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LME Nickel Stocks

lse:amc

#1024

Kind of sums it all up really.

TDT :sunglasses:

"Scania, the heavy truck division of Volkswagen Group, also had battery manufacturing news this week. It says it has signed a deal with Swedish startup Northvolt to purchase a “significant proportion” of the 32 MWh worth of batteries that will be produced at its factory every year, according to Reuters. Scania CEO Henrik Henriksson says “There will be a shortage of batteries for the automotive sector globally in the coming five to six years because there’s simply not enough capacity. So the more capacity we can get our hands on, the better we feel.”


#1025

October 2018


#1026

Nuno

I haven’t seen that particular article before, or at least I don’t remeber seeing it, so thanks for posting.

I had asumed ghost stocks were out there but I was not aware of how recent or how large the quantity.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1027

This is the same bank that said "BMO Capital’s Hamilton estimates that 465,000 tonnes of nickel is stored in hidden, or non-exchange, warehouses. That is nearly double the 235,019 tonnes in warehouses linked to futures exchanges for which data is available."

And have this forecast:


#1028

INNOLITH SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

It is a private equity company, I can not find the value of the shares.

TDT, do you know anything about INNOLITH?


#1029

TDT

You are good analising Live warrants andCancelled warrants

LME -3.270 tn


#1030

Nuno

We will only know tomorow which warrants the 3,270 tonnes have come from. I suspect most of if will come off the cancelled warrants total but its difficult to know for sure. There’s a lot going on under the surface at the moment with nickel. The Argus article you posted the other day titled “Spot nickel premiums resist high stocks pressure” seemed to confirm that.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1031


#1032

Nuno

There’s a page in that EVO BNEF document you posted a link to earlier today that caught my attention. It was this:-

The volume weighted average lithium-ion pack price from 2010 to 2018 is interesting because it gives you a very good idea of how far and how fast lithium-ion battery prices have fallen. Projecting forward is difficult because the percentage YoY falls in price vary dramatically from a YoY high of 35% to a a low of 8%. You can, however, make a reasonably intelligent stab at projecting future price falls if we try and establish an average percentage drop from 2010 to 2018. That’s what I’ve done in the below screen shot of a spread sheet I put together.

The figures in the Actual column are the ones produced by BNEF. The ones to the left of that are a constant 21% YoY fall in price from 2010. As you will see by the time you get to 2018 its the same as the Actual drop. If we continue at an average of 21% for the following years you get a pretty good idea of where it might go and when.

To the right are a series of percentage YoY falls in price assuming 20% all the way down to 10%. Various articles have marked $100/kWh as the price batteries have to reach for EVs to be competitive in price with ICE vehicles. If you assume the price drop is going to continue along the lines seen to date then the year when $100/kWh is achieved is 2020/21. Even if the price drop slows down dramatically and improves by, on average, as little as 10% YoY then you will only have to wait until 2023 for the magic $100/kWh level to be reached.

Past performance is no guarantee of future performance but in the absence of a crystal ball its the best we’ve got.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1033

#1034

#1035

#1036

This is the stand out section in that Tesla article from Mining.com.

“Granted, Teslas have always had bigger batteries than competitor cars to help with fast-charging and reduce the number one anxiety of first time EV buyers – range.”

“But battery sizes have been growing across different makes with the sales-weighted average capacity 55% higher in March compared to 2018 according to Adamas.”

We might see volumes fail to reach expected levels this year but if we do the amount of nickel going into EVs will be more than offset by the increased battery size and change to nickel rich chemistry to achieve longer range.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1037

More Class 1 is required.


#1038

Nickel drivers at the present moment:
Hidden stocks, new projects HPAL in Indonesia, the trade war, dollar appreciation.


#1039

#1040

#1041

#1042

#1043