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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#1057

That’s it Spreadsheet

Top Marks to you

I am Frequent trader :slight_smile: charge was £ 7.95

Fingers crossed Lloyds increases the Interim Dividend tomorrow… I need my wages in September


#1058

Hi @macbonzo,

Thanks for asking. I’m fine. Apologies for delayed response, but with so many threads & new posts on ii, one can barely catch every comment on the same day. Also been a bit busy on other sites. Not least, these days most of my spare time is spent focused on trading & germane screens.

Re your question: a few reasons. Long-term historical trends seems a big one. Also supply & demand. We still don’t build enough homes. In context, former PM Harold Macmillan oversaw over 300K new homes a year during his time when UK’s population was much smaller, migration minimal.

Even cultural factors are significant. Unlike across much of Europe, home ownership in UK is still seen as a priority for many aspiring citizens. This seems imbedded deep in the national psyche. Thus, many Britons will even consider life-time mortgages to get their dream home.

So whilst one is mindful of stormy times ahead for UK PLC, I think it would take a seismic shift in a number of macro-factors for UK house prices to not only plummet, but then stay low permanently. Of course I could also be wrong. But for now I’m content to continue holding LLOY. - Regards.


#1059

Its all relative. The whole British sector is full of munters as :

  1. interest rates stay low
  2. the courts continue to curb their earnings potential
  3. they pay off past misdemeanours such as PPI
    4 divest themselves of their investment arms (where the BIG profits were made from the 80s onwards)
  4. and as we head into a likely recession which will restrict retail borrowing (credit cards and mortgages) plus continued uncertainty over Brexit which dampens business investment making loan books for the UK market look pretty sad.
  5. Online banking allows customers to do things for free that the banks used to charge for.
  6. Traditional money makers like share broking have been dropped along with the branches or customers have moved to online broking.
  7. Online payments systems cutting middle-man banks out of an increasing number of business tranactions.

Some banks still do some of the above, and HSBC is the only bank that really stands out as a global competitor any more but its price is perhaps depressed by the sector as a whole.

Lots of talk of Fintech being used to cut hundreds of thousands of jobs - but UK banks have a very bad record of expensive I.T. implementation failures and some boards are definitely running scared of change.

Meanwhile customer service gets worse - as anyone who still uses branches will tell you or who gets continually locked out of Natwest (RBS) online accounts as they force you to give them more ‘security data’ to regain access (obviously harvesting that data, no doubt for sale to a third partty).

Pressure builds to reduce costs (sale of more branches and redundancies and worse service) and challenger banks make for more competition (although service is no better in my experience).

Don’t be surprised if PPI has a larger than expected sting in the tail as the deadline approaches and following that the B. of E. or FCA may decide it is time to investigate some other part of banking mal-practice. Since the credit crunch they’ve tended to let them out one at a time in order that the banks didn’t get overwhelmed with claims regarding such things as due diligence failures, de-frauding small businesses into going broke (Lloyds Reading), over-charging for services, especially fx and a great number of things going back to the investment bank madness prior to 2008.

A lot of negatives there - I can’t think of any advantages. As a long-suffering holder in BARC I’d list them if I could think of any. Please do pitch in if you think you have some.


#1060

Lloyds expected to announce they are buying Tesco’s mortgage book tomorrow. SP will be a £1 by the end of the week :wink:


#1061

If Carlsberg done shares hey :wink:


#1062

Quick rule of thumb for @regardless, but everyone in general.

If you are paying UK stamp duty (none on GLEN in my earlier diversified list, btw, @PrefInvestor1 ), and £10 per trade (I know this is an investment for you @regardless and you paid a bit less) then your tranches really need to be a minimum of £2000 which means 1% costs on buying and another 0.5% on selling.

Higher figures lower these percentages. Spread isn’t generally worth considering in FTSE 100 companies.

Anything below that £2k minimum the brokers percentage adds up quickly. I have a very small SIPP, so I know about trying to maximise these smaller trades and when aiming to make 5% I actually have to see the price rise 6.5% from my buy price to achieve that because of the costs. Its a significant difference.

Happily frequent trader rates in ii now 3.99 so easier to make 5%. Why fixated on 5%? Well, that’s about what you would reckon a good dividend payout in the FTSE 100 for a year.

If you divide E.g. a small SIPP into 25 tranches of £2k and you can successfully invest each of them 3 times to make 5% over a year (including accounting for any that went wrong), then you’ll have a 15% return. Do that 5 years in a row and you’ve doubled your SIPP value. This is the difference between relying on dividends (and possible capital destruction) and trading (and some other possible form of horrible destruction if you allow any losses to run away from you, for example).


#1063

I dunno about the price prediction, but some positive moves from management are good to see. Let’s hope they examine the loan book carefully before paying for it - unlike the sub-prime junk so many banks are still attempting to recover from buying.


#1064

I plan to dump the lot in one go … never going to sell any be below 68p

Happy to take my Lloyds shares to the grave, its was my dream no-one else’s

I will request my Lloyds Share Certificates get burnt the day I am laid to rest


#1065

I’m praying you don’t not only have your life savings all in LLOY but also have them on paper certificates!

