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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#1478

I assume many are thinking that the PPI issues are now at an end and drawing a line under it; they might be right. However, they’ve consistently underestimated the amounts thus far and the talk of “low quality” claims being rushed through in the last few days sounds rather desperate.

We will soon get to the next set of fraud complaints and payout provisions and be going through the process again… so better hope that they start making some decent profits.


#1479

Hi Fiat,

Indeed, LLOY up & BARC doing especially well. Latter went up over 8p. But volumes at close will also be significant as to indicators of its sustainability. IMO, more volatility seems likely due to ongoing uncertain macro-factors.

Some of the reasons for today’s lift you allude to. Solid UK wage growth with record levels of employment. For BARC with its global exposure, also more ECB stimulus may be announced later this week.

IMO, as well as those factors, both banks seemed oversold despite the naysayers on various threads. - Regards. Edit: added “this week”


#1480

Hitting 52p ATM. Perhaps 85p at the end of the week :wink: :rofl:


#1481

I tend to agree that LLOY is oversold but still expect the sp to be punctured if Johnson’s Brexit is a no deal or a pretty hard Brexit. I would then expect a recovery but this could be delayed if a recession follows Brexit. Meanwhile I believe that LLOY is a good company and will recover in the longer term.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#1482

Nose bleed time +4% (yes, I’m going to give a minute by minute commentary whilst it is going up then soi will take over on its decline :wink: )

It is one of the leanest banks, deffo oversold and in the long term (not specifying a time) it will recover (i hope!)


#1483

LLOY 5% here or there mimicing main markets

No one is buying LLOY for its own sake
Buy backs have stopped and Divis could go down as well

If you want to capitalise on SP movement, which is what we do, LLOY for a Private Investor is very risky at this point


#1484

Brexit more worrying than PPI

From the BBC website:

Barclays and Lloyds Banking Group both revealed on Monday that they face multi-million pound bills to handle a new wave of claims for payment protection insurance. Lloyds said it faced a bill of between £1.2bn and £1.8bn after “a significant spike” in claims in the run-up to the final deadline of 29 August. Barclays said it faced new costs of between £1.2bn and £1.6bn. It made its announcement after the stock market had closed so the bank’s shares have yet to react. Jane Sydenham, investment director, at Rathbone Investment Management told Radio 5 Live’s Wake Up to Money that the scale of the claims was incredible. “The markets were expecting more claims and they are more worried about the effects of Brexit,” she said.


#1485

Hi skiking

Glad you are back in profit.
You did indeed post the news of the provision over the weekend, noticed your post.
Ahead of the RNS. Well Done. Fast on the news.

Where to from now ?

ATB

soi


#1486

Who knows! From a 50p level I’d expect upwards. As I’ve stated, it is the leanest bank. I know it is re-platforming its IT infrastructure to the cloud so that should provide a more stable platform for customers and give them speed to market. It is also in bed with a fintech, which, if it comes off should save money.

Apart from Brexit (and we are in a new era of the bloody in/out) my biggest concern is what other PPI type skeletons are in the cupboard? If those two items prove to be OK and combined with its new cost savings plans (fintech and cloud infrastructure) then things should be on the up. The limitation is that it is now a fully domestic bank (could be wrong here) and that may limit the revenue generation prospects but it also reduces its risk. The buying of the Tesco mortgage could be good if cross selling is successful?

I’m long term, so happy to ride the storm. I have sold and bought back in to lower my average but and have suggested it on here back at 66p I should have bailed and bought back in sub 50p - I’d be a happy fella today if I’d done that. There will be some profit taking tomorrow and I expect a little rise on Friday. Would be happy if is closes out the week at 52p+


#1487

Yes indeed, maybe they could try selling some mortgage protection insurance ready for the coming Brexit enforced downturn?


#1488

My estimate is it rises further tomorrow. Not closed any longs.


#1489

LLOY continues to fly this morning. Up 1.78% to 53.25p even after yesterday’s hefty rise. I suspect a bit of a fall is due.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#1490

Dingbat
One BIG short squeeze no less …
Like the indication"Any excess will be returned to share holders".
T.G. /B.B. is over.
Tks for views …agree. Said positive words today.
Onwards & upwards. In or Out. What What.
Forgot…Listen to Andrea Linstrom…One smart lady
And HK /LSE combination in cross trading …Wow
Salutations


#1491

I think that the rise will not hold and LLOY will soon enough drop sub 53.

soi


#1492

Not sub 50p?

What does Regardless think?

Frog


#1493

Not in the short term.

As to what regardless thinks he said it would hit 80p soon, that about a year ago.
Also predicted 110 and 130.
As well as suggesting anyone selling at 66 was being mugged by MMs.

LOL

soi


#1494

When I do sell my Lloyds shares at 80p plus

Does this still mean I was mugged by the MMs :wink:

Also it all depends what you bought after selling at Lloyds at 66p ? most shares have also dropped 15 to 25% recently

Anyway its keeps ones feet on the ground all this fun poking


#1495

You’ve done this before!


#1496

All UK-centric stocks that have been hit by Brexit are up the last couple of days . Why? My take is that Johnson has called No Deal a failure and also announced a change in policy to allow an additional few hundred thousand extra immigrants via foreign students being allowed to stay on for 2 years after graduation.

Meaning they will qualify for 5 year naturalisation at the end of their course plus the extra stay, presumably (not sure if a student visa counts towards that). This had been restricted to 4 months since 2011 by Theresa May. Anyway, once a graduate has been in a job for a couple of years I assume it will be easy for employers to argue the need for them to stay under the current rules as having skills that can’t be replaced from the job market.

This is a real move to attract the ‘best and the brightest’ from abroad, rather than just lip-service with an actual introduction of a ‘hostile environment’.

Ironic (tragic might be a better word) that Brexit leads to extra freedoms for foreigners from all over the world but restricts options for the British.

Additional immigration is the easiest way to raise GDP, and by ensuring that the extra immigrants are graduates or above, one can assume it will also raise GDP per capita. This will act as an economic buffer for 3 years (and longer for masters and doctorates) so far as the figures are concerned during the chaos of post-Brexit uncertainty starting November 1st.

It means more demand for housing and consequently mortgages and further investment in build-to-rent properties. Hence the big rise in UK-centric banks and housebuilders. PSN +4%, TW +2.6%, BDEV +2.6%, Bellway +2.6%, CRST +3.4%, just today.

Does the policy change require legislation? If so, how does Johnson get it through parliament? I don’t know the answer to those questions which is why I hadn’t posted about it previously.

More importantly, perhaps, has the government got plans to spend more on supporting services and infrastructure for a leap in immigration - or are they going to make the same mistakes as previous governments? Will those working class areas shouting for a No Deal Brexit and an end to immigration realise this government slipped through this change on the first day parliament was closed possibly in the hope it will go unnoticed?


#1497

It has been very easy to criticise Theresa May’s xenophobic policies as Home Secretary. Counting students a immigrants was one and limiting the stay time after qualification was another. The economic benefits of the new rules are clear in that a dampener on the recruitment of students to British universities has been ended and that once those students have qualified they may apply for jobs here.

We can understand that newly qualified students may be an economic resource but more thought needs to be given to lesser qualified people who are needed for other parts of our economy.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree