How much nickel is or has been transferred to hidden stocks?
LME data week from October 14 to 18
Live Warrants started the week at 50.958and ended at 51.282, Cancelled Warrants started the week at 47.604 and ended at 35.298.
Opening Stocks are now at 86.580 -11.982
Live warrants in the LME dropped yesterday by over 10,500 tonnes. The live warrants total now stands at 40,554 tonnes.
Interesting article but I’m not sure its correct.
The attempts to corner the silver and copper markets in the past had nothing behind them. Nickel, on the other hand, has emerging demand for lithium ion batteries. Demand for nickel from that sector may be relatvely small at the moment but demand will grow and grow very rapidly. I’m not convinced this is the sort of doomed speculative bubble the article suggests but only time will tell.
Live warrants in the LME down by over 11,000 tonnes today. That’s a drop from 51,282 tonnes in the live warrants total to 29,130 tonnes in just two days. The cancelld warrants total now stands at 58,002 tonnes.
The last time there was a significant shift from the live warrants side to the cancelled warrants total the cancelled warrants were gradually drawn down over the following 7 to 10 days. Expect the same thing to happen again.
LME stock will now depend on the rate of replenishment on the live warrants side. If that fails to happen in any significant way I’d expect the cupboard to be empty before the end of November at the latest.
I’m not convinced this is simply down to somebody trying to manipulate the market in a similar way to the way it was tried in the silver and copper markets several years ago. This is all happening, IMO, in expectation of the coming EV boom.
We shall see soon enough.
CTA Position Tracker — Nickel
CTA Positioning Estimate is now at 50%
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy
Nickel in the LME down again today by 3,894 tonnes. That should mostly, if not all, come off the cancelled warrants total.
Live warrants crept up yesterday to 29,910 tonnes but the amount of live warrants in the LME has almost halved since the start of the month. Its a very strtange market indeed.