Menu
Close

LME Nickel Stocks

lse:amc

#503

This is old but it contains some useful information for those not fully up to speed on the Tsingshan/HPAL issue.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-29/battery-metal-bulls-fear-china-s-great-disrupter-to-curb-nickel

One thing to note is the suggestion that the current Tsingshan proposal requires a nickel price of $14,000/tonne to be viable which is about $6.35/lb. That seems very much like a bottom line price which would, in my opinion, suggest at least 10% if not 20% on top of that for the market to feel comfortable. That’s $7.00/lb. to $7.65/lb. I think Amur would be more than happy with a nickel price in that range.

You wouldn’t bet against Tsingshan being successful but at the same time you shouldn’t under estimate the difficulty of the challenge they face, the speed with which demand for nickel is developing and the political risks involved building a facility in a country as unpredictable as Indonesia.

TDT :sunglasses:


#504

More or less as we thought.

“Vale concerns continue to lend an element of support to nickel, not in the sense that the company’s nickel supply is in any way imperilled, but more on concern about the fines and operational restrictions that could be imposed on the company by the Brazilian government”

TDT :sunglasses:


#505

This is interesting.

“Mr Harjanto said construction on an ambitious USD 4 billion (RM16.3 billion) lithium battery plant on the island of Sulawesi will be finished in 16 months. The Morowali site currently has 20 nickel ore processing facilities that feed 1.5 million tonnes of nickel pig iron a year into a three-million tonne-per-year stainless steel mill.”

TDT :sunglasses:


#506

It looks like Weda Bay on Halmahera Island, North Maluku, is going to be just as big as Morowali on Sulawesi.

http://www.eramet.com/en/projects/weda-bay-nickel-indonesia

Once finished the plant(s) will have a nameplate of 65,000 per annum producing nickel ferroalloy based on a pyrometallurgical process. They also state:-

“…Weda Bay Industrial Area its expecting will attract investors to build downstream processing facilities including nickel sulfate…”

Tsingshan is also involved. Makes you wonder, are they hedging their bets just in case the HPAL project in Sulawesi doesn’t turn out to be as simple, trouble free and cost efficient as they are expecting/hope.

TDT :sunglasses:


#507

#508

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/020719-vale-indonesia-sees-2019-nickel-output-at-74000-75000-mt-steady-from-last-year


#509

#510

#511

https://www.ft.com/content/e05d8582-2aef-11e9-88a4-c32129756dd8


#512

#513

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/sp-angel/30601/today-s-market-view---battery-adoption-concerns-growing-from-nickel-market-tightness-30601.html

Nickel US$ 12,420/t vs US$12,520/t yesterday

Supply tightness is creating growing anxiety as battery metal consumers look to draw greater volumes in expanding capacity, according to the latest assessment of Bloomberg NEF. “Nickel is now the metal creating the most concern in the battery manufacturing community”, James Frith adds.
Cathode market leader Umicore SA also add supply constraints could push nickel prices up to as much as $20,000-$25,000/t.
“None of these big shortages have yet come to pass and it’s hard to imagine an industry which is investing tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars transitioning to EVs being stopped by a few billion shortfall in nickel mining investment,” BNEF analyst Logan Goldie-Scot reports.
While supply tightness isn’t expected to derail the growing EV sector, there could be delays in the widespread adoption of high nickel chemistries such as NMC (811) – cathode composed on 80% nickel, 10% manganese and 10% cobalt.
Such a move would slow the adoption of higher energy density batteries, possibly slowing battery cost reductions, he added.


#514

#515

#516

#517

Rewriting Moores and being true "Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is now tracking 70 lithium ion battery megafactories underconstruction across four continents, 46 of which are based in China with only five currently planned for the US When I gave my last testimony in October 2017, the global total was at17. "

Can you imagine the amount of raw materials that will be needed?

Being the nickel Stocks in the LME, just above 200,000Tn, to divide all these stocks by the new magafactories, would be crazy.

Taking the Reuters news from October 19, 2018 “Flow of LME nickel to hidden storage dents bull story”, and if it is true that ,there are 465,000 Tn hidden storage …

To summarize, we need Tsingshan Holding Group’s project to invest $ 700 million in an Indonesian project to produce battery-grade nickel-metal, because nickel and raw material needs are huge.


#518

#519

#520

"The market to watch is not so much the ebb and flow of nickel and vanadium prices, it’s how are electric vehicle sales are going because that’s the end market.

“And if that really starts to take off, metal prices will follow.”

That might be stating the blindingly obvious but it needs to be said.

TDT :sunglasses:


#521

In The Year 2030…

“China closely reflects the conditions of the global auto market and is likely to impact the demand for gasoline over the next 10-20 years. This has been reported as a possible devastating hit to the oil industry due to the anticipated decline in future demand for oil and gasoline. But, based on the above figures, it is estimated that the increased demand for EVs as opposed to gasoline powered autos may reduce oil consumption by approximately 5 million barrels per day - or 5 percent of the daily production. In 2017-18, EVs displaced only about 50,000 barrels of the 100 million per day global demand, according to IHS.”

Way off the mark yet again. Even if EV adoption only experiences a CAGR of 50% by 2030 oil demand will fall by 10m barrels. EV adoption is likely to average more than 50% going forward. If TAAS becomes as pervasive as predicted with 20% of the world’s fleet of cars doing 80% of the miles travelled oil consumption will fall even further. TAAS vehicles will be EVs becuase it doesn’t make economic sense to be anything else.

TDT :sunglasses:


#522

Some interesting stats in this McKinsey report.

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Oil%20and%20Gas/Our%20Insights/Global%20Energy%20Perspective%202019/McKinsey-Energy-Insights-Global-Energy-Perspective-2019_Reference-Case-Summary.ashx

Still far too conservative IMO.

TDT :sunglasses: