"In addition, the national hydrogen vehicle outputs and sales for the first four months in 2019 surged 154.8% and 289.8% respectively, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers."strong text
The Reuters article you posted earlier stated:-
“But it’s the second nickel spreads blow-out this year after January’s brief but vicious cash-date squeeze.”
That’s when we saw a significant increase in LME stock with draw down in the weeks that followed all the way through to the end of February being fairly muted.
“And more such episodes seem inevitable, if LME stocks extend their long-running downtrend.”
It looks to me like we’re about to see something similar, several days of increasing stock levels in the LME followed by relatively modest draw downs for several weeks after. After the hiatus in January this year and modest draw downs in February, however, the draw down picks up in March.
Demand for class 1 nickel, ultimately, is only going to increase.
Live warrants - 104,106
Cancelled warrants - 60,426
Total - 164,532
Cancelled warrants down to 36.7%, the lowest for several weeks. That trend looks like its set to continue.
14 May it was 40,88%
15 May 38.89%
And yesterday 36,7 %
There are canceled warrants returning to the market
On 01/04/2019 is was 37.1%. The difference back then was the total in the LME was falling.
I think this reversal could be more prolonged than the one in January this year. With demand for stainless steel softening just as NPI output from Indonesia increases the market is going to have to adjust somehow. NPI is cheaper to produce than class 1. The obvious move is NPI being substituted for the class 1 that currently goes into making stainless.
Stocks in the LME are set to increase in the immediate term IMO.
You are right, LME +600
The LME nickel market was last week gripped by the most acute tightness in a decade. Falling inventory and tighter spreads are normally strong bull signals in a commodity market. And in nickel’s case they seem to tally nicely with the International Nickel Study Group’s (INSG) forecast that supply will fall short of usage for the fourth successive year in 2019. (Graphic courtesy of Reuters)
Source: Gavin Wendt, Minelife
LME Stock Levels
And there’s more to come by the looks of things.
This site has good information