LLOYDS is going to FLY



Well @Eadwig, I can only do anything about those things that I am personally in control of. Whatever I do personally I cannot affect the brexit outcome and see no point arguing about it. What will be will be and we just need to make the best of it.

Inflation has not been high this last year, both as per the BOE figures and our personal experience. Actually we have spent slightly less this year than last (my wife records ALL expenditure so we know our situation pretty precisely).

Have a good weekend.




You must have stocks that are affected though. I’m not arguing about Brexit - I’m just pointing out the impact it is and has been having on stock prices, mostly driven by GBP weakness, but also Labour’s stated policies and the potential for yet another General Election with a chance they may get power.

Personally I don’t think there will be a deal. Johnson appears to have backed himself into a corner by adamantly naming 31st October as the leave date and is obviously giving away things that May didn’t have to (see chemical, aerospace and defence, auto and pharma industries in the papers today) because he is desperate now not for the electorate to see him preside over any extension as he realises that will probably be the end of his tenure.

Whether or not he will be prepared to show contempt of the law and crash us out with No Deal remains to be seen. I believe he will because ultimately he wants power.

I know you don’t want to discuss it so I wont expect a response - but there are others here reading this discussion board.

I wonder if you and your wife have noticed, as I have, that many products have not gone up in price but have reduced in size/weight? as someone who is out of the country for 2-3 months at a time, I notice it every time I return. One or more products in my normal shop has always gone up in price or the product has reduced in size. Returning next Saturday and I expect to see it again.

You say inflation isn’t that high, but it is higher than it would have otherwise been and higher than most years previously for a long time and appears to correlate with the Brexit situation (see chart below).

Pensioners are doing well with their 2.5% minimum triple lock on RPI because their pensions have risen above that in recent times, and that costs all of us that pay tax too.

I’m not disputing your wife’s figures, you understand, but I’m sure you realise that our individual experiences aren’t necessarily representative whereas the ONS exists to produce figures that are:


Hi Again @Eadwig, Sorry but I have limited time now, off out in a minute. To answer some of your points I would say:

  1. As far as I am concerned the rules of the “game” are all set by someone else. I just try to observe and play as best I can.
  2. I have long since dumped all holdings that I thought were directly affected by brexit or a possible Labour government. In consequence while I made some money yesterday I didn’t make the stellar returns that some will have achieved.
  3. Your ONS chart doesn’t look too bad. Anything less than 3% I am not too unhappy with, but obviously the lower the better. Only about 50% of our income is triple lock or otherwise inflation protected, that’s in part why the investment income is important.
  4. Yes we have noticed the packaging size / price issue that you mentioned (I go shopping too these days).

Lindsell Train GE (and FundSmith & Rathbone Gbl Opps) all down 1.5-2% yesterday (currency ?) :slightly_frowning_face:. But US up big yesterday so hopefully they will come back next week so I can exit and put the money into a dividend earner.

Last post for me today…




Exactly my argument about “sovereignty” and why it isn’t something individuals should be concerning themselves with, certainly not taking a 20% ‘pay cut’ over.

The only real sovereignty for the individual in our society is measured in GBP and how much it is worth at home in the UK and across the world, especially with regard to USD which all commodities are priced in whether we like it or not.

I did too but then I inherited a load that are almost all badly affected by the recent uncertainty for UK-centric stocks. I also had 6 figure commitments made abroad BEFORE the referendum was announced. That has cost me a lot of money over the last 3.5 years and continues to do so.

Actually I edited the original ONS chart and replaced with the existing one which are the same source but over a longer period and more up-to-date too; showing the inflation first caused by the Brexit devaluation working through the system. CPI is still high given the economy is flat-lining at around 0% growth despite very low interest rates.

I think the correlation between Brexit and the weak pound is very, very obvious. Which was the point I was making previously. 3% may not be ‘too bad’, but for those getting 1% pay rises in the NHS or in interest on their savings etc then you do feel it, I assure you.

I’m sure you understand as an investor that a 5% dividend really only starts after you have allowed for inflation. 3% CPI means a 2% return in real terms and putting money in stocks is a big risk for just 2%. Big enough for 5%, lets face it. If I could get 10% return as my parents did on their savings in a building society I’d sell 90% of my stocks tomorrow. (the building society went bust!).

