as you point out,

The Apple stock price took a bit of a hit due to concerns with their Chinese supply chains and shop closures, but has recovered again now. Problem might well return in spades if the virus gets worse though. Still doesn’t seem to be killing many people, mainly only people with other health problems anyway by the sound of it. I saw one Chinese official on the TV comparing it with flu which has he reckoned has caused far higher infection/death figures just in America. Interesting point if true, but then flu hasn’t caused the economic disruption that the virus has…



PS HSBA results due out 18/2. What with the virus, HK riots and the trade war I’m still expecting a train wreck myself.


Remember they are due to put out results later this month and will have to give forward guidance on Copper which is now their largest revenue stream.

I’ve been following the figures (which some say cant be trusted) and it seems to have settled around a 2% mortality rate. However, the death of the 34 year old doctor being reported today is somewhat worrying, it seems unlikely that he had other health problems.

It is like flu, probably a medium-bad flu would kill 2% of infirm or very young people that caught it (I’m guessing at that). Of course, ‘Spanish Flu’ killed more people than the whole of WWI in 1918, some estimates are as high as 50m around the globe. For reasons never established, that virus killed mostly young adults. There is still plenty of time for Corona virus to mutate.

Rumour is that at least 10,000 jobs will be going in the restructuring plan due to be announced, I assume as part of the results. That plan is what I opened up my position on, which is currently 1% down I think.


LLOY flying again, down.

It gor vertigo after Wednesday s rise.
Gave back nearly half yesterday and carrying on giving even more back.

Usual behaviour, has not changed in ages.

On the Road to Nowhere springs to mind.