SMM News: nickel point of view: recently Russia nickel import window opened, Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt continued to increase, Indonesian ports to resume nickel mine exports, Indonesia nickel iron production progress accelerated, Greenmei Indonesia wet nickel plant production progress has made new progress, coupled with the demand end of ternary batteries and stainless steel fatigue, stainless steel prices continue to decline, nickel prices under pressure weak operation. Unless the supply of other major nickel producers (the Philippines, New Caledonia, etc.) shrinks again in the fourth quarter, it is difficult to open up the upward space for nickel prices in the fourth quarter. In the face of weak demand, it is necessary to guard against the risk of early increment on the supply side. The current price may still be in the stage of adjustment and decline. In the middle line, there is still a supply gap in nickel mines in the first quarter of next year. Before the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, the supply of nickel mines is tight, and refined nickel itself is stable in supply and increased in demand. supported by low inventories, nickel prices may remain strong in the first half of next year, but refined nickel may face an increase in supply and a decline in demand after the second half of next year. Therefore, in the middle line, unless the supply-side increment is ahead of schedule (risk factors), the nickel price will be treated as a big correction before the first half of 2020, and the nickel supply and demand side may turn empty after the second half of 2020; in the short term, the upward motivation of nickel price in the fourth quarter of 2019 is insufficient, and the weak demand is dragged down, and nickel price may still be in the stage of adjustment and decline.
Philippine miners are likely to increase nickel production by next year, although their production capacity is limited by a number of factors, including mining restrictions imposed by the government.
The nickel ore shipped by the Philippines to China is a substitute for Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, but of lower grade.
The Philippines shipped 4.39 million tons of nickel ore to China in September, a 13-month high.
LME data week from November 11 to 15
Live Warrants started the week at 36.318 (54,97%) and ended at 38.022 (58,9%) Cancelled Warrants started the week at 29.754 (45,03%) and ended at 26.544 (41,1%).
Opening Stocks are now at 64.566 - 1.506
There’s a new presentation from Tony Seba. There’s not an awful lot that’s new but it is a much shorter and less rambling presentation than some of his previous ones. Worth half an hour of your time.
“Despite this, S&P Global believes that nickel will be one of the best performing commodities going forward.”
“Best performing” doesn’t mean to say it will go up but at least its going to be “best performing” which is at least something.
“Today’s Electric Car Batteries Will Be Tomorrow’s E-Waste Crisis”
I think that unlikely given the second life a car battery can have (static power storage) and the fact that all the metals in a lithium ion battery are 100% recyclable. The 40kg. of nickel in a typical Tesla model 3 is worth, at today’s price, $600. That’s todays price. Its only going to go up once the whole EV thing takes off.