LME data week from November 4 to 8
Live Warrants started the week at 30.738 and ended at 36.318, Cancelled Warrants started the week at 35.568 and ended at 29.754.
Opening Stocks are now at 66.072 - 234
It looks very much like nickel is heading sub $7/lb. LME stock continues to drop but so does the price.
The rise to over $8/lb seems to have been in anticipation of moves by the Indonesia government to bring forward the ore export ban. Now that’s all settled and the ban confirmed for January 2020 the pressure if off. It seems the Chinese have managed to build for themeselves quite a stock pile of high grade Indonesian ore (they did similar the last time). That should keep the Chinese domestic NPI producers going for several months.
The nickel price could remain sub $7/lb for several months.
Interesting that Ramu is the template being used by Tsingshan and others for their proposed HPAL plants at Morowali Industrial Park in Sulawesi. That should be interesting.
This is interesting. If the Chinese proceed with cutting subsidies even further it could herald a collapse in demand for EVs in that country.
China might be cutting subsidies for electric car buyers even further, another blow for the world’s most dominant — but noticeably flagging — EV market.
According to Bloomberg sources, Chinese regulators are discussing the idea “but are holding off on a decision until they weigh car sales data over the coming months”.
China has been subsidising EV purchases since 2009 to build the sector, but these are being rolled back to encourage automakers to stand on their own two feet.
The problem is that the last time the government cut subsidies, earlier this year, it sparked the country’s first drop in EV sales. This impacts the entire battery metals supply chain, as well as wider market sentiment.
And yet global automakers, playing the long game, are spending a lot of money to tap this massive market. Last week, VW celebrated pre-production at its first Chinese plant by rolling the very first China-specific all-electric Volkswagen ID off the production line in Shanghai.
The start of series production is scheduled for October 2020, VW says.
“The Volkswagen Group projects a total volume of 22 million all-electric cars worldwide by 2028, with more than 50 per cent of that from China,” Dr Herbert Diess, chairman of the board of management of Volkswagen AG, said.
“The country plays a crucial part in our electrification strategy, which will pave the way to Volkswagen’s goal of becoming net carbon-neutral by 2050.”
Even Toyota, an EV laggard, has just announced a 50-50 JV with Chinese electrification leader BYD — short for Build Your Dreams — to develop battery electric vehicles for the Chinese market.
Frontrunner Tesla has already constructed a $US2 billion ($2.9 billion) factory in Shanghai, its first manufacturing facility outside the US, where it hopes to start production by the end of the year.
In its Q3 report, Tesla said that Gigafactory Shanghai was built in 10 months and is ready for production. It was also “~65 per cent less expensive (capex per unit of capacity) to build than our Model 3 production system in the US”.
“China is by far the largest market for mid-sized premium sedans,” Tesla told investors.
“With Model 3 priced on par with gasoline powered mid-sized sedans (even before gas savings and other benefits), we believe China could become the biggest market for Model 3.”
Its difficult to know what this prediction is suggesting. If the numbers are purely BEVs then the 2018 prediction for 2020 of 6.9m BEV’s worldwide may be close.
At the end of 2019 its predicted that the global EV fleet will be in the region of 7.9m. By the end of 2020 it should be over 11.5m or an additional 3.6m. About 60% of the total will be pure BEV’s which makes OPEC’s 2018 estimate for 2020 of 6.9m fairly close.
I suspect they’ll be revising their estimates fairly regularly from here on.
This is worth taking in.
I’m not sure many people have heard of Evergrande but their plans seem quite ambitious.