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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#1838

Boris will revoke article 50, Law obsolete!

Leave on 31st, I doubt it.


#1839

I tell you what is not making sense, we go no deal and the EU can’t and won’t do Jack on that border.

EU all huff and bluff, how does no deal beat anything.


#1840

Hi @regardless, Yes those penny stocks are just russian roulette - you might get lucky occasionally, mostly they just blow your brains out.

Thats £20,000 of the £50,000 you said that you’d lost. Where did the other £30,000 go ? (if you dont mind me asking).

ATB

Pref


#1841

We have a lot of posters who take an interest in tiny oil and mining stocks. Most of us have never heard of these stocks. I spent a couple of minutes looking over a few of them in terms of their five year share price performance and what you see is a lot of volatility but mostly going nowhere. Yes, you could make money by well timed buying and selling but I reckon that this is done mostly by those “in the know” and not so much by the small investor. So, yes, investing in these stocks is a form of gambling or roulette and most of us are better off investing in mainstream stocks.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#1842

I totally agree with you.
I avoid the small cap oil and mining stocks.

Also agree, best to mostly stick with large cap stocks, whether for investment or trading.
A lot more clarity with the larger stocks, as well as decent liquidity and far tighter spreads.

ATB

soi


#1843

Personally I would say that most people would be better off avoiding stocks completely and only investing in ITs and ETFs, thats what I mostly do these days. Investing in individual stocks is like a minefield, they are forever blowing up in your face. Investing in AIM stocks (or other penny stocks) is an EVEN denser minefield with BIGGER mines !.

ATB

Pref


#1844

Whilst we agree on the avoidance of AIM, I do not agree on the need to avoid FTSE 100 and 250 stocks. Yes, there is always some risk with individual stocks but the sensible precaution is to diversify your investments among 15 or more individual stocks and with some of the pot going into unit and investment trusts, some of which have international exposure. Markets do rise and fall and so we can not eliminate risks but time is the healer as investments surely rise over time. I maintain a bias towards yield rather than growth stocks. My biggest holding is RDSB at 10% of my portfolio. I don’t lose sleep over my investments. Each to his own.

Frog in a tree


#1845

Who suggested avoiding FTSE 100 or 250 stocks?


#1846

Hi Frog, Well I’m not totally convinced by that argument. My High Yield Portfolio that I carefully researched and set up when I moved out of Prefs was mostly FTSE 100 stocks with a few FTSE 250s in the mix as well. It had 55 holdings in total. With the high prevalence of 10% drops in FTSE 100 (and 250) stocks I felt that the risk of getting hit by these was just too great, so I restructured my portfolio again.

I still follow that old portfolio and no time hasnt been a healer. 11 of the holdings are 10%+ down in total return terms and some far worse than that. Overall the diversity and small individual holding sizes helped to minimise the damage, but overall the portfolio is down compared with my current portfolio which includes only 6 single stocks.

Day to day volatility in my new portfolio is much reduced compared to my High Yield portfolio. I dont know about you but I really dont go much on seeing my portfolio value drop by many thousands in a day when the markets are having a strop. I greatly prefer the more tranquil performance.

ATB

Pref


#1847

Given that you have a 10% holding in Shell, are you following the two court cases going on involving Shell & Nigeria ? (One in the UK the other in Holland). Been reading some of the background myself and I dont like the sound of it much. Could be very significant costs if they lose…

Glad that I havent got 10% invested there, TBH I am considering selling my 3.5% !. Waiting to get some feedback over on the Lemon Fool before I do anything. Might be a storm in a teacup I really dont know TBH.

ATB

Pref


#1848

As we discussed recently, my portfolio reached all all time high (with all divis reinvested) just before the latest drop amounting to 3.75%. I tend not to fret about movements in the market…easy as I am not reliant on my investments for capital or income. I could be hypersensitive and sell on bad news and buy back when there is a fair wind and maybe I might make a bit more even after buy or sell expenses. But tant pis! As for Shell, am aware of the cases. Shell is big and can absorb a few punches.

Cheers,

Frog


#1849

With a portfolio like that I agree you may as well be in a tracker.

Picking individual stocks is the only way to out perform the market though - or at least have a chance of doing so.

The case was dropped by U.S. Department of Justice yesterday (or possibly this morning). you can bet Nigeria will follow. Lemon fool is obviously not giving you up-to-date info.


#1850

Hi @Eadwig, Well there, like here, one is dependant upon people with knowledge or information posting what they know. Where have you got your information from, I can find nothing definitive online ?.

ATB

Pref


#1851

back to 50
now closer to Brexit
Lets see how LLOY fares
or
Tumbles


#1852

If it turns out that we have a no deal Brexit then I would expect a negative reaction in the market and for the LLOY sp. What we can’t be sure of is to what extent a no deal Brexit is priced in at the moment. I reckon that it is to a substantial degree but lots will depend on whether we subsequently enter into economic turmoil. Underneath it all LLOY is a decent company and I dont think it will go out of business anytime soon. It may represent too much risk for some.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#1853

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3503460-doj-drops-shell-probe-nigerian-oil-deal


#1854

Not sure about a ‘decent company’, but I don’t think there is too much risk of it going out of business, even through a No Deal Brexit induced depression in the UK.

The big question throughout any prolonged downturn for investors will be if it can maintain its dividend as its main business is squeezed in a protracted, low rate, high default environment.

Beyond that the question is could your money earn more elsewhere through such a period, which could easily be a full business cycle of 10+ years, and does LLOY still have any skeletons left in its voluminous closets?

I think plenty of companies with foreign earnings have better growth prospects and similar yields.


#1855

Hi @Eadwig, Thanks for that. Always good too see some solid evidence in print !.

ATB

Pref


#1856

Dingbat
Lloyds
Selling in the UK.
Buying continuous LYG in USA
Do they know something we don’t OR have they done their homework?
Tell me…please
Salutations
PS Will be out for a few hours


#1857

LYG: -0.8%
Looks like all that continuous US buying is sending it downwards.