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LME Nickel Stocks

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#302

Nuno

I’ve read most of your posts and links. The issue is summed up in one of the articles:-

“…we’re able to offer better performance at a lower cost while not sacrificing recharge, while we’re not sacrificing power, we’re not sacrificing safety.”

Any new chemistry will have to demonstrate that it can hit all three of these requirements and that’s not going to be easy. Improvements in technology have a habit of developing and accelerating much faster than people either think or expect. The issue for us is whether these developments include nickel or not.

The really big unknown, of course, is the speed with which EVs will be adopted. Even if a new chemistry reduces the amount of nickel and cobalt used and therefore cost the likely consequence of that (EVs achieving cost parity with ICE sooner than expected) the uptake of EVs will be faster.

We have so many variables here that its difficult, if not impossible, to form a clear picture of not only what is happening but of what is possible.

TDT :sunglasses:


#303

Nuno

Came across this:-

“Johnson Matthey’s Chief Technology Officer Alan Nelson told Reuters that while the group was monitoring various technologies, it was not developing low nickel, manganese-rich cathode materials because of “several key challenges to commercialization” including fading voltage over charge cycles.”

I don’t see things changing dramatically in the near term. Nickel might get reduced or even squeezed out altogether eventually but that’s some way off in my opinion.

TDT :sunglasses:


#304

Thanks TDT, John Peterson has the same opinion. After all the BASF stocks had fallen 20%
They need good news for the market, I agree with you, tech without Nickel is not for the present, maybe in the future.
New tech, usually takes 10, 12 years to go in the market.


#305

#306

https://www.world-bureau.com/readnews.asp?id=65


#307

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3846018/Search-results/Electric-vehicles-to-grow-battery-market-tenfold-by-2025-UBS-says.html

Consumption of nickel for batteries would total 665,000 tonnes in 2025, compared with 60,000 tonnes currently, according to the bank. This would push total nickel use to 3.1 million tpy from 2.2 million tpy.


#308

665,000 tonnes in 2025? That’s still on the low side IMO. Double that figure and you’re getting close.

At a modest 45% year on year uptake from here on you would end up with 24m new EVs being bought in 2025. Assuming 50kg of nickel per EV that works out at 1.2m tonnes of nickel in that year alone.

TDT


#309

TDT

I think we have to divide the market share, because there will be no only EV, we are going to have more PHEV .

I suppose that the needs pointed out by UBS, whether for pure EVs


#310

Nuno

In all markets there is a shift from HEV’s and PHEV’s to pure BEV’s. I’d expect the proportion of BEV’s in the overall total of EV’s sold in 2025 to be at least 80%+. At the same time I would expect to see more 8:1:1 batteries in BEV’s by this date. Assuming 50kg. of nickel per EV is therefore likely to be on the low side. In short assuming only 50kg. of nickel in 1.2m EVs assumes some EV’s will be HEV’s, PHEV’s and some might even have batteries that do not contain any nickel.

I think its just a matter of time before governments bring in legislation to restrict HEV’s and PHEV’s. After all both still have internal combustion engines and both still spew out green house gases. By 2025 the batteries in BEV’s will make not buying an HEV or a PHEV a no brainer IMO.

TDT :sunglasses:


#311

This might give the price of nickel a short term boost:-

Outlook:
The good side of the story for nickel comes from the fact that Brazil court has ordered Vale SA, one of the country’s biggest companies to stop its mining operations in the Northern State of Para. The mining unit accounts for some 10 percent of Vale’s total nickel production. Vale is one of the world’s largest producers of the metal.

If it doesn’t boost the price it might deplete stocks in the LME a little.

TDT :sunglasses:


#312

Trump in his outrageous madness…


#313

CO2 emissions increased for the first time in four years
According to the latest UN report on climate change, the level of CO2 emissions increased in 2017 for the first time in four years. UN warns that countries must triple their efforts to meet the targets set in the Paris Agreement.

https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018


#314


#315

#316

These guys get paid huge salaries for saying what is blindingly obvious!!!

An EV being more expensive than an ICE is not going to deter people from buying EVs. They are, after all, cheaper to both run and maintain. Furthermore if the only issue was price then nobody would buy a BMW 7 series they’d opt for a KIA at one fifth of the price.

You sometime have to wonder how these guys get these top level highly paid jobs.

TDT


#317

#318

#319

China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in November was recorded at 50, below the forecast print of 50.2, according to the latest statistics released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

The 50-point mark is considered neutral territory, indicating no growth or contraction in activity. A reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below indicates contraction.

China’s non-manufacturing PMI for the same period dipped to 53.4 from 53.9 the previous month, indicating that growth in China’s service sector moderated in November, but remained at solid levels

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3846780/Search-results/LIVE-FUTURES-REPORT-3011-Weak-Chinese-economic-data-caps-SHFE-base-metals-strength-in-nickel.html


#320

The past six months, in particular, has been a shocker for the nickel price, with earlier price gains wiped out with a retreat from $US7/lb down to $US4.90/lb this week.

The price is now just ahead of last (calendar) year’s average of $4.73/lb. All hope that the $US10.36/lb prices of 2011 were on the way thanks to projections of supply deficit are lost, so you might think.

But Deutsche and others reckon this is a temporary setback for nickel caused by trade war-related slowdown in demand from what is currently the dominant customer, the stainless steel sector.

The argument goes that a whole new wall of demand is coming from the lithium-ion battery sector as the electric vehicle and renewable energy storage revolution gathers pace.

In a report earlier this month, Deutsche said nickel was headed for a “massive’’ supply shortage in the next three years. It went further to suggest demand from lithium-ion batteries (where increased nickel use equals greater energy density) would outstrip stainless steel by 2025.

Take all that in and it might be time to have a second look at the juniors with a clear pathway to production well before 2025 is upon us as rest assured, the nickel price will run hard ahead of time if Deutsche and others are right.


#321