If you do, do those who inherit from you a favour and get them online. I’m selling paper shares from a will and being charged between 1%-1.5% of the value by registrars. One stock worth £600 quid in total, minimum charge £60. I mean, sheesh!


#1066

I don’t hold any shares in Paper Certificates Eadwig … all on-line, I am just trying to Picture the scene :slight_smile:

BTW my Mrs Regardless, does holds a few Lloyds share certificates as she an ex- Lloyds Girl

Good news is she does not do shares and has loads of cash savings earning little interest and is happy for me to gamble my savings for a better return in Dividends short Term :wink:


#1067

That reminds me. My Dad died a couple of years ago and he had the original free TSB shares (now Lloyds shares) - how many did you get free? Was it 300? It’ll almost be at a point that I’d have to pay the registrar more than the amount is worth!


#1068

I’m in the same situation exactly, except my Dad also took part in the LLOY rights issue and then SCRIP divis too. I have about 6700 shares in a wad of about 50 certificates but the registrar reckons we have about 12000, under 2 different share holder numbers - so we’ve come to an impasse there. (I’m not the executor, I might add, but the people who are have made a real mess of handling this stuff).

Some registrars only will accept 20 certificates when selling I found out yesterday, so you first have to go through a process of consolidation.

One thing that might be useful for you to know though is that the original TSB certificates still count as LLOY certificates on a one to one basis. (So don’t throw 'em away).


#1069

It flew again today.
Down near 2 % at close.

That bodes well for tomorrow. LOL
Which will be a day of nothing really, just extra volatility and likely little change overall.

soi


#1070

Hi,

Great to hear from you. Hope trading is going well. I don’t disagree with anything you said (and I realise the irony of me, of all people calling a market top), however, after a 1200% rise over 40 years, you, have to admit a 30% fall is nothing.

Looking at the multiples of average earnings required to buy properties in many areas, the younger generation is vulnerable. How many people can really afford the value of their house to fall 30% before the wealth effect kicks in? The residential property market in Southern Ireland resembles a Ponzi scheme


#1071

Is that everywhere south of Kilkenny?


#1072

Hi @macbonzo,

Thanks. On key levels, trading going better than I could have expected. All trades posted live (no hindsight calls).

Re your further points: I agree that this scenario of a circa 30% correction is possible. Such a level of negative equity would be serious & its effects lasting.

But it’s also dependant on a few variables that are hard to predict. For eg. future health of UK’s wider economy, wage growth, job creation, quantity of affordable new homes, et al. Or if in worst-case scenario a recession is seen in UK, how long it lasts for. Who knows? You could talk to a few top economists about such variables & get different projections from almost each one.

As you’ll appreciate, we also see a lot of financial investment in real estate for BTL. Or simply the parking of large amounts of cash in multiple-home ownership as a security against low rates, whilst avoiding greater risks of highly volatile stock markets & bonds.

Such activity has only added to house price inflation in UK & elsewhere. I don’t see those investments leaving UK anytime soon.

FWIW, I personally would like to see a significant correction in house prices bringing them within reach of more citizens on average salaries. That may come about for a few reasons. For eg. new technology like 3D printing may greatly reduce building costs. However, the bigger cost burden remains the price of the land that homes are built on &, short of seeing new legislation, that’s unlikely to change greatly anytime soon.

I think house prices in areas like London are probably not far off what you say about Southern Ireland. That is, something akin to a Ponzi scheme. But despite the risks posed by Brexit, I think UK may be able to sustain more house-price stability for longer than some nations with generally weaker economies. - Regards. Edit: typo.


#1073

No. Entire Tattie Republic


#1074

Wow that’s 75 wins to make 5% on the total, and if say 10% of your trades go wrong and lose 5% that figure would actually need 90 wins (2 extra for each loser ?) in total to make up for the losers. Quite a challenging target I would think !.

Was going to make my Brookfield buy yesterday but was put off by the price increasing and the fall in the GBP from the previous day. Figured I’d wait till after the Fed decision today, which just might do something for the GBP but of course it might also raise the share price still further…

LLOY results only 20 minutes away now. Will this be regardless’s Vodafone recovery moment…?

ATB

Pref


#1075

I was thinking the same but then maybe there are lots of great traders around with smallish SIPPs.
For those who aren’t and adopt the more usual monkey with a pin strategy then they may do well… especially in a long bull market… do the same in a bear market and rather than “Do that 5 years in a row and you’ve doubled your SIPP value.”… you could be looking at working a lot longer than you anticipated.


#1076

Well the results are out and profit seems to have beaten analyst expectations at £2.1Bn vs £1.9 Bn expected. NIM and interim dividend increase as predicted by some. But if you look at the comparison table in the results HY19 looks to me to have been worse than HY18 in many respects ?.

I never know how a company’s results are going to be taken by the market so will be watching at 08:00 to see what happens.

ATB

Pref