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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#3922

Hi Again @Eadwig, Well 10,000 jobs sounds like a lot but I guess its less than 10 per branch ?. Not that they have many people in their branches from what I recall - been into our local branch very occasionally (not for myself but my daughter has an account there). Mainly self service machines, few manned desks + the occasional floor walker.

Holding over results is always tricky, especially if there is a chance of a bad result. Had they made a standalone announcement of a re-structuring plan and job cuts then I am sure that this would have been well received and boosted the stock price. But if they come out with this announcement within the same set of results which are as bad as I expect them to be in both revenue and profit terms then I dont know that this will be enough to save them. And lets face it restructuring comes with its own set of risks doesnt it ?.

Housebuilders off to another poor start today I note:-

Only a couple of light years to go before I get interested though !!!

Anyway best of luck - as always.

ATB

Pref


#3923

@PrefInvestor1

I’m not currently holding any housebuilders. All cleared out. I have a single ‘build to rent’ REIT which has been well down but now recovered to around my holding price. News on rent inflation sounds positive for them. That is a long term holding paying over 5% yield which I’m happy to hold through the next decade.

I’ve posted somethng on the GLEN board for you which I hope you find useful.


#3924

Hi @PrefInvestor1

Regarding ETFs

Well I had some accrued divs and decided to give it a go. VEVE (Worldwide developed, priced and divs in GBP) annual fees 0.12%. Nothing wrong, all seems good, but during the research, well a couple of things surprised me.

I know we’ve had this conversation before about ITs vs ETFs; ETFs always have the lower quoted KIID relative to an ‘equivalent’ IT and I always argued it was because KIIDs was based on all sorts of inappropriate assumptions that always showed the more ‘modern’ Fund Management business in a more favourable light than ITs. The Association of Investment Companies whinged bitterly that the rules were arbitrary at times and made ITs include all sorts of transaction costs that, in reality, often didn’t exits… but hey, the huge political muscle of the giant ETF and OEIC providers (not suggesting there were any political contributions at any stage!) won the day and the politicians when with what was suggested - bright side is that at least the ETFs and OEICs (the vast majority of the market by size) have to play by the same rules even if (maybe?) they represent not quite such a level playing field for ITs - smaller part of the market (tell that to Berkshire Hathaway - an Investment Trust is what they are!)… I drift from my point.

VEVE is what I lifted. ATST is the IT I’ve had for years. Both global developed world investors, VEVE KIID 0.12%, ATST 0.90%, and when you look at the largest shareholdings, they have pretty fair match so instinct would suggest VEVE would outperform ATST by approx 0.75% pa… but it doesn’t. Chart below (I hope, not too practiced at this). Over 5 years ATST outperforms but I’d admit that 3 to 5 years ago would coincide with Elliot Investors having a dig at ATST and forcing the discount down from mid-teens to 5%ish which would explain a 10% out performance.

VEVE%20ATST

Don’t know whether the charts are all dividends reinvested but there’s not a lot of difference in yield, certainly less that the 15% dividends received that ATST are allowed keep rather than forced to distribute.

Like I say, in terms of assets they hold, not that dissimilar. KIIDs says 12bp for VEVE vs 90bp for ATST (there are there abouts). Doesn’t make sense unless KIIDs is garbage when it comes to comparing ETFs and OEICs to ITs or that ATST don’t buy everything in the index… a bit like me vs FTSE100; I can consistently outperform it because 40 to 50 of the constituents I wouldn’t touch and half the rest I’m indifferent at best. Avoid the dogs, underweight heavyweights you’re not convinced and top up with the stuff you like.

Maybe a bit of both but KIIDs is garbage unless comparing like with like IMO

Anyway, just started a spreadsheet with both, price I paid for the VEVE vs the ATST offer price at the time. Spreadsheet will assume £100k in both and I’ll update by ‘reinvesting’ all dividends received. With or without costs? Dealing cost is fixed but no stamp duty on VEVE. Open to suggestion or maybe just do it both to see how much difference it makes? I’ll try to note the discounts/premiums to see if that explains anything but acid test is always, money in, money out. We shall see… although it may take a while for any difference to be significant.

Regards,
ITDYA


#3925

I would call it holding her own

She’s not taking the usual pounding IMHO

Every man and his dog is waiting to dip their toe in the water for Jack’s 55p top up :wink:


#3926

Hi @ITDYA, Well thats a bold move on your part putting £100K of new money into the market at this point in time. Personally I would have invested in a more diverse range of things or at least dribbled the money in in increments a la “pound cost averaging”. But each to their own, I hope it works out for you. Certainly VEVE holds a lot of excellent companies and is pretty diversified just on its own as it has in excess of 2,000 holdings just on its own I see.

As for KIIDs, there has been much discussion of these as I am sure that you are aware. The general concensus is that they cannot be relied upon and that you are better off looking on the fund factsheet for the Ongoing Charge Figure OCF and using that to compare charges. Thats my understanding anyway FWIW.

Regarding your comparison of VEVE and ATST I reproduced the comparison on the Hargreaves Lansdown web site, results as follows:-

Total Return Comparison (Dividends Re-Invested)

Price Only Comparison

Comparing these charts with yours it is pretty clear that whatever tool you used did not do a total return comparison only a price comparison. ~6% difference in the final figure (36% gain TR vs 30% price) so re-investing the dividends has been worth about 2% per year, which ties up with the quoted dividend of 1.88% for VEVE.

Again I wish you the best of luck with your investment !.

ATB

Pref


#3927

Just adding to Pref’s reply…

ATST isn’t following any index; it can invest in almost anything it chooses as an actively managed fund.
VEVE simply tracks the FTSE Developed World Index.
I’ve had a quick look and there’s a lot of difference in the proportions invested in different countries and also even in the Top 10 holdings (not that any one holding has a large %).

The performance of ATST is better than VEVE if you look over long periods like 5 years (including costs and divis reinvested) but it has a marginally worse divi yield.
There’s not a lot to choose between these two IMHO… assuming you want a fund that invests in global assets rather than picking your own.

Also, there’s an IT I’m aware of that has outperformed both the above if you are only interested in performance and not divi: Monks IT.
(Personally, I perefer STS IT as it has a reasonable divi whilst still being a good performer.)


#3928

Hi Regardless,

Can’t be many men or dogs around who’d consider me daft or reckless enough to add more here at 55p after adding recently at 56.78. Frankly, I’m not sure why you’d want to buy more at 55p after adding again recently?

In brief: I’m content with the size of my stake, though naturally less so the performance. Even though I anticipate a longer-term hold before booking the next gains, as previously, I’m also on the DRIP schedule to gradually increase my stake here in the event of a very L/T hold, ie. if well after 2020. Even if I did add again (by no means 100% certain), I’d only consider it at circa 52 or lower if seen. - Regards.


#3929

Hi Again @In_the_dark_yet_again, Regarding the relative costs of ATST and VEVE I did a bit of digging.

ATST is an IT and the AIC and the trusts factsheet say that the OCF is 0.65%.

Looking at the charges for VEVE, the Vanguard OCF figure given is 0.14% and this figure appeared to correspond to the example 5 year figure given on the AJ Bell website. The Hargreaves Lansdown figure is also 0.14% once you exclude the HL Charges which are really the costs of having an ISA with them.

So the cost comparison looks to me to be VEVE ETF 0.14%, ATST IT 0.69%.

Could be wrong as always but that’s how it looks to me.

ATB

Pref


#3930

@PrefInvestor1 For when you next decide to get back into Asia (or Korea, Japan or China)… I updated some of my tabs with some new data…as ever… ordered by Total Return… see below.

Personally, I don’t care too much whether they are ETFs, ITs or open-ended Funds as the total returns take into account all the costs to my knowledge.
However, usually it’s an IT or ETF that has both a top performer (usually with not much yield) as well as a good performer with a reasonable yield for that sector.

Asia
image

Japan
image

Korea
image

China
image

I have my own theory for each sector above and a price range (low and a high) for at least one fund in each of the above where I’m buying and selling at. That has been working well thus far for me.