In fact the UK dodged a bullet in that this all happened around a time of massively depressed oil prices and other countries devaluing their currency by varying degrees also. Otherwise we could have seen inflation at something more like 6% or 7%, I believe, if oil and commodity prices had been closer to the average from the previous 10 years.

However, the real point is that it is all a cost of Brexit which was supposedly going to save us all money when clearly it has cost a tremendous amount so if it happens it is already in a massive deficit which it has to make up with all its benefits - none of which anyone seems to be able to name or describe, by the way. I’m not hopeful, personally.

I don’t mind playing ‘the game’ with the hand I’m dealt. I do draw the line at the rules being changed at half time though.

Hopefully you think these re valid points about Brexit and not some attempt at point scoring. As an investor I’ve been dismayed at how few people here have prepared to actually talk about how to get through the Brexit process with investments intact or bettered.

I’m afraid I don’t buy all that ‘jam tomorrow’ stuff about Brexit, I’ll invest in an AIM oiler if I want to hear that stuff.


A good end to the week as hopes of something bettter than a no-deal rise. On the week my portfolio was up 3%. That will do. Definitely a split in sentiment between UK facing and overseas focussed investments. As the day’s unit trust prices came in yesterday evening this was very clear with those focussed in other parts of the world down a bit. The current situation is that my portfolio is down around 1% from its all-time high attained on 30 September. If the talks with the EU hit the rocks then the market could fall back again but, hopefully, the international exposure in my portfolio could cushion the fall. Best of all in terms of portfolio value would be for Article 50 to be revoked altogether.


Frog in a tree


What does next week hold for the markets?

If Brexit talks continue in any meaningful sense with the aim of avoiding no deal then the outlook could be quite positive.

In the US The Groper seems to be reining in his tariff threats against China and this too could improve sentiment.

With both Brexit and the China/US trade talks literally anything could happen. We wait and see but my hunch is that markets will rise.

Any views?

Frog in a tree


Lloyd’s straight back into the swinging 60’s Eric


Hi @Eadwig, Well we’ve been to Cambridge today (from Reading) to visit our son and his family. Bit of a trek but mainly on motorways and A roads, takes sort of 100-120 mins depending on the traffic. Not nice coming back in the dark this time of year. But absolutely worth it to see them all, especially the three grandchildren who are most attentive when we visit.

Not really quite sure how to respond to your post on brexit. I do recognise that you are uniquely disadvantaged by your dual life here and in Poland, and the associated currency effects I am sure have been significant.

You talk about a “20 percent salary cut” and I’m guessing by that you are referring to the fall in the value of the GBP vs overseas currencies including the USD. But those of us who are permanent UK residents and who have no desire to venture abroad (been there and done that many many times when I was working and now I don’t have any desire to travel anywhere again TBH) have not been damaged quite that badly. Our actual expenditure figures are proof of that… Yes inflation is higher than I would like and that’s why my prime focus is on growing our investment income, which I have managed to do quite successfully since March 2018. Capital increases are nice but some losses on occasion are unavoidable regrettably, but steady increases in income (aided by dividend reinvestment) are a viable goal and one that I consider the main aim of all my investing activities. I figure that as long as I can outpace inflation through my investing activities then our financial situation should remain viable. Were we totally in cash it would be a different story…….

I can see no real way to have avoided the impact of the falling GBP. Moving large amounts of capital into foreign currency accounts would have been costly and might not have been the right thing to do (and STILL might not be). It has also occurred to me that those who have maintained a totally UK focus since the referendum (eg investing only in FTSE 100 and All Share Investments) have done pretty well really, avoiding much of the impact of the currency moves (at least they have been far less affected than investing overseas of late). I am pondering a measured reduction in some of my overseas investments but will wait to see how the coming week plays out first.

Your inherited investments in housebuilders and utilities must have done extremely well on Friday. Their performance was quite unbelievable really, especially when so many other “solid stocks” were firmly in the red.

