I wasn’t. I’m actually trying to get some recognition that devaluation of the pound has indeed been caused by Brexit, as has the increase inflation we have seen since the referendum. I think the case is proved beyond doubt after the market moves related to a possible deal last week.
It is a breakthrough to the truth, imo, to get that admitted to by those who don’t wish to acknowledge ‘Project Fear’ has indeed played out in the first phase, which to my mind means it is very likely to also be right in the second phase. I.e. post Brexit.
Individual’s net worth is interesting but rather irrelevant to these macro economic questions. My net worth has more than doubled since the referendum if measured in GB pounds, however, without checking any stats, I’m prepared to bet that the rise in the FTSE 100, if you could strip out the foreign earnings effect, is well down on other major indices.
Indeed, with an 8% extra for UK-centric stocks as mentioned in an article above, we will still be well down on what our net worth would have been, when measured against a basket of foreign currencies.
@PrefInvestor1 is sticking to his GBP valuations, which might well be 100% relevant to his own situation, but I’m doubtful you can just strip out GBP versus other currencies in a globally connected trading world.
If this current deal goes through, we’ll see a rise in UK-centric stocks (although NOT to valuations above pre-referendum levels in most cases) and we will see a drop in many FTSE 100 foreign earners as a response to a rise in the value of GBP…
Then it is a question of uncertainty surrounding the content of the deal and the start of trade negotiations. Investors will have to make some adjustments to the way they think about the UK stocks we are most used to. Even if there is a deal with the 8% predicted rise, I think it will then fall back as we settle in for the long-haul. That might happen very quickly because there are bound to be some immediate company exits from the UK and also some smaller companies will go under because of unforeseen complications (lets hope they don’t have outstanding loans with LLOY)
Longer term, say over a year, we may start to see how earnings are affected. However, if the deal means we have a 2 year grace period, as I believe is supposed to be part of a deal where nothing much changes initially, it could take 3 years for that to start showing up.
It is going to take a lot of nimble footwork to avoid getting burnt during the process. No one on any side is predicting that the UK will be better off, especially in the short-medium term.
I think we’ll be worse off in the longer term also, not least because we have a lot of losses to make up from the pre-Brexit process. Personally, I might be about to get a big boost because Poland’s Law and Justice party appear to have just won a majority which should weaken the zloty - in which a lot of my planned spending is priced in. When they became the bigger party in the last election, the zloty lost about 15%.
I find discussing this (Brexit) with people is worthwhile and helps me to plan my investment strategy. However, far too often when I point out what I think are the facts, I get shouted down by people saying I’m supporting ‘Project Fear’ when actually i’m just trying to make, or avoid losing, money in the game we’re all playing - but it is difficult to get people to see what playing field we are actually on, which means it is almost impossible to get a proper discussion going. In 25 years of investing, I’ve never known such a mad situation.