LME Nickel Stocks



A battery without cobalt or nickel!

As long as its at least 15 years away I’m fine with that.

TDT :sunglasses:


Electric cars: Current trends make for a shocking change

TDT :sunglasses:


Interesting increase in EV sales in Europe the first Q 2019 over 1st. Q 2018. Up by approximately 80%. This is BEV’s only, no HEV’s or PHEV’s so pretty impressive. A lot of this will be down to the Tesla Model 3 being made available the 1st. Q 2019. The next quarters figures will tell us if this increase is going to continue.

TDT :sunglasses:


Unfortunately TDT when a stock struggles (the BB goes very quiet for a start) its tradeability goes out of the window - there was a time when I held reasonable sized tranches of AMC (I would be horribly down IF I had held on!) Anyway lets hope AMC can break out of its torpor and the SP look a bit brighter - my trading days are behind me (for quite some time now!), but its interestng to pop into the BB occassionally. AR







Hi Andy

“I would be horribly down IF I had held on!”

I guess it all depends on your average and whether you’re brave enough to trade. I don’t do the latter and the former is in the red but not by so much that it gives me sleepless nights. Its just a waiting game this one or a least I hope it is. Nothing is certain in life.

TDT :sunglasses:



I don’t get Glencore’s figures for nickel going forward.

First off is the 2018 figure of 60,000 tonnes correct? When they say “Contained nickel in EVs” does this exclude HEVs and PHEVs? Does it only refer to BEVs? The Nornickel figure for 2018 is considerably higher at 134,000 tonnes. Does the discrepancy come from what is included in the term EV?

The Glencore prediction going forward seems way off as well. They predict 110,000 tonnes in 2020 but that’s very much at odds with the sorts of CAGR’s we have seen to date.

CAGR – 40%
2018 - 60,000
2019 – 84,000
2020 – 117,600
2021 – 164,640
2022 – 230,496
2023 – 322,694
2024 – 451,771
2025 – 632,480

The CAGR for EVs from 2014 to 2018 has been running at an average of just over 58%. The CAGR for 2018/19 looks set to be at least 55% but more than likely a good bit higher.

CAGR – 45%
2018 - 60,000
2019 – 87,000
2020 – 126,150
2021 – 182,817.5
2022 – 265,130
2023 – 384,583.5
2024 – 557,646
2025 – 808,587

CAGR – 50%
2018 - 60,000
2019 - 90,000
2020 – 135,000
2021 – 202,500
2022 – 303,750
2023 – 455,625
2024 – 683,437
2025 – 1,025,156.25

CAGR – 55%
2018 - 60,000
2019 – 93,000
2020 – 144,150
2021 – 223,432.5
2022 – 346,320
2023 – 536,796
2024 – 832,034
2025 – 1,289,653

Assuming the CARG for EVs will mirror the CAGR for nickel going into EV batteries the figures produced by Glencore seem pessimistic to say the least. Furthermore when you consider all the new battery factories being built and new EV models planned you would have to assume everything is going to accelerate.

I forgot to add as the years pass the amount of nickel in batteries is set to increase. Furthermore recent changes in Chinese subsidies has resulted in a move away from LCO, LMO and LFP batteries which contain virtually no nickel to NMC batteries. If you were to substitute all of today’s batteries with NMC 811 you would be doubling nickel use over night. 400,000 tonnes of nickel going into EVs in 2025 seems to me to be far too low.

TDT :sunglasses:


I agree


the battery strategy of the VW Group: Volkswagen wants to become technology leader
VW wants to become technology leader in batteries
shutterstock / Royalty-free: 1261705642
The Volkswagen Group is continuing to drive forward the fundamental system change in individual mobility and is consistently focusing on the electric drive. Over the next ten years, almost 70 new electric models are expected to hit the market. The number of projected vehicles on the E-platforms of the Group is 22 million units.

As a result, the battery requirements of the Volkswagen Group alone in Europe and Asia will increase to more than 300GWh annually. Today’s cell capacities do not cover what the market will need in the future.

Since currently the sales figures of electric cars are still manageable, in the past the battery cells were imported mainly from Asia. The first battery factories in Europe are now in the process of being able to supply the vehicle volumes of the coming years.

But once the e-offensive of the VW Group has picked up speed, the regional production of batteries from a competitive point of view makes sense, the car company in a recent release. Therefore, the Group’s battery strategy is an integral part of Volkswagen’s electrification strategy.

Supervisory Board approves nearly one billion investments for battery factory
As part of its electric offensive, the Volkswagen Group will accelerate the development of battery cell production as part of a partnership in Europe. To this end, the Supervisory Board approved an investment volume of just under one billion euros in a past meeting.

It is planned to locate such a battery cell production in Lower Saxony, provided the economic conditions are given for this. These include in particular the exemption from the EEG surcharge and at the same time the availability of electricity from renewable energy sources. The plans and the finalization of the investments are expected to be finalized by the end of the year.

Volkswagen pursues a multi-level approach to building expertise in the battery
In the first step, strategic partnerships with the established cell suppliers are a crucial basis for supplying the batteries for the vehicles as part of the electrification offensive. These are long-term partnerships that sustainably secure a large part of the supply of the corresponding technology leaps. The main suppliers were SKI, LG Chem and CATL for the first wave of electromobility.

In addition, it is important to build up considerable know-how in the research, development and production of lithium-ion batteries. At the Center of Excellence (CoE) in Salzgitter, the Group has bundled responsibility for the development, procurement and quality assurance of all battery cells for the Group. Starting in the second half of 2019, the Group will launch a pilot production at the site.

Due to the capital intensity of the investment in cell production, so-called gigafactories are to be set up with partners, with a focus on possible locations in Germany.

In the next phase, the Group plans to build a cell manufacturing facility for lithium-ion and cell manufacturing for solid-state batteries - both in Europe. The partnership with the US company QuantumScape is an integral part of the Group’s battery strategy, especially against the background of cell production for solid-fuel batteries.

Volkswagen wants to become a technology and cost leader
The battery will make up a significant part of the added value of electric vehicles. That’s why the Group is working hard to make sure that the battery and battery cell will be another of Volkswagen’s core competencies in the future - across all stages of the process chain, from development through production to disposal or recycling.

For Volkswagen, it was clear that technology and cost leadership would be sought in this area. The group wants to offer customers not only the best e-vehicles, but also at competitive prices.

Commodity protection as a success factor
An important success factor is the protection of raw materials. The group is well positioned on the topic. From today’s point of view, Volkswagen is confident that the company will have enough of all the necessary raw materials for the ramp-up of electromobility.

In Lithium, the essential component of a battery, the Group has recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Ganfeng for a 10-year contract. This agreement alone guarantees VW a substantial share of its lithium requirements. Further negotiations with other providers are ongoing.






TDT, do not forget the hidden stocks.

They spoke of 400.000Tn



How long ago was that? I seem to remember reports of off exchange ghost stocks of that level well over 2 years ago. Do you think there is still 400,000 tonnes out there just waiting to come back into the market? If there is how long do you think it will take for that to get soaked up? Even if 400,000 tonnes were to be used to make up the gap between supply and demand going forward from now it would likely all be gone within 4 to 5 years.

I’d be surprised if there there is 400,000 tonnes and if there is I suspect a lot of it has already been pledged to end users.

TDT :sunglasses:



TDT :sunglasses: