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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#1798

I don’t know whether the FSCS will or won’t but in such a situation administrators are legally entitled to raid client accounts to pay their costs.
The FSCS covered that for Beaufort but they didn’t have to.


#1799

Or maybe given that the UK is a union of four countries: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland… it shouldn’t consider leaving the EU until all four countries each had majorities voting for it.


#1800

Hi Frog, Meant to reply to this post of your when I first saw it. If you bought when you said (around Feb 2019 - around the time of the 114p share issue ?) I’m surprised you arent up quite a bit.

Looking at the chart for TRIG:-

If you bought in Feb then you would be close to 12p ahead by now. And have received at least 2 and perhaps 3, dividends worth 1.6x each.

Obviously you must know where you stand with TRIG but Im surprised at your comment about no capital growth.

ATB

Pref


#1801

Hi @J_Westlock, I think you could be waiting a long time for these to trade close to NAV. They are very popular both with investors who like to think they are “green” and income investors due to the 5-6% dividends increasing with RPI each year in many cases. Every issue or placing in every renewable trust has been oversubscribed to date - well the ones I’m aware of anyway.

Re the government subsidies they are all very long term things (like the household FIT scheme for solar panels) they can cancel the schemes (and kill the industry to boot- as they have with household solar) but those already on the schemes keep them for 20 years+. If it werent for the subsidies / guarantees that they provide then companies wouldnt be prepared to put the money up to pay for the assets. Even if the UK does cut back on subsidies they are still the norm in Europe and most of the companies also operate there. I am more concerned about the viability of the subsidy free schemes that some of the companies are starting in the solar area.

What with all of the focus on Climate Change / Net Zero etc., electrification of everything, good dividends etc. I dont see these being anything but popular with investors for a while yet. My holdings have all done really well, all are sort of 15-25% up in total return terms since starting to invest in this sector since March 2018.

Just my opinion obviously !.

ATB

Pref


#1802

Hi Pref,

The answer as to why I haven’t made much on TRIG as yet is that I have been adding steadily and increasingly to my holding over the year.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#1803

Yes @PrefInvestor1
I’m certainly not knocking the sector and would like to invest in it.

The popularity of these trusts at the moment is also one of the risks… what is fashionable today might not be in the future.
Apart from the subsidies… and I note that Greencost’s revenue is all subsidies under the Irish “Refit” scheme for the next 11 years… it’s also the high gearing.
UKW is 59% geared and GRP is geared at 69%.

Nonetheless, I’ll look at the new issues.


#1804

I know you have seen this previously, but thought it might be of interest to others given the trend of the conversation right now. Deutsche bank clearly see the fashion continuing - and there is already so much money under management it is starting to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, imo.

image


#1805

Hi Again @J_Westlock, Well if you want my opinion the various Governments are all trying to do renewables and green energy on the cheap by getting private companies to do all the heavy lifting. Thats why subsidies and a strong regulatory system are essential or the large capital sums required to make it happen could not be raised. That’s also why the companies have large amounts of debt and are regularly doing new shares issues to raise more capital, either to buy more assets or pay off some debt.

Investing is never without its risks though is it ?.

If you are interested in the sector you might find this topic over on the Lemon Fool of interest:-

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=17343&sid=0a8428212c88d86fb47385d11a748b6b

As you will see I am active there…

ATB

Pref


#1806

Thanks @PrefInvestor1
I just spent some time reading through some of the posts and links as well as look up more on some of the Trust details.

Yes, of course… everything is about risk with investing and you have to attempt to quantify that against the potential rewards over whatever timeframe is important to you.

You raised something recently that I also thought about… I’m not sure I’ll be able to access some (or any) of the new issues if I’m not already an investor… or are there some issues that are for new retail investors buying in the $1,000’s rather than £hundreds 000’s range?

Still a lot for me to consider before I put anything more into this sector (above the little I’ve dabbled in already).
On the face of it, the simple (and factual) story that energy production (in parts of the world at least) are getting greener clearly means that many of these outfits in solar, wind etc should do well… which is a large part of why they are popular and well above NAV.
That… and the fact that they have each had some decent increases if you bought a couple of years or so ago.
However, that has to be balanced against a few things: some of the companies the trusts invest in appear to be small and potentially risky, still unhappy with paying such (very) large premiums over NAV, not happy with some of the ‘accounting tricks’ being practiced which raise a flag with me… and without Government (not just UK… Ireland and elsewhere) subsidy schemes like RESS and REFIT the SP could dramatically reduce.
I can’t help thinking that there are a number of things that can severely dent the SPs of some of the trusts in this particular sector.

So… it’s about balancing the risks (and in that quite a few unknowns)… against the rewards.


#1807

Hi Again @J_Westlock, Let me try to give you a quick response on some of the points that you’ve raised:-

  1. Regarding the ability to buy these trusts. In the 18 months or so that I have built up my holdings I’ve had seen quite a few placings and issues. Some have been open to anyone, others to existing investors only and some to institutional investors only. You just have to read the RNS and see who can apply, I don’t have a fortune invested in any of them - as you know that’s not my style. One thing about ALL of the placings and issues is that they have ALL knocked the share price back somewhere close to the offer price providing the opportunity for anyone to buy in.
  2. As for “accounting tricks” I think that you may be referring to one recent post from someone trying to analyse the UKW accounts. He had recently been burned investing in Burford Capital and was therefore determined to do his due diligence. I looked at what he was saying and while I couldn’t make sense of all of the figures presented in the accounts other parts were quite clear and certainly I had the impression that much effort had been made to fairly value the company - but then I’m not an accountant so I can give no guarantees. But I am reassured by the fact that UKW is held by numerous other large trusts, including the highly defensive Capital Gearing Trust and I find it hard to believe that they have not done their due diligence as they have quite a large holding.
  3. All that said the instigator of that thread on the Lemon Fool has recently stated that he has now sold all his renewable holdings due to the high premiums situation. The one holding he has retained is GSF a very small trust which specialises in battery storage, no doubt a good thing In the future but having investigated battery storage when I bought my solar panels it is not something that I’d want to invest in. He is fairly adventurous investor and he has put his money into a collection of unloved stocks, and good luck to him. Needless to say this has not changed my views on the renewables sector.

As always as investors in the end you must form your own conclusions and think carefully before investing, especially in anything new and unfamiliar.

ATB

Pref


#1808

I suppose we are all wondering which way the FTSE 100 will head this week.

Despite the heavy falls last week, at least LLOY kept its head above 50p. I think that this indicates that there is substance and support for the rise in its sp over recent weeks. Still, with “B” still lurking in the wings anything could happen.

On Friday the FTSE 100 bounced up 1.10% Maybe a dead cat bounce?

Even without “B”, the outlook doesn’t look good. Both the UK and Germany are teetering on the edge of a recession that is well overdue. The Groper’s trade wars are unsettling markets and taking a toll on China, Germany and also the US itself.

I think that the market may recover a little more next week but the situation looks volatile.

Anyone’s guess I suppose.

Frog in a tree


#1809

Hi Frog, Well just after 11:30 on Sunday night now and futures have been open for 30 mins. US futures are down 0.3-0.4%, oil is down 0.5% and GBP is up a smidge against the USD and EUR etc. IG has the FTSE 100 and STOXX 50 flat ATM.

Unless US futures recover my bet is that Monday will likely be a down day or at best flat. That may change overnight but that’s my guess right now.

Could be totally wrong of course !.

ATB

Pref


#1810

Yes all agreed @PrefInvestor1
I was referring to the real-appraisal of NAV upwards as an “accounting trick” by the way. I did read the post on LF by that chap talking about “operating profit” I think… but didn’t have time to check it out myself.
I would only add that finding out what some of the companies are doing within these trusts isn’t easy… and some I wonder if they are profitable.

Investment in renewables is a mixed picture globally and it isn’t all one way.

Re: Capital Gearing Trust… I’m afraid I don’t trust their “due diligence” any more than any other outfit trying to attract my money. That fund in particular adds yet another level of obscurity in what is actually happening with your money.

All these things sound great in a currently rising market sector where there are more (usually repeat contributing) punters eagerly seeking to pump more money into them but pricing these is a tricky matter and there are enough warning signs there on the small set of ITs available to mean… for me… it will remain well sub 1% of my wad… not that those Fund Managers will miss my meagre amounts.


#1811

Update FOLKS

This thread is now 12 months old

I / We seen us fly from 58p to 51p

Ok not a great 12 months to say the least, fundamentally Lloyds Banking Group has had a reasonable 12 months so outside influences has taken the share price down IMHO

Fingers crossed and personally starting to go to church starting this Sunday, Praying we see a better 12 months fellow Black Beauty Investors :slight_smile:

Lets get God on OUR side


#1812

… and what is the pence per share paid over the 12 months?


#1813

I meant to add to the above that the legal entity of Interactive Brokers you register with is determined by your country of legal residence and where your tax is paid.
For a UK resident, your account would usually be under their legal entity of IB UK.

I had wondered whether that would mean you weren’t covered by the US Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) but instead by the UK FCA…but as I was going to open an IB account some months back I checked it out and as your assets are held with US Custodian with legal entity of entity IBLLC… you are still covered for the full SIPC amount.

IB has a decent if clunky trading system with all features you’d need but it really is for frequent traders and there’s a fee for inactivity… which is what put me off in the end.


#1814

Oct 2018 - Oct 2019 3.26p I reckon. See the LLOY bank dividends entry on Stockopedia at the link below:-

https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/lloyds-banking-LON:LLOY/dividends/

I must say that I thought that the “Style” entry displayed in red near the top left of this page was somewhat amusing !.

ATB

Pref


#1815

FTSE 100 up

BARC up + 0.98% today

HSBA up 0.4% today

LLOY down 0.63% today.

The only truth is the tape.

Whilst Brexit/UK politics/Trump all playing a part LLOY fundamentals hardly been good, have worsened in the last 6 months.
Fairly obvious.

soi


#1816

so 7pps capital lost but almost half returned in 12 months, less, what? 3% inflation? Difficult to see the attraction …


#1817

hmm? I think that might be specific to your personal browser?

… oh hang on, I see it now …

Style
Value Trap