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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#1077

You see that is a basic amateur move too, @regardless. With such a large holding you should dump in perhaps 4 tranches when you do. You can’t time the top and you can’t time the bottom, that’s why we buy in tranches and that’s why you should sell in tranches also.

Dump 400,000 shares @68p and then find it moves to @72p within the next week and you’re going to feel pretty sick.


#1078

More than that go wrong but I target companies that I know and that i don’t mind holding in if I have to, usually backed by a large dividend. I generally have a long term base that I am holding with the trades on top.

Having said that, the majority that ‘go wrong’ more usually don’t make or lose 5% in too long a period for the strategy. This means the money involved can’t be turned over. I give those usually 3 months and then withdraw and aim the money elsewhere.

I probably am averaging around 90 trades every 3-4 months I would estimate at my current rate - and that is with my portfolio 33% in cash at the moment. I particularly like to target companies like GLEN which are volatile due to commodity prices, have a high yield and no stamp duty making the target easier to hit after costs (a total of £8 or less than 0.5% so the actual price rise needs to be only 5.5% in the example, but much less with larger tranches in my trading account as shown below).

Also as @J_Westlock says,

… the strategy is to be avoided, or at least cut back, in a bear market as companies moving in a predictable trading range volatile enough to make 5% within days or a month are much more difficult to find. Limit orders to buy and sell intraday are essential.

When I get time, which wont be for at least a week, I’ll enlarge on the strategy which as outlined above is only theoretical. In practice I also have long term investments gaining more than 15% over a year and certain ‘momentum plays’ where the target is 30%+ within 3 months and which I’ve also had some success with. They quickly make up for a few failures.

When I post it it will be in another thread, LLOY is certainly not one of those companies where I would currently be attempting to make multiple trades per year to take 5%+ several times over a year.


#1079

Topped up

1,874

at 52.620p


#1080

Yes sorry @regardless, it seems that your time has not yet come. Trading results is as I said “Russian Roulette” and this time it hasnt worked out for you, at least you will get another go !.

ATB

Pref


#1081

You can always top up when things haven’t worked out… another opportunity is created… ‘til the day you run out of life savings anyway.


#1082

Maybe next year hey

Bit like been a Southend United FC fan …

Its always maybe next year we win Promotion

hahahahaha


#1083

Hi @regardless, Still buying in £1,000 lots I see…

Can’t help but think with your much higher average (?) that your top up strategy is a bit like putting pebbles on one end of a seesaw with an elephant sat on the other end !.

ATB

Pref


#1084

PREF

When I decide to sell the small pebbles will weigh like little rocks :slight_smile:


#1085

Topped up.
Not bad advise from others about costs , I think small top ups here sensible .
Why not pay under £2 ?
Your customer service might be worth it , i do not know ?


#1086

Thanks for the comments regards capital destruction - I though you were referring to capital of Lloyd’s in the sense on tangible assets, not on the shareholder - I’ve lost quite a bit :frowning:


#1087

Well I topped the daughters LISA up today, only got her in at 53.5 as I was busy all day. Should have banked her 52.5 but I’m content nonetheless.

As for my personal isa, I forgot all about it.


#1088

Hi @Eadwig, Well it’s been an eventful day on the markets today and no mistake, my portfolio gave back most of the big gains of the big FTSE rise the other day. Good time for traders I guess, they would have sold to collect their gains !.

I have put my planned Brookfield REIT purchase on hold for now. I held back till today expecting the GBP to rise against the USD with the Fed cutting rates, and indeed it did spike up to 1.225 for a while but has fallen back to 1.2159 again right now. And US stocks tanked after the Fed press conference when Powell didn’t promise any more rate cuts, Brookfield dropped ~0.6% as a result of that.

Really not sure how things are going to play out from here. Still potential for the GBP to bounce back I think and that’s what I’d really like to see before I do my Brookfield purchase. But I’m going to watch and wait for a while I think.

ATB

Pref


#1089

Pref, about 8pm UK time so 3pm in the US, S&P500 tanked, I’ve been out most of day so missed all news so far. Do you know if that was just Powells comments?


#1090

Hi @swamp_rat, Well yes it was what he said at the press conference plus 2 of the Fed committee members voted against the 1/4 pt rate cut (and some market participants had been hoping for 1/2 pt). See report here:-

Usual US market petulance though isn’t it ?, economy is good, jobs are good, trade not really a problem for them - don’t see the market collapsing as a result of this myself. But we will see.

