Interesting LME stock figures this morning. Canceled warrants are at their highest since August last year and live warrants are continuing to fall. Although total stock in the LME has risen in recent days I have a feeling its going to start falling again before long. We shall see soon enough.
Figures just out, nickel stock in the LME down by 1,026 tonnes. Not as big a drop as I’d hoped but in the right direction.
NICKEL STOCKS: At 202,032 tonnes inventories of nickel in
LME-registered warehouses are down from around 370,000 tonnes at
the start of 2018 and near the lowest since 2013. MNISTX-TOTAL
SPREADS: Suggesting that availability of nearby metal is
tightening, the discount of cash nickel compared to the three
month contract has shrunk from around $95 a tonne in July to
around $60. MNI0-3
WARRANTS: One entity holds between 50 and 79 percent of LME
nickel warrants, increasing concerns over short supplies.
We could be on for a rocket up in the nickel price at some point in the very near future.
I guess for every bullish story there’s a bearish one.
The battery sector accounted for 124,000t of consumption last year, and while overall nickel demand is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5pc to 2025, demand from the battery sector is estimated to climb at a CAGR of 18pc over the same period
With this CAGR, in 2025 we will need 395 000 TN, correct?
18% CAGR is, in my opinion, far too low.
This sort of thing must make the Chinese very nervous.
I’ve worked in Indonesia and they’re not very accepting of people from other south-east Asian countries, not only China.
We have already talked about this risk, but is good to remember
Cobalt has gone from $45/lb to just over $16/lb. in about 9 months. I seems to me that the cost of the raw materials is the bogeyman that’s constantly being flagged up but so far seems to be having no impact.
Time will tell.
“The International Energy Agency doubled its 2030 forecast from 23 million to 58 million”
Do you have any information about this?
No I don’t.
I reckon 58m EVs being sold worldwide in 2030 is out by about 5 years. I expect we will see that number being bought in 2025.
Growth in stainless steel production from Indonesia and China, as well as demand from electric vehicle batteries will lead to new nickel demand. This supports our expectation of continuing physical deficits in nickel, despite global growth uncertainty, with CRU forecasting a deficit of 34,000 tonnes in 2019 and 44,000 tonnes in 2020.
This is not going to help confidence.
All these Chinese companies investing billions in Sulawesi must look at the creeping resource nationalism in Indonesia and wonder when its going to be their turn.