- Copper prices would be 5% to 15% higher without the U.S.-China trade war, the chairman for Chile’s Antofagasta Plc told a Chilean newspaper on Sunday.emphasized text
Why LME prices, do not have this premium?
Class I material used in stainless steel, powders and for smelting, for example, averaged a premium of $1,320 per tonne
“Why LME prices, do not have this premium?”
The LME price is the price for the nickel market not for class 1 nickel. This is the reason why there has been a lot of talk recently about the market splitting into two even more so now that the downward pressure from class 2 on price seems to be increasing.
This award is frequent, had already read in other publications.
The reason for not having two different contracts is the lack of liquidity, according to LME
“lack of liquidity”
That doesn’t seem credible to me. Its a 2.3m tonnes market due to rise to over 3.0m tonnes by 2025 at the latest with two different forms of nickel both pulling in different directions. Something has to give especialy if Trump’s trade war continues to dampen demanad for stainless steel.
I was talking about Class 1 Nickel, not all nickel.
Nickel class 1 market is only 700,000 tons, and demand in 2018 for batteries was according to NORNICKEL’s “demand for nickel in batteries last year: primary nickel use in batteries increased by 42% to 134 kt.”
This is equivalent to 19% of the nickel class 1 market and 5.5% of the global nickel market, based on the fact that 2018 production 2,400,000 tons
“While the market is already operating at different prices, the LME can not make two separate contracts while liquidity is low.
The real “adventure” for nickel class 1 is in 2020/2022 …”
Look at the way the price of nickel is going and stocks in the LME are going. We are seeing divergence within a market that is essentially in conflict. Low liquidity or not the market will have to split. The pressure to do so will become even more intense the further the price of nickel falls and the stocks within the LME fall.
A long trade war, can expose the weaknesses of more indebted economies and the desire not to depend on the dollar to trade.
Abusive protectionism, sanctions, and the dollar’s dominance can shed a growing wave of discord.
China does not govern for the elections, China has and always had long-term vision, as an investor should have.