There’s a page in that EVO BNEF document you posted a link to earlier today that caught my attention. It was this:-
The volume weighted average lithium-ion pack price from 2010 to 2018 is interesting because it gives you a very good idea of how far and how fast lithium-ion battery prices have fallen. Projecting forward is difficult because the percentage YoY falls in price vary dramatically from a YoY high of 35% to a a low of 8%. You can, however, make a reasonably intelligent stab at projecting future price falls if we try and establish an average percentage drop from 2010 to 2018. That’s what I’ve done in the below screen shot of a spread sheet I put together.
The figures in the Actual column are the ones produced by BNEF. The ones to the left of that are a constant 21% YoY fall in price from 2010. As you will see by the time you get to 2018 its the same as the Actual drop. If we continue at an average of 21% for the following years you get a pretty good idea of where it might go and when.
To the right are a series of percentage YoY falls in price assuming 20% all the way down to 10%. Various articles have marked $100/kWh as the price batteries have to reach for EVs to be competitive in price with ICE vehicles. If you assume the price drop is going to continue along the lines seen to date then the year when $100/kWh is achieved is 2020/21. Even if the price drop slows down dramatically and improves by, on average, as little as 10% YoY then you will only have to wait until 2023 for the magic $100/kWh level to be reached.
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance but in the absence of a crystal ball its the best we’ve got.