LME Nickel Stocks



“It looks to me like we might see the decline slow at best, reverse at worst, in the weeks to come.”

Or not.

When I put that post up yesterday the live and canceled warrants totals for Friday weren’t avilable. They are now and lo and behold if they haven’t gone and done the exact opposite of what I was predicting yesterday. Live warrants have gone down by almost 3,000 tonnes and canceled warrants up by just under 2,800 tonnes.

TDT :sunglasses:


Will the stock declines be smaller?



The fairly large transfer over from live to cancelled warrants suggests not. That would seem to imply that draw down next week will not be smaller. We shall see soon enough.

The large uptake of NEVs in China for the month of March at almost 120k is encouraging.

TDT :sunglasses:


Trump will need to turbo charge the American economy if he is going to stand any chance of a second term. The next presidential election in the USA is just over 18 months away. Trump will stop at nothing to ensure that he isn’t the first one term president since Jimmy Carter.

It was James Carville, Clinton’s election strategist back in 1992, who coined the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid”. That is just as true today as it was back then and Trump knows that. I would be surprised if there isn’t a trade deal between China and the USA within the next few months. Time for the effect to kick in before election day.

TDT :sunglasses:


The US economy is not bad, GDP has been revised upwards and the unemployment rate is at a minimum.

The promises that Trump made to the infrastructure, do not go forward



I didn’t say the American economy was bad. What I said was Trump will need to turbo charge the American economy.

The bigger the feel good factor the more likely it is people will vote him in again. He’s an immensely unpopular president with a significant number of voters. He didn’t win the popular vote the last time so his margin for error is slim. He will be looking to boost the economy as much as he possibly can to increase his chances.

TDT :sunglasses:








Interesting article. Does this increase the likelihood of a bifurcation in the market with class 1 finally splitting off and going its own separate way? I suspect the proprtion of class 1 going in to making stainless steel will have to fall to a relatively small percentage of the overall market before that happens.

Still some way off if ever IMO.

TDT :sunglasses:





“Here’s the issue for lithium-ion: while not inherently dangerous, when handled incorrectly, a potential hazard can occur.”

No shit Sherlock. And if you handle, petrol or diesel or hydrogen, or coal, or gas incorrectly!!!

What a stupid article.

TDT :sunglasses:



Bad news for high-priced miners’s-nickel-market-to-flip-into-supply-surplus-in-2019/


This is the interesting bit.

“Stainless steel accounts for about 80% of primary nickel consumption in 2018-2019.”

“NPI is estimated to account for 53% of raw materials for stainless steel in 2019, up from 45% in 2018, while the proportion of refined nickel will likely fall from 19% to 15%.”

TDT :sunglasses: