LME Nickel Stocks



I presume “Primearth EV Energy” is PEVE in the gantt chart? If so then their YoY increase is only 8%. That’s pretty poor when compared to the other battery manufacturers.

TDT :sunglasses:


"We do not want to go from dependence on oil and troubles in the Middle East to dependence on China for batteries,"



I think it clarifies Toyota’s point of view.



China-United States: New Caledonia’s nickel exports in the face of the trade war
China is the largest importer of nickel in New Caledonia. Chinese stainless steels are exported all over the world and first in the United States. Trade tensions have not slowed New Caledonian exports, but prices are falling.

© Johannes Eisele (AFP)
By Alain Jeannin
Posted on 11/05/2019 at 01:09, updated on 11/05/2019 at 02:35
For the moment, Caledonian ferronickel exports to China continue to grow. According to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG), they are up 28.2% for the first two months of 2019 compared to the same period of 2018. New Caledonia exported 27,835 tonnes of ferronickel against 21,727 tons a year earlier. Also towards China, exports of New Caledonian ore were 259,102 tons against 203,028 tons, an increase of 27,3%. (Source INSG World Nickel Statistics April 2019)

Commercial War
On Friday morning, taxes on $ 200 billion of Chinese products went from 10% to 25%. But talks are continuing between the two countries in Washington. After a fall of nearly 8% over a month, the price of nickel clings to the hope of an agreement. The deadline for Donald Trump’s ultimatum was passed without any agreement being reached on the first day of negotiations between the US and Chinese delegations. It was 00:01, in Washington, 6:01 in Paris, 15:01 in Noumea when the threat to go from 10% to 25% customs duties on 178 billion euros of Chinese products came into effect. Beijing reacted by mentioning retaliatory measures, whose content is not yet known. A new escalation, in this conflict almost two years old.

Do not panic on the London market
After a decline of 2.23% in the space of five days on the London Metal Exchange, the nickel is granted, Friday night, a small start. Some operators cling to the announcement of advances between the two camps. Both parties still have a few weeks of further discussions to reach a compromise. But, the stakes are enormous and the climate tense. For the metal furniture sector alone, tariffs on Chinese products entering the United States will increase by 3.65 billion euros, 17 billion euros for telecommunications equipment, 11 billion euros for electronic components, 2 billion euros for auto parts, according to sources from the US International Trade Commission (ITC) published by the BBC. Products that contain many precious or industrial metals. It should also be remembered that Donald Trump stirred the threat of taxing all Chinese products that have not yet been affected by the trade war. Then would be concerned phones and laptops for a total of 74 billion euros. “Trade tensions are the main driver of the London metals market,” said Liz Grant,
broker at Sucden.

Nickel drifts along the water
From their offices, just steps from the Thames, financial analysts in the City of London sometimes use metaphors inspired by the river that flows through the UK capital: "The price of nickel has drifted over the water and "Marex Spectron analyst Alastair Munro from the London Metal Exchange (LME) desk. The British analyst also sees the effect of an announcement by the Institute for Research on Nickel (INSG) that the deficit this year is only 84,000 tons against 146,000 tons last year. The investors in the metals market are therefore playing with fear. Thus, they noted that the Japanese company Sumitomo, shareholder of the Ambatovy Nickel complex in Madagascar, said it could lose a lot of money, nearly 138 million euros, in the year 2019.
© London Metal Exchange
© London Metal Exchange

Collateral effects
Nickel prices had fallen to 11,710 dollars per ton, Thursday late afternoon, suffering the effects of collateral tensions between the United States and China. The metal fell back to its course last January 19th. He was also penalized by a publication of the LME Asia office announcing that the demand for nickel for electric vehicle batteries should not increase before 2020-2025.

Positive news? Nickel production in the Asia-Pacific region may be temporarily contained due to Indonesia’s decision to revoke export permits for five nickel miners: PT Surya Saga Utama, PT Genba, PT Cahaya Makmur, PT Lobindo Nusa Persada and PT Integra Mining Nusantara. "The increase in supply


“The British analyst also sees the effect of an announcement by the Institute for Research on Nickel (INSG) that the deficit this year is only 84,000 tons against 146,000 tons last year.”

The LME started the year with 207,924 tonnes. The current total is 169,578. Stocks have therefore fallen 38,346 tonnes in 18.5 weeks. If the same depletion rate continues for the rest of the year the total for 2019 will be 107,783 tonnes or about 25% more than the deficit INSG is predicting.

TDT :sunglasses:


LME stocks at 10/05/2019 tonnes

Live warrants - 100,104
Cancelled warrants - 69,474 tonnes
Total - 169,578 tonnes

According to a recent Nornickel report.

“Though the level of exchange stocks is far below the peak levels of 2015 of 90 days of consumption, the current stock level is still above the critical level of ~2 weeks.”

If we assume annual demand to be 2.32m tonnes a year, Nornickel’s figure for 2018, then 2 weeks stock would be approximately 89,000 tonnes. What is not clear is does this figure relate to the total amount of nickel in the exchange, 169,578 tonnes, or only the nickel that’s available the live warrants total 100,104 tonnes. If it’s the latter then the critical level, according to Nornickel, is immanent.

TDT :sunglasses:




I presume the ALISE battery replaces the electrolyte in a traditional lithium ion battery with lithium sulphur? What about the cathode and the anode? What will they be made from?

TDT :sunglasses:



I presume you underlined _“predicted tight supply of nickel and potentially cobalt”_in the McKinsey report?

“Recycling can make sense if the battery electrodes contain highly valued metals such as cobalt and nickel, because there could be a sufficient gap between the procurement and recycling cost, especially given the predicted tight supply of nickel and potentially cobalt in the 2020s.”

TDT :sunglasses:


This is our doubt.


The prices of the raw materials will be decisive for the recycling.



There’s still an awful lot of uncertainty over when 811 will be rolled out, how much of the market it will take and how quickly. If it does go mainstream then the cost and the energy denisty would put the driving range between re-charging and the cost of the car on a par with if not better than an ICE equivalent.

Where does the incentive come from to develop a better cheaper battery once that mileston has been achieved?

TDT :sunglasses:



The key components
A Lithium Metal anode
A Sulfur-based cathode
A safe electrolyte protecting the lithium metal
A state of the art separator