Nickel market records deficit in January to March 2019
The nickel market was in deficit during January to March 2019 with apparent demand exceeding production by 23.2 kt. In the whole of 2018 the calculated deficit was 90 kt. WBMS has revised its estimated demand for Indonesia for the last three years which has changed the market balances for the period. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of March 2019 were 23.9 kt lower than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to March 2019 totalled 512.0 kt and demand was 535.3 kt.
**Mine production during January to March was 534.8 kt, 45 kt above the comparable 2018 total. Chinese smelter/refinery output increased by 14 kt compared with 2018 and apparent demand was 16 kt higher than in the previous year. **
World apparent demand was 10 kt higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes
In March 2019, nickel smelter/refinery production was 177.7 kt and consumption was 180.7kt.
BMO lowers the price for nickel
2019 April 5.80 May 5.65
2020 April 5.90 May 5.85
“Citi’s 2020 full year forecasts are bullish on copper, nickel and aluminum relative to current spot prices. Citi is most bearish on zinc, coking coal and iron ore.”
I wasn’t expecting this!
Live - 101,118
Cancelled - 64,014
Total - 165,132
The overall total increased but the live and cancelled totals have shifted significantly in an unexpected way.
Today’s “Total|” figure will be telling.
A modest drop of 96 tonnes today. The live/cancelled warrants figures tomorow will give a better idea of where this is all going.
On the basis of this:-
“Ramu is a large scale nickel-cobalt mine with estimated reserves of one billion pounds of nickel and 100 million pounds of cobalt. Ramu exceeded annual production projections in 2017, reporting net cash flow of US$170 million on production of 34,666 tonnes of contained nickel and 3,308 tonnes of contained cobalt. Ramu produces 3% of annual global mined cobalt as a by-product. It has an estimated mine life of 30 years.”
1 billion pounds of nickel is about 450,000 tonnes. At approximately 35,000 tonnes a year that’s a 13 year mine life if you only consider the reserves which, in essence, you should since reserves are the economically mineable part. You would have to lob in another 1billion pounds+ resourse to get a 30 year mine life at current extraction rates.
As always, you can make excellent conclusions, thanks
“The coming CO2 targets in Europe can be seen as the apocalypse of the car industry. If the 2021 conditions were applied today (2018 sales, av CO2 emissions), excluding eco-innovation credits, many car makers would face difficulties. VW Group, highest fine. Source: JATO, carmakers”
This presents a huge challenge and massive incentive for car companies. The only way they can deal with this is to rush the development and sale of EVs into the European market. At the same time companies already selling EVs, Tesla, and Nissan and to a lesser extent Jaguar, BMW, Hyundai, Audi stand to benefit from the new rules. Tesla is already likely to benefit from this.
There are so many different factors driving the adoption of EVs at the moment its difficult not to be optimistic about uptake.