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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#1257

Hi @J_Westlock, Well yes I guess back when I was working I might have stuck £20,000+ into investments in a year, not any more though !. Of course if you have a a spouse/partner then you can each put away £20,000 a year.

ATB

Pref


#1258

Hi @Eadwig, Sorry but I still really don’t have a clue how your approach manages to be profitable I’m afraid. I realise that you have some growth stocks like Facebook that you have held for a long time and are up by large amounts. But given your policy of restarting your finances each year and the fact that pretty will everything is down quite a bit after these last few days (eg Facebook was down almost 10% I think) then I’m guessing that like myself your portfolio must be down at least 3% maybe more, but likely still up for the year (guessing you use the FY, I use the calendar year – not paying any tax the FY has no significance for me). And yes you’ve got 33% in cash and you can now invest that in some bargains. But surely given your approach you’ve now got to find N new 5% winning trades to make up for this recent loss – it was challenging before and even more challenging now ?.

And what are these investments that are making you 15% a year every year ?. I’d like some of those and would happily forget anything else !.

Hey, I’m really glad that you are successful, and you certainly know what you are doing. But do I understand it ?. Sorry answer is No.

ATB

Pref


#1259

Yes agreed. In my case, when I eventually did get to a point where I could save/invest a decent amount away rather than immediately spend it/pay off debt… and when I realised what was possible with DIY investing… I maxed everything I could. As you say, works whilst you’re earning, which for me is becoming more intermittent.


#1260

Yes it does, thanks.
For those UK investors using accounts that aren’t ISAs or SIPPs (for whatever reason)… I wonder now why we aren’t all using US Brokers as @macbonzo indicated.
I use SAXO currently but the US brokers on the face of it appear cheaper and gave more protection… will need to check out their ongoing charges though and market access.


#1261

Well, I don’t think I can explain it any more. Some people just don’t get that realising profits adds up - and usually 5% is a minimum. That’s just on trades.

I work between tax years by the way - I’m well up currently despite around 3% loss over the last 3 days as you correctly guessed. More than that offset by fx movements, frankly, since April.

Its unfortunate that we have to keep coming back to FB. Depending on how you value the book costs (I.e. at current fx rates or rates when bought) I average between @$22 and @$26 (the actual amount I paid when GBP was worth much more - ii keep changing this which makes it confusing).

I specifically said that I DO NOT reset values each year. So 709% showing on FB right now in my account is since I built the position in 2013. However, for argument’s sake lets say I bought 1000 shares in 4 tranches originally. Of those bought then I’ve taken profits at various stages and currently have about 150 only left. Those 150 are 709% up, not the 1000.

I have sold the 1000 in tranches at , lets say for argument’s sake, 100% 200%, 400%, 600% at various times as the price has risen.

I have also TRADED FB, for 5%-15% on pullbacks, but that doesn’t affect the original long-term holding from 2013. Those trades are just gravy. I don’t know if this is what has confused you.

As for this year, I don’t know if they are up or down and don’t much care until we get to next April (as I am happy to continue holding them come what may at the moment).

When I work out my profits (or losses) for the year I’m not looking at percentages on holdings since I bought them, or indeed any specific holding. I’m just looking at the simple sum of OVERALL TOTAL Apr 5th 2019 - STARTING TOTAL Apr 6th 2020 = 2019/20 profit or loss. Surely that isn’t hard to grasp?
EDIT: Actually I have made this confusing - see below for better equation)

Well you don’t like funds so I’m not sure what to tell you. Rathbone Global has done me very proud >100% up since I entered about 5 or max 6 years ago. Can’t be more precise as to when I entered because of the changes to ii and I’m not going to go digging through paperwork.

I’m afraid you’ll likely find it full of the companies that you wish to avoid though - how else would it accumulate approx 15% p.a.?


#1262

@PrefInvestor1, actually this is hard to grasp the way I put it. Let me put it more simply.

