LME Nickel Stocks



They’re still pumping in billions though.

You’ve got to be impressed by the speed and efficiency of Tsingshan.

“Having broken ground in early 2018, and now having already commenced production, Hengjaya Nickel is further evidence of Tsingshan’s industry-leading ability to deliver a project in record time and a testament to their commitment, professionalism and work ethic.”

Although its Tsingshan’s proposed HPAL plant in Indonesia that’s the one to watch. They say they can do it quickly and cheaply and you wouldn’t want to bet against them given their track record.

TDT :sunglasses:


That’s bad news, anyway in 2018 we used 124 Ton nickel Class 1 in batteries, if the CAGR is correct (18%) in 2025 we will need more 395 Ton.
The penetration rate of the EVs is fundamental to this equation.
Do not forget that the Tsingshan project is viable at $ 14,000 Ton, according to CRU.


“Do not forget that the Tsingshan project is viable at $ 14,000 Ton(ne), according to CRU.”

That assumes they can build a 50k/annum plant for $700m which most people think is highly unlikely.

Its this sort of thing that worries me.

“As of June (2017), however, around half of Indonesia’s newly constructed nickel smelters were shuttered as a result of the market’s shaky prices.”

It’s an old article from 2017 but it still makes you wonder just how much shuttered spare capacity there might be out there just waiting to fire up again once prices permit.

18% CAGR is hopelessly light IMO.

TDT :sunglasses:


Regarding Vale, and the recent price hike of Nickel, it is fundamentally due to the risk of being able to delay its investments in Nickel.

Remember that in December, Vale wanted to invest 500 million in its mine in New Caledonia.

Now some Vale dams are under surveillance, and the company plans to rebuild some of them.

Another problem is the deceleration of Chinese economic growth


The principal drivers in the market are not supply and demand but fear and greed and there’s a lot of both fear and greed around at the moment.

TDT :sunglasses:







This was the stand out comment in that last article.

“Nickel stocks are continuing to decline in the LME’s warehouses, yet this is nothing new. Nickel production is likely to be expanded considerably this year. We see no justification for the (price) surge,” said Commerzbank in a note.

and this:-

“We don’t find it credible. (Vale) do have one asset in Brazil but most of their nickel assets are outside the country and the process of (producing) nickel versus iron ore is not similar,” said Vivienne Lloyd, analyst at Macquarie.

In the long term the dam disaster might impact their investment decisions in nickel but in the immediate term it seems the recent price movements have had more to do with fear/greed than anything else.

TDT :sunglasses:





this is an interesting development.

“German chemical giant BASF discovered late last year that by upping the amount of manganese and using much less nickel and cobalt it can slash the cost of an electric car battery by way more than half.”

“BASF is developing a battery chemistry that comprises 70 per cent manganese, 20 per cent nickel and less than 5 per cent cobalt.”

TDT :sunglasses:




We already had a conversation about BASF, and you answer this:

"TrickyDickyTwoNov '18


Came across this:-

“Johnson Matthey’s Chief Technology Officer Alan Nelson told Reuters that while the group was monitoring various technologies, it was not developing low nickel, manganese-rich cathode materials because of “several key challenges to commercialization” including fading voltage over charge cycles.”

BASF makes low-nickel wager amid scramble for battery metals
German chemicals giant BASF is betting on a new recipe for electric car batteries which stretches the time between charges while cutting …

I don’t see things changing dramatically in the near term. Nickel might get reduced or even squeezed out altogether eventually but that’s some way off in my opinion.


Are any news about that???





TDT :sunglasses: