They do adhere and behave to such patterns. If you had bought every 10 or 20% correction (last being 28th Dec), you would have stuffed the market, consistently. Avoiding holding anything from May to Labour Day would have hugely enhanced your returns. Realising, the fall in Sterling 1.45 to 1.076 couldn’t have reach a 50 Fib retrace was a big heads up on how weak Sterling was. These patterns do repeat themselves, but, it requires huge amounts of hard work, plus, an ability to follow a process. BT fundamentals look good, but, who cares when the stock has fallen 71% from 499p to 158p?
You should read “The Geometry of the Stock Market”
Long term just means you are pissing in the wind with no stop loss or trade plan
You are giving more importance to TA than most who use it. Fundamental vs Technical is always 80% vs 20%.
Fundamentals tell you if you should buy or sell anything (not just a stock)
Technical tells you which price you should buy or sell.
Have you bought a property or house ?
Buying a property is a fundamentally good thing to do, everyone agrees on it.
But when you went out to buy a property, did you not check its previously bought price ? and what other houses in the same area are priced at ?
Would you pay 100% over its prviously sold price within 2 years ? Would you buy a house which has been on market for 10 months and havent sold ?
Thats exactly what happened in central London
People sold houses at near to 100% value within 2years of owning them.
Those who bought without considering that fact, have since lost 20% on their houses.
Point is your brain does technical analysis all the time.
If it structured it could help you by reducing risks.
To save soi some of his valuable time and brain power, I’ll answer for him this way:
soi is a very active trader in a range of instruments, often placing dozens of trades a day.
As I’m privvy to these on a daily basis (in real time) I can assure you that his LLOYDS trades have been very successful over a long period of time. Both of you would eat your hearts out to have such success.
But this is not a competition here. Both of you have now had the benefit of advice from four very experienced traders in the past few days and you choose to pour scorn on that.
The actual key to success or at least survival in the stock market is made up of hard work, experience, learning from mistakes, learning from winners and using all the tools which are available. That’s it.
I did indeed short it quite heavily at 57 and in fact higher previously at 66p, when it was overbought and again at 63.
I did lose on about 4 longs on the day prior to Results, closing out around 55p ( entries around the 56 p mark if I recall correctly} as I realised they would be lower on and after results day.
I did also short it heavily on results day, from about 53 downwards.
For clarity though, the majority of my positions I place very tight auto limit closes so even when I get the direction right I do not benefit from the full move.
I just want a slice, not the whole cake.