Anyway time for a game of online chess before I sleep……



PS Chess was good, Won 2 Lost 0 against highly ranked overseas opponents. Time to sleep now…


A lot of the cash I had committed to spend was coming from a 25 year endowment. It matured July 2016, almost exactly 1 month AFTER the referendum. After 25 years I had a fairly close idea of how much it would be and how much that would convert into. After the referendum the figures worked out 20% less. I never had the chance to move it in advance or i would have.

Housebuilders yes, utilities, not so much. Many stocks, and the GBP, are not back to where they were when May’s deal was on the table. That is a fairly good measure of Johnson’s deal and how things stand, the fx market especially.


Far from unique. Over a million of us and that is only counting UK citizens.

I think you are basically wrong about this, although it is understandable why. Many people may well have done ‘pretty well’, but they haven’t done as well as investing in other indices. When I talk about a 20% pay cut etc I’m basically measuring our prosperity to the rest of the world. I think that is the modern reality and looking at it any other way is a tad blinkered.

You can be sure foreigners looking-in see it exactly as I have described. Just spend a little time watching CNBC or Bloomberg with some American talking head talking about the UK economy.

From your perspective that doesn’t matter as you have made clear (I think it does, but I’m not going to argue with you about your own accounts).

Most people in the UK DO buy things from abroad, directly or mostly indirectly E.g. electricity, oil, gas, petrol, cotton, coffee, rice, wine and even rice wine to name just a few.

Very, very few of us live off things that are just made or grown here, and even if we do, those providers’s prices have gone up because they are obliged to use products or services from abroad.

However, I’m not so interested in our personal positions as a point of discussion but where we think things will go from here, what impact that will have on investments and how to play that. I.e. Possible scenarios and their impact on investments

IF you have any ideas, that is, going forward. My personal position is meant I have spent a lot of the last 3.5 years trying to avoid losses rather than concentrating on making money, so I’m looking for people who are prepared to discuss the future investment environment.

Investments don’t have to be within the UK. Of course the current fx rate does matter, but I have managed to get plenty of my cash in USD so the poor exchange rate right now isn’t a factor.

What is a factor is the slowing global economy and the trade wars between China and USA, although they seem to have eased a little at the end of the week, and where it all may end up.


Hi Again @Eadwig, Well your previous posts made me ask myself the question “ How has our net worth fared since the 2016 referendum?”.

So I took a look at our accounts and our net worth has increased by ~25% since June 2016 and would have been EVEN more if we hadn’t lost a significant amount due to the Pref crash in 2018. But we aren’t typical I’m sure.

However I quite see that your situation is very different and the timing of everything has been very bad for you.




Good read Eadwig / PrefInvestor1


Lloyd’s News :slight_smile:

Investors in the UK’s stock market are expected to enjoy a £240bn “deal dividend” if Boris Johnson can seal a last-gasp Brexit agreement before the Oct 31 deadline.

Stocks in London would rise 10pc and the pound would claw back 8pc against the dollar if a Brexit deal is reached, according to market stress tests conducted by data giant MSCI.


Hi Again @Eadwig, Well we have totally different investing styles and approaches (as you are well aware), mine income based and yours growth based. My aspirations and targets are far more modest than yours, and I’m pretty sure the things that attract me investment-wise wouldn’t interest you, and vice versa.

There’s a new growth strategies investment board over on the Lemon Fool now (previously TLF has been almost totally income focussed which is why it appeals to me), maybe you should keep an eye on that for ideas ?





INVESTING SHOW: Are ‘cheap’ bank shares an opportunity to profit or a value trap?


Hi @regardless, Couldn’t read the article as my free subscription seems to have expired. But an 8 percent move up against the USD would cause the same sort of effect as we saw on Friday, UK domestic stocks would do very well and stocks with large overseas earnings would do very badly. Trouble is that if the deal DOESNT happen then probably EXACTLY the reverse will be the case.

You are totally in the LLOY (& BARC ?) camp so might win big if there’s a deal or might lose out if there isnt. Whereas I have about 30% exposure to overseas stuff now, so Im probably going to win with some holdings and lose on others - just like I did on Friday. Any attempt to “improve” on that would expose me to greater losses if things go the other way.

