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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#1498

May tried to have this changed but it is an international convention which the government was obliged to stick with. More than any other country it skews the immigration figures of the UK.

I personally agree with the policy change because there is no other way for the UK to compete in global industries like software engineering, A.I., robotics, biotech etc etc. (N.B. 50% of Silicon Valley’s graduate intake every year comes from foreign students who have studied in the USA). Never mind the ability to man the NHS, employ suitable university lecturers, fill research and development posts etc.

It is correct to underline the point I made, which possibly was lost in the whole post, which is that this is a slap in the face for those hard line Brexiteers who want to see immigration capped and does nothing directly for the Labour heartlands of working class Leave voters who feel they have been ‘left behind’ and for this reason voted Brexit. That doesn’t make the policy change wrong though. It just underlines their misunderstanding of the reasons for their austerity. IMHO.

The result may well be a deeper split between the Tories and the Brexit party. Indeed, it may see some far right Tories split from Johnson and give a boost to the Brexit party as a force just as people were beginning to think they had had their day. That just increases uncertainty which makes me think these stock price rises may be short lived.

I also would like to underline another point I made though. Brexit limits opportunities for British citizens to study or work abroad (in the EU specifically where the right is actually removed) whereas this policy, from a seemingly 100% Brexit focussed government, opens up opportunities for hundreds of thousands of non-British citizens.

If I didn’t know better I’d say this may be a precursor to a Brexit deal which includes freedom of movement for British citizens and therefore continued freedom for EU citizens to work in the UK, something Theresa May insisted must end.

That would be too logical and sensible though and for many Leave voters (enough to swing a referendum) the whole point of Brexit would be lost. Perhaps that’s why this major, pro-immigration policy shift wasn’t accompanied by the same fanfare as billions more for the police, farmers, Scotland and all the other promises made by Johnson’s government. Strange, because it costs the government nothing and does more for the economy, potentially, than any of the other policies above.


#1499

Hi Eadwig

Thanks for your useful post. I had been wondering why the large rise, had considered it might be to do with less chance of a No Deal Brexit, had not heard about the student rules change.
Not trading or holding any UK house builders so had not noticed their rise also.

LLOY and BARC giving back the rise, as I suspected.
HSBA holding steady.

ATB

soi


#1500

That’s the giveaway. HSBA still a global bank (although looks like they may be exiting France - a mistake I think), a slightly less worse scenario potentially in the UK has little impact on the bottom line so there has been less impact there.

Conversely LLOY is a relatively small regional bank very much affected.

BARC is a struggling, regional/investment bank that couldn’t get a on the Aramco deal gravy train. HSBA did though, and was always nailed on to do so. The easiest money HSBA will make over the next 2-3 years. The only bank from the UK to be involved and only one of two within the EU, Credit Suisse being the other.

Reading these boards I get the impression a lot of people haven’t fully adjusted their thinking to where the UK finance sector is now relative to the rest of the world


#1501

If one had sold at 66 when it was looking very overbought,left the money in cash, one would have avoided a 21 % drop in investment value.

Many other shares have actually performed better in that time

ATB

soi


#1502

52 has failed.

Back down it goes.
Maybe sub 50 will be seen again.

soi


#1503

Correct just a Dead Cat bounce

Hence the reason I never really posted

Cannot be that bothered to post these days to be honest

Just happy to pick up the dividend and enjoying the retirement its my time now not the works time to waste posting rubbish 24/7 :slight_smile:


#1504

I agree loads of shares are out-performing Lloyd’s Shares by a mile, actually its not short term problem here with Lloyds, its been going on since the Brexit vote in June 2016

Lloyds Bank is the biggest shareholder on the FTSE 100 … so Million’s and Millions must be spitting bullets here…

Certainly not going to encourage new investors to invest their hard earned saving on stocks and shares, the Market Maker is shooting its self in the foot big time IMHO

So basically today, I am just treating my portfolio / investments as an income fund, that’s paying a return a Juicy 6.5% annual yield ( better than any other Financial instrument I can find )

I don’t need the money today, and will never sell any of my Lloyds share under 68p, But once this hits 80p plus again I may run for the hills for good


#1505

It is not.

soi


#1506

MMs have no influence on FTSE 100 stocks

soi


#1507

You have not been looking hard enough.
Plenty better returns out there.

soi


#1508

51 will fail soon

soi


#1509

Here’s one


#1510

Divi are the only appeal at this point for LLOY
I dont know how and if they can guarantee Divi coming in future.

But if its around 2% then LLOY will be something one can hold in low interest scenario.

Everyone expect it to dive down
But before people start buying LLOY
They will wait and see how low it goes

30s would be a good buying point
could easily happen with no deal


#1511

Also Lloyds Banking Group Bill Boards are by far the most popular and loved with both traders and investors

Feel the love man …


#1512

LLOY currently up over 3 %, best riser of the banks I follow.
Actually highest riser of my trading watch list.

Good for shareholders for now, except if one re invests divi today and then it falls back.

Tough call.

ATB

soi


#1513

Surely this is an example of dividend re-investment pushing up the share price - just at the wrong time for investors looking to compound their returns?

This is a theory I’ve had for a while, although I’m the first to admit that you don’t always see such an obvious impact (or any at all).

I still believe it must have an impact for a day or two on or after divi payment date. A phenomenon that should be eased in LLOY with the return to quarterly divi payments … but that can sometimes make a DRIP reinvestment for smaller holders uneconomic .


#1514

Bulletin boards, matey. Bill boards are for advertising … hmm, given your recent comments perhaps this isn’t your dyslexia kicking in! In which case I’ll just take the opportunity that no amount of ramping by private investors on these boards will have any impact on the LLOY price.


#1515

That is what I think.
The rise could well be short lived.

I am net short. Could be wrong

soi


#1516

SOI
Net short at 6.5% return on Div in todays atmosphere …….Mmm?
However, you have called the SP on the money for ever ….but this is a tough one.
Salutations


#1517

Hi Eadwig,

IMO, there’s more to it than just the DRIP. All UK-centric stocks well up. For eg. my CNA & SBRY. Also banks like BARC. This seems more to do with the risks of No-Deal slightly diminishing. It could fall back, but today’s rise is in tandem with many other UK stocks.

FWIW, according to ii my DRIP option for LLOY will be activated within the next 2 business days. It’s not gone through yet. That may be similar for most ii clients. Note that ii are UK’s 2nd largest broker by far.

Catch all later as out until later afternoon. - Regards.