£ down again and FTSE and STOXX 50 down 0.45-0.55% according to IG ATM.

ATB

Pref


#1091

Wow, massive drop on nothing unexpected then. 0.25% cut was almost stated earlier this month.


#1092

Just the US markets way of telling Powell and the Fed that they want (expect ?) more cuts in future.

ATB

Pref


#1093

Well another cut has been stated most likely this year I believe.
Are there signs of a slowdown creeping in. See if other banks fair any better with impairments later. Tread carefully.


#1094

Its terribly difficult I agree. Still potential for the GBP to fall a lot too - some commentators even say to parity with the USD (5 cents below its mid 80s lowest ever) and parity with the Euro looks nailed on. The latter kills me with my expenses in Poland as the zloty pretty much tracks the Euro unless the Polish government does something wacky.

They are a populist government, anti immigration with some socialist beliefs and very much tied to the church too - so I’m looking for them to save me. With the Polish economy racing along at c.5% GDP growth p.a. I’m not too optimistic.

Personally I doubt we’ll ever see GBP at pre-referendum levels again, not for a generation at least, even if we were to somehow Remain. The damage done is already literally incalculable and the UK has fallen behind in many, many areas as other countries have forged ahead in an ever-faster moving world of commerce.

Despite my previously described strategy to sell out to realise profits from growth every year, I’ve also kept a notional running total (not counting dividends except in my SIPP) for over 10 years now and I finished today (U.S. close) at my highest ever value.

If today were the end of the tax year and that was my ending total I would have averaged 17.96% return per year. that includes my worst ever year (approx 15% down), one other losing year and one year that was break-even (actually around +1%). That other big losing year was the big crash surrounding the credit crunch, but I was back in profit the next year.

I’ve been told that was a quicker recovery than many professionals - although my losses were probably much smaller initially as I had realised very large profits from housing (because of my taking-profits-as-you-go strategy) before they all crashed too badly - although I did lose a lot of profit in some (800% in one unfortunate case where my holding was on paper, I was living abroad and my paper certificate broker had stopped dealing unbeknown to me). I was in America so saw what was coming earlier than many, and had to fly home and set-up a new broker to sell out of certain stocks causing a delay of some weeks, which proved to be very expensive.

Losing profits always seems more painful than a normal loss. Possibly because it can be more than 100%! You can bet I have all my stocks online now (actually i still have two on paper - must do something about that!)

Unfortunately my two prolonged recent absences from the markets due to personal reasons resulted in the biggest loss above, at least in great part, just last year, so no salary for me for 2018/19. I made it all back a couple of weeks ago so hopefully I’m back on target for earnings to be taken again next April. A lot can happen before then of course! It doesn’t count for anything until the finishing line is crossed in April 2020 - except to encourage me a bit.

17.96% a year to live on from a static lump sum (now rising each year by inflation taken from profit, a recent innovation) is pretty good going I think, because I reckon I can live comfortably on 12%. At least that was my original calculation. With the GBP where it now is 12% doesn’t cut it anymore and I think probably 15-18% is more like it for the future.

That’s not just because of the GBP but also inflation is going to be much higher than it has been - I am all too aware that most of the years these figures cover have been bull market years (extraordinary bull markets at that) and unless I master spread betting and shorting the years ahead are looking potentially lean indeed.

The silver lining is that as my inheritance comes in I will up the base lump sum figure I’m working from, possibly ultimately adding perhaps 75%-100% to it, so my percentage take will go further. But inflation is already eating into those profits, and looks set to continue as the GBP devalues more and buys less abroad where most of my expenses now are (-19% since the day before the referendum).

Some tough times ahead. I’m almost entirely reliant on what I make in the markets now and still 12 years away from my state pension - if such a thing still exists by then which I have severe doubts about, but at least have never banked on it.

If Brexit forces me to become resident in Poland I’ll also get taxed on any income after their personal allowance of about £350 p.a, so a double-whammy potentially there.

Still, all I can do is focus on the immediate future and things I can control. At least with 25+ years experience behind me I make fewer mistakes with my investments than I used to.

ATB, Eadwig


#1095

The futures funds rate pretty well factored 0.25 cut. Sterling hardly budged.


#1096

I agree with MacB and add that it’s how you interpret the brexit outcome Pref. If a deal, pound will strengthen. But that’ll be midnight plus 1minute on 31st October if you think it’ll happen at all.