Using stop losses would be OK if the moves happened DURING the business day. But stop losses are USELESS (even dangerous IMV) when news comes out when markets are closed, as your holdings then gap down at the open and you end up selling at a very bad price :slightly_frowning_face:. And as the Parliament vote is next Saturday my guess is that Monday 21st could be the really big moving day ?.

Really not sure what’s going to happen this week but things may move as a consequence of people taking up positions in advance of the vote AND might benefit somewhat from the US China trade deal. I doubt we are going to hear much out of the negotiations with the EU, though I guess no news will be good news ?.

All pure guesswork on my part !. Take care whatever you decide to do…




Hi there Prefinvestor,

Just to show you that I still look for your postings I was interested to see that you gauge “our” nett worth to have increased by around 25percent since the referendum in 2016.

Were you suggesting a general “our” rather one that was specific to your family?

I took a look at my “nett worth” calculated at the close of business on the day before the referendum and again at the close of business last Friday.

According to my simplistic assumptions and also my poorish maths I calculate thet my nett worth since the referendum has increased overall by just 3.5 percent and that includes my new car, increases in pensions and swapping my individual holdings for IT’s. But then the result would have been poorer had I not sold out of most of the individual holdings that I had.

Perhaps I have spent far more since the referendum on myself rather than squirreled it away or a rainy day / grandchildren.

I hope you are keeping well

Best regards



Hi TJ and Pref,

My experience from referendum day to date is that my portfolio has increased by 24%, counting reinvested dividends. My portfolio is mostly yield focussed, mainly FTSE100 and with biggish chunks in Europe and Asian- focussed unit trust investments. The sterling devaluation following the referendum helped my big FTSE holdings.

24% seems quite similar to Pref’s calculation.


Frog in a tree


Hi @frog_in_a_tree and @trader_jack, Sorry for any confusion caused by use of the word “our”, by which I meant “my wife and I” rather than any other broader grouping.

And the net worth I was referring to was not just my portfolio but cash etc as well. So any relationship with your number frog is I’m sure purely coincidental.

The point I was trying to make obviously was that despite the devaluation of the GBP and other economic challenges caused by brexit our family assets have continued to increase. And in our case it really can’t totally be down to our investments, given the pref losses that we suffered in March 2018.

Eadwig I thought was making a case for the effects of brexit since the referendum having caused financial losses, and in his case I can see that this is true. But I was trying to point out that I do not believe it to be universally true and his situation is likely a special case that does not apply to a normal UK resident (such as myself). Yes we have inflation to cope with, which has been higher than it was prior to the referendum, but this has not been a big enough problem as yet to cause real financial problems to those with sufficient income. Though clearly it is not desirable.




Well… that’s the point isn’t it? For those with sufficient savings and reasonable knowledge/access to stock markets then we are able to invest in markets and stocks largely unaffected (yet… or at all) by Brexit.
How many people have a Stock ISA? About 3 million in the whole of the UK. That’s about the same number as those who trade in shares in a DIY fashion.

I didn’t vote to Leave the EU… and won’t when/if we get that choice again… but the last couple of years or so have been great as careful use of FX Options (though scary at times) since 2016 has meant record profits for me… just unfortunate that I’ve had to realise most of that earlier than I expected… but a nice problem to have.

Most people in the UK are unable to do that… and their savings and pensions are woefully inadequate.
For them, though they may not realise it, Brexit will a financial disaster.
To date, they have only seen issues with the ‘uncertainty’… for some that has already meant their jobs going. They have not yet seen the full impacts of the UK leaving the EU… as we haven’t left yet… and the high potential for product price rises, increases in unemployment, services disappearing… and inevitably higher taxes to pay for all the bungs to NI and various industries promised support to counter the ill effects of Brexit… and as just one example… to counter the loss of £8bn pa in loss of corp tax from the global financial institutions based in UK who now are now pushing their non-UK business through EU state legal entities.

If Brexit happens then as @Eadwig said… we will be in for years of detailed negotiations with the EU and other countries on trade agreements and working out what happens to other matters… in the meantime, those who will be hit will be largely those without much money whilst we will still be able to invest in global markets.