Nickel US$ 12,420/t vs US$12,520/t yesterday
Supply tightness is creating growing anxiety as battery metal consumers look to draw greater volumes in expanding capacity, according to the latest assessment of Bloomberg NEF. “Nickel is now the metal creating the most concern in the battery manufacturing community”, James Frith adds.
Cathode market leader Umicore SA also add supply constraints could push nickel prices up to as much as $20,000-$25,000/t.
“None of these big shortages have yet come to pass and it’s hard to imagine an industry which is investing tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars transitioning to EVs being stopped by a few billion shortfall in nickel mining investment,” BNEF analyst Logan Goldie-Scot reports.
While supply tightness isn’t expected to derail the growing EV sector, there could be delays in the widespread adoption of high nickel chemistries such as NMC (811) – cathode composed on 80% nickel, 10% manganese and 10% cobalt.
Such a move would slow the adoption of higher energy density batteries, possibly slowing battery cost reductions, he added.
Rewriting Moores and being true "Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is now tracking 70 lithium ion battery megafactories underconstruction across four continents, 46 of which are based in China with only five currently planned for the US When I gave my last testimony in October 2017, the global total was at17. "
Can you imagine the amount of raw materials that will be needed?
Being the nickel Stocks in the LME, just above 200,000Tn, to divide all these stocks by the new magafactories, would be crazy.
Taking the Reuters news from October 19, 2018 “Flow of LME nickel to hidden storage dents bull story”, and if it is true that ,there are 465,000 Tn hidden storage …
To summarize, we need Tsingshan Holding Group’s project to invest $ 700 million in an Indonesian project to produce battery-grade nickel-metal, because nickel and raw material needs are huge.
"The market to watch is not so much the ebb and flow of nickel and vanadium prices, it’s how are electric vehicle sales are going because that’s the end market.
“And if that really starts to take off, metal prices will follow.”
That might be stating the blindingly obvious but it needs to be said.
In The Year 2030…
“China closely reflects the conditions of the global auto market and is likely to impact the demand for gasoline over the next 10-20 years. This has been reported as a possible devastating hit to the oil industry due to the anticipated decline in future demand for oil and gasoline. But, based on the above figures, it is estimated that the increased demand for EVs as opposed to gasoline powered autos may reduce oil consumption by approximately 5 million barrels per day - or 5 percent of the daily production. In 2017-18, EVs displaced only about 50,000 barrels of the 100 million per day global demand, according to IHS.”
Way off the mark yet again. Even if EV adoption only experiences a CAGR of 50% by 2030 oil demand will fall by 10m barrels. EV adoption is likely to average more than 50% going forward. If TAAS becomes as pervasive as predicted with 20% of the world’s fleet of cars doing 80% of the miles travelled oil consumption will fall even further. TAAS vehicles will be EVs becuase it doesn’t make economic sense to be anything else.
Some interesting stats in this McKinsey report.
Still far too conservative IMO.
Could Ultracapacitors Replace Batteries In Future Electric Vehicles?
With recent acquisitions of ultracapacitor manufacturers by the likes of Tesla, ultracapacitor could be on the verge of ousting batteries as the go-to power source for electric cars.
Ultracapacitors, also called supercapacitors or electrochemical capacitors, are a kind of energy storage system that has been gaining popularity in recent years. They can be thought of as akin to a cross between an ordinary capacitor and a battery, but different from both.
Just like a battery, ultracapacitor cells have a positive and negative electrode separated by an electrolyte. But, unlike batteries, ultracapacitors store energy electrostatically (like a capacitor) rather than chemically like a battery.
When compared to batteries, ultracapacitors do store less energy than a similarly sized battery. But, they are able to release it much more rapidly as the discharge is not dependent on a chemical reaction taking place.
91,000 EVs sold in China in January!!! That probably means 130k to 140k for January worldwide. January 2018 saw 82,000 sold globally. 130k this January would mean a 58% increase YoY, 140k would mean 70% YoY. Anywhere in-between would be fine.
Canceled warrants in the LME are at their highest since the start of August 2018, live warrants are at their lowest in over 7 years. There’s a bit of a stand-off when it comes to the total amount of nickel in the LME but that’s going to give at some point, either an end to the trade war or an increase in demand from battery makers.
A relatively modest reduction in LME nickel stocks of 210 tonnes today. Live warrants continue to drop as canceled warrants continue to rise. Looks like somebody is trying to corner the market.