#3931

Hi @J_Westlock, Thanks for that. Not sure it’s the right time to be buying back in yet, we may yet see worse things happen as a result of the virus. I have already bought back into HFEL as I could do so at a lower price than I sold at, not true for my other Asian/EM holdings JEMI, AAIF, IAPD & SEDY. Not planning on buying back into AAIF or JEMI at all right now as yields are too low for my liking. Would buy IAPD and/or SEDY. Still also thinking about buying NWBD and SAN or SANB on 3/5.

HSBA results on 18/2 I think which should be interesting. Also RAVP goes XD on 13/2 which you said previously that you might be interested in - but please do bear in mind the risks and issues that I mentioned previously. While I am holding I can offer no guarantees, completely up you to decide obviously. Beware if you do decide to proceed as I have seen the RAVP stock price do strange things on XD day eg sometimes only the offer price drops - in theory meaning you could sell for more than you bought. Sometimes neither price drops but then they adjust in the next day or so. No idea why this happens, not seen it with ANY other stock, but if the price hasn’t dropped by about 3p then don’t buy or this effect could catch you out.

I am decorating ATM :disappointed: so not reading these boards much. Putting up coving (done that bit now) and just have the painting left to do (just !). Also noticed as I was putting the car away yesterday that the windscreen is cracked (must have had a stone hit sometime but don’t remember it) so got to get that sorted too. All part of life’s rich tapestry I suppose…

ATB

Pref


#3932

Take a look maybe at JAI potentially as a IAPD replacement: still a good yield and much better performance.

I think you mention there was to be a RAV announcement by end of Jan? I never noticed anything so I dropped considering RAV but have limit orders in place for a couple of pref shares.


#3933

Hi Again @J_Westlock, Yes I see your point re JAI vs IAPD. Will think on that.

Re Raven Property Group yes that’s what they said in their RNS dated 12-Dec which outlined their plan to buy out the Invesco holding, but here we are in February and it hasn’t happened yet…

Well painted the ceiling and the coving today. Walls tomorrow…oh joy.

ATB

Pref


#3934

Anyone know if I can top up tomorrow at 55p

Super Jack’s price


#3935

Morning regardless.Hope you had a pleasant week end.

No one can really know if 55 will be seen today, only make reasoned guesses/idea.
I would consider the chance of 55 today to be on the low probability side.

GL

soi


#3936

Will this ever go back to 70P? Performance really has been disappointing over the last 5+ years. I guess all Banks SP performance has also struggled.

Does anyone think that IF a satisfactory Trade Deal is agreed with EU by year end there will be a significant SP increase? Clutching at straws!


#3937

Doubt it. This is a pure play on the UK mortgage market nowadays but can’t see it collapsing.
Supply and demand… but being based on that market then you are in the hands of GBP confidence, BoE interest rates and UK GDP.

There is zero chance on a full deal with EU being agreed/signed by end of this year; negotiations still haven’t even commenced yet.
When a Trade Deal or parts of trade deals (if they split it up somehow) are announced then each time there will be a SP hike but suspect it will be a max of 5p and for a short duration once the trade deal details are picked apart and analyzed/realised what they mean.
The Brexit impact to the economy isn’t going to be positive other than for short term news spikes IMHO… same as it’s been for many months now. Good for day traders/those who are predicting events and OK if you bought a low price.


#3938

When you use that vacous word " ever " you guarantee yourself against being wrong, no time frame.

There will not be a satisfactory trade deal by the end of this year.
Increase the time frame 10 fold.

LLOY sp at 70p?

Dream world in the near term, 35 % above current value

soi


#3939

Crikey there is me waiting for 80p plus :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

oh well I may as well then, just pick up the Quarterly Dividends stating in 2020


#3940

Yep… you might even make a profit as it edges closer to 50p.


#3941

@J_Westlock

When Lloyds Quarterly Dividend start flowing, I be taking my profits in the 70s :wink:

When investing direct on the stock market be prepared to wait 10 to 20 years to see your pot of gold

Good Dividend Payers, will pay you for your Patience