LLOYDS is going to FLY



Hi Eadwig & JW,

Obviously both of you are top posters & respected accordingly. Neither is remotely lacking in intelligence or insight. To the contrary. Disagreements on here seem par for the course. Later we tend to move on to weightier matters.

Some links (not NHS) do indeed claim that some cancer risks diminish to the level of non-smokers after 15 years. But for other cancers it’s closer to 20 years. Not worth arguing over. Quotes from link.

“After 15 years

After 15 years of having quit smoking, the likelihood of developing coronary heart disease is the equivalent of a non-smoker. Similarly, the risk of developing pancreatic cancer has reduced to the same level as a non-smoker.

After 20 years

After 20 years, the risk of death from smoking-related causes, including both lung disease and cancer, drops to the level of a person who has never smoked in their life. Also, the risk of developing pancreatic cancer has reduced to that of someone who has never smoked.”


Well found, JD.

I just remembered that Ms Eadwig and I first saw and discussed the sweeping 15 year claim about contracting cancer [N.B. non specific cancer types] on a leaflet in my G.P.'s waiting room. So I was wasting time trying to find a link. Funny how we tend to assume our information sources were internet based these days.

For all I know it is still there. I’ll check next time I’m in.

I’m surprised the current knowledge says the same goes for heart disease because you’d expect damage done to be irreparable, whereas cancer is a damaged cell out of control and every cell in your body is replaced over 12 years (I think it is).

It is an interesting question as to how smoking can affect your cancer risk past that 12 year point never mind the 20 year claim you’ve linked to and the 15 year claim I re\ad a few years ago.

Anyway, it is still a motivator to stop smoking which we should encourage anyone to do, imo.

Another different stop-smoking’ claim I remember was a warning that almost all smokers who die from sudden heart attacks and stroke do so shortly after finishing a cigarette.

A true and arresting statement implying an elevated risk at a certain time and hopefully helps motivate someone to stop smoking - but meaningless really if you think about it.

Still, if anyone wants to jump in with both feet on a statistical argument about it, feel free.


Keith Richards going fine on fags
and myself


Hi BA,

I recently assumed so, too. But even Keith is trying to or has recently quit smoking. Ditto heavy smokers like the late Lou Reed in his later years. By the by, I’m a huge fan of Reed’s & the Rolling Stones music. Especially the Brian Jones & Mick Taylor periods with latter.

A few have the constitution to smoke for most of their lives until they’re 100 years old with little obvious harm to their health. But they’re very much in the minority. I hope you’re a member of that club. - Regards.


Me too. I could give up and get maybe an extra 5 years, but i grew up with 3 adults who I watched all die slow, painful and undignified deaths in their 80s and 90s and I’m not that keen to be honest.


Better still give up smoking and get the real taste of food!! However as a non smoker I realise how difficult quitting is! My best wishes to all who try and even more to those who succeed!


Yes because most of the ex smokers are already dead within 15 years.


I am down the pub now… everyone standing outside smoking

Billy no mates

Amazing even how today with health warnings that loads still like a smoke with a beer


I might stop smoking one day - who knows


Health warnings have become a joke and no one pays attention.
“Beware Hot water” from a hot water tap.
“Mind the gap” as you fall down whilst reading the sign.

What ever happened to the aids warnings? Or is this now OK as you can pop a couple of pills and be cured? Or am I too old?



Where is the share price heading?
The shares I offloaded at 54p have limit buy backs at 52.0p, 51.5p, 51.0p, 50.5p, 50.0p, 49.5p, and 49.0p.
However, there appears to be support above 52.5p.



I’ve always liked 52.5p but you may not see it again.


I am actually looking to invest £2000 of my Lloyd’s Dividend money still

Under 50p would be a nice touch

Remember Long term I looking for 80p to 100p

I believe one day here…PPI nearly will be gone by 2020 ( back log )

Next stop that Nasty Brexit to be cleared

Then we see this baby fly


I’m looking for the holy grail but that doesn’t make it likely.

Sub 50p could return, but if it hits 60p you’ll kick yourself for not taking 53.5p.

Not wanting a brexit debate start now but asking you to consider your own opinion. Does Boris get a deal, if so you buy now. If not sell your holdings.


Post deleted

Was in the Pub


Don’t forget that Brexit hasn’t started yet and if we don’t have a deal that involves the EU setting our trade policy, an apparent red line for Johnson’s government, then it will go on for an estimated 5-15 years from the time it starts.

I have heard an alarming number of comments from people, people interviewed in the street, online and even politicians speaking as though Brexit is all over the day we leave.

Business knows that is the day it starts.

Some people apparently want to leave and never do business with Europe again! That is 50% of UK exports those people want to throw away just to show how much we hate the EU. 9% of exports for the EU. It doesn’t seem a realistic stance to me, although it could be self-fulfilling to a frighteningly large extent.

That delay impacts on LLOY, decreasingly one must assume as time goes on and we have deals with our major trading partners after, say, seven or eight years.

Looks like a long haul ahead and every likelihood of another extension followed by a general election according to most commentators, including Farage.

At some point things will settle out and the UK economy will adapt to the new reality with surviving and new businesses looking for business loans to invest and workers for mortgages as they move to the new jobs.

That will be coming from a low base and there may well be some pent up momentum that is unleashed, although it could be that most exporters that are affected have lost their market by then.

As LLOY look unlikely to go out of business, then it should be around to gain from that making LLOY a contrarian investment right now with a long term payback horizon.

OR, there is a small possibility that we end up remaining and LLOY catapults back very quickly.

However, I can’t see any outcome that satisfies all sides, which means continued uncertainty which will see less and less inward investment into the UK. So, if LLOY does catapult back then I will be selling rather than hanging around hoping a retail bank will operate well in an unsettled economy when history across multiple modern economies tells us that just isn’t likely to be the case.

Meantime I expect LLOY (and other banks) to keep laying off people with its biggest bottom line gains coming from cutting jobs and other costs like high street branches.


Hi regardless


Well Done for sticking to quitting. I am impressed.
No smoker pays any attention to the warnings, myself included.




They make me feel like giving up is giving-in to bullies and I’m less inclined.


This snippet of news today interesting & another factor behind Sterling selling off again. For those hoping for a steady UK rates rise in the event of a Brexit Deal, best assume nothing of the kind. From BBC site this morning, quote:

"Bank may cut rate even with a Brexit deal, says MPC member. Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, says it could cut the UK’s interest rate even if the government secures a deal in time for Brexit on 31 October.

In a speech to local businesses in Barnsley, Mr Saunders said: "If the UK avoids a no-deal Brexit, monetary policy also could go either way and I think it is quite plausible that the next move in Bank Rate would be down rather than up.”


Significant squeeze …DYT.?