(STARTING TOTAL VALUE Apr 6th 2019) - (OVERALL TOTAL VALUE Apr 5th 2020) = P/L for 2019/20

That’s easier to understand, especially if you forget about any inflation calculations which I now do and just assume that the STARTING TOTAL on the first day of the tax year is the same EVERY year.

In other words - any mention of FB being up 709% or whatever is a red herring which I think might have been misleading you.

Also - Just checked Rathbone Global Opportunities Unit Trust
5 year annualised return 17.5%
10 year annualised returns 15.32%

On my books at +111% this morning and I think I’m right in saying I bought in July/Aug 2013 when I first opened my SIPP. So that is over 6 years.


#1263

Hi @Eadwig, Yes we will just have to give up discussing your investing methodology I think. You have tried valiantly to explain it to me, but with little success Im afraid !!. Its not as if Im going to totally change what I’m doing anyway is it !. Pleased it is being successful for you anyway.

I had a look at Rathbone Global, but you know how I feel about funds - though I did give an idle thought to putting some money into Fundsmith & Lindsell Train Global Equity the other week, so maybe Im weakening ?. If Im going to do that kind of an investment I would much prefer to use an Investment Trust (OEICs and UTs I have to pay 0.45% pa just to hold them… quite apart from my aversion to them as being full of opaque charges). Anyway did a quick comparison with the likes of SMT, PCT & JUSC all of which I have invested in previously (but didnt enjoy their volatility or lack of dividends), see below:-

Thank goodness posting images is working again !!.

All look to have done a bit better than Rathbone, but all very good its true. No disputing that.

Anyway Im pretty well full invested right now and have no plans to do anything much except sit back and watch the dividends roll in…

Hope you are enjoying being back in Poland with your family. Had an adhoc visit from my daughter and granddaughter this morning which has kept me occupied for the last couple of hours. They only live 400 steps away so we see them often, which is nice.

Anyway ATB

Pref


#1264

I’m not sure if any of those have outperformed the market by comparing to some passive ETFs. They appear to do well when the market does… and not otherwise… 2018 performance shows that.
Not that I’m knocking holding some IT’s or Unit Trusts if they target particular sectors you want to be exposed to.


#1265

Hi @J_Westlock, Well I did a quick 5 year comparison of SMT against ZWUK, IDVY & the FTSE 100.

Wasnt surprised to see that SMT won by a street. ZWUK & IDVY results arent on a total return basis though and over 5 years that might make a 25% difference…

I suppose I ought to be convinced by the apparent historical evidence of this comparison !, but I’m not…

ATB

Pref


#1266

Well @PrefInvestor1… as I’m sure you well know… you can generate some pretty misleading information by moving around the start point when doing % comparisons. There has to be a start point of course just as there have to be points when you buy and sell.

If you start from 2018 (which wasn’t a great year) then you’ll see that SMT far from winning by a street is distinctly unimpressive. I say this as a holder of SMT too.

As a single shot defensive fund that gives you good exposure to US (1/2 the fund), Europe (1/4) and Asia (1/4)… it’s pretty good for a 0.37% ongoing charge but I have been beating that easily year on year for several years with a selection of ETFs and stocks.

The below shows SMT as worst performer out of VAPX, XESC and VWRD ETFs.


#1267

Read Soi’s post. I agree, completely. Interactive Brokers are self clearing and have an excellent credit rating.

Feeling that your money is safe is a basic right for client. Much safer than banks


#1268

Well it is flying down by more than the ex D amount, as per usual.

soi


#1269

I particularly picked Rathbone because it is more diversified than other funds and thought it might interest you. 15% return over 10 years spread across many sectors and around the world isn’t bad going, although hard not to make money in the markets over that time. Its really all about how well funds do in the down times, and we haven’t had many of those to compare.

I have many other funds including SMT (investment trust) as you know. Biotech funds are strange beasts. they can easily return 60% in a year on occasion, but can lose very quickly also, especially in US election years (when isn’t it?). Biotech funds are about the only one that I do sell out of and take profit then buy back again later, despite costs of doing that.

Personally I’ve been looking for a fund for ages that boldly states it will be shorting on its holder’s behalf if and when we enter a bear market. Funds do it, but not many like to be clear about it. The one or two I thought I had identified didn’t do well through the more recent obvious dips E.g last December (when i was out of the market and missed many opportunities) and early 2016 when oil hit its lows.

Anyone reading got any recommendations I’m happy to take them on board. I’d rather hand over the shorting aspect of my strategy to professionals and pay them a fee than rely on the ETFs I use that require a large cash commitment and are limited to mainly commodities and indices.

P.S. I’m not sure if I mentioned it, but I have almost completely pulled out of REITs after several disappointments. I managed to exit LXi with 5 years dividends in hand in terms of profit taken and did similar with others such as BBOX although not so lucrative. One left PRSR (build-to-rent) which I bought quite high because of the spread and then it dropped so will take about 2 years of divis just to cover the capital loss.

Very unsatisfactory vehicles on the whole. Management can’t seem to leave them alone and just be happy they are doing their job returning investors 5%+ so they come up with schemes to enlarge the fund and they often tend to go wrong with the result that divis are less and/or you have to keep buying in additional IPOs or get diluted.


#1270

BHi @Eadwig, Well I do thank you for thinking of me and sending me the info on Rathbone Global Opportunities, I have put it on a Funds watchlist along with the other two I mentioned. But I think if Im ever going to invest in these Id likely have to take a chunk of money and put it in a new broker where I wouldnt have to pay such an overhead to invest in Funds. But as I am fully invested right now I dont see me doing that anytime soon, I could add new money of course - I will think on that. Have to be next tax year when I could open a new ISA.

Yes I too am not a major fan of REITS ATM the commercial property market being depressed and will likely get worse with brexit. I have had a flutter on NRR tempted by the yield but its not been going well, I bought at 177, closed at 159.4 today so its just a smidge under my “10% loss and its gone” limit. And of course I bought Brookfield Property REIT the other day the mega US REIT. Timing of my buy was unfortunate just before Trump blew the market out of the water, but it is ALMOST back to my 19.35 entry point at this instant, its 19.33 ATM. Its all part of my hedge against the GBP falling too much against the USD / other currencies - I reckon I now have 40% of my investments which are foreign currency correlated.

FTSE bounce back these last 2 days have been good, I have made up about 1/3 of my losses and the FTSE is still WAY down from where it was - so that potentially bodes well. Got 4 digits worth of dividends due in the next couple of weeks so hopefully I will get to invest those at good prices.

ATB

Pref


#1271

As Macbonzo predicted , 107.8 £/Euro level to be broken very soon.

Plus the first dip in growth for 7 years and recession on the way.

All avoidable self harm caused by mug leave voters.

IMHO,

SBK


#1272

True, but also compounded by The Groper’s trade war antics. When the recession comes the EU will be hit as well so wait for our europhobe friends to start on “the EU is doomed” stuff. Just like Gordon Brown discovered, you can’t abolish the cycle of boom and bust but as Brexit is showing you can volunteer to go bust.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#1273

Frog,

I don’t think the impact of the execrable Groper’s antics have reached us yet - but they will.

The current UK downturn is mainly due to internal chariness at investment and decision - making owing to the confusion and uncertainty of the suicidal Brexit threat. Plus loss of trade with former EU based companies who are also deterred from entering into contracts with firms in the untrustworthy and unpredictable UK.

IMHO,

SBK


#1274

I think I will disagree. My portfolio was at an all time high on tuesday 30 July and then the Groper tweeted. Since then I am down over5%.

Frog


#1275

But were your shares inward or outward looking? And as we all know the stock market and the real economy are two different things.

Its the small business exporters who I feel most sorry for. Its a total nightmare for them.

IMHO,

SBK


#1276

It is a balanced portfolio of uk facing and international facing companies, along with some funds based on far east and emerging markets. Usually Brexit devaluation boosts my portfolio but over the last week both sterling and my share portfolio were down.

Frog