This has probably been posted already. If not:-
Thanks to PhantomProfit over on the LSE BB for posting the link.
18 November 2019
CTA Position Tracker
CTA Positioning Estimate is now at 34%
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy
"Nornickel, a Russian mining giant, said Monday it expects the global nickel market to be short of 28000 tons in 2020.
The company said it expected a shortage of 57000 tons in the global nickel market this year.
The company said it expected demand for high-grade nickel to increase in Europe as local stainless steel producers had adjusted the raw material structure.
The company also said it expected demand for nickel in the automotive battery industry to increase as there was expected to be a structural gap between supply and demand in the global nickel market after 2020.
NORILSK also said it was sceptical about the idea that Indonesia’s new nickel and iron production would be enough to meet long-term demand."
Nickel fell to $14525 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME) (LME), down more than 19 per cent from its high in early September and close to the 20 per cent decline defined by the prevailing bear market, SMM11 reported on March 20.
Indonesia’s unexpected decision to ban nickel ore exports ahead of time sparked fears of a tightening global supply of nickel, which hit a high. The current decline has brought the price of nickel closer to the current price of the original mine. In recent weeks, Indonesian miners have ramped up exports ahead of the ban, and nickel prices have plummeted.
As nickel inventories in Shanghai rose and LME stocks stabilized, concerns about nickel supply were quickly replaced by concerns about its deteriorating demand prospects. With nickel prices down 13 per cent so far in November, the biggest one-month fall in five years, short-term technology traders have been fuelling the decline, adding to bullish pressure on nickel bulls who have been betting that the market will move towards a long-term scarcity of nickel.
"so far, investors have been a little nervous about nickel trading, but the momentum is growing," BMO CapitalMarkets Ltd. said. Colin Hamilton, managing director of commodities research, said by phone from London. "prices did need to be stable before, and to my surprise, it happened so fast, but that’s how the nickel market works."