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LME Nickel Stocks

lse:amc

#1167

#1168

#1169

#1170

Just cant find a reason to buy 2016 lows yet. Fundamentally or technically. This is grasping at straws but the little glimmer of hope is that the potential monthly divergence shows up somehow on the weekly chart. Maybe even a change in a heiken ashi candle to green in this area might be a sign in the next two weeks. Just cant find any other support tech or funda


#1171

#1172

Trump will have to change direction soon if only to ensure that the impact of doing so will positively affect his chances of re-election in 2020. I think the Chinese know that as well which probably helps explain why they’re not budging. It will be interesting to see how Trump spins this whole vane glorious episode.

Its just over 17 months to the next American presidential election. Trump will have to move soon if he is going to unwind the damage already done. No later than September 2019 would be my guess

TDT :sunglasses:


#1173

#1174

#1175

#1176

#1177

#1178

Nickel LME -930


#1179

https://www.rolandberger.com/de/Point-of-View/Elektromobilität-Der-Schlüssel-Rohstoff-Nickel-wird-knapp.html#!#GimsSwiss%20%23MADEbyRB

OEMs, cell manufacturers and suppliers must secure their supply chains
Especially from politics, the call for a national or European battery production is getting louder and louder. The dependence on Asian manufacturers must urgently be reduced, so the argument. The fact that it is even more important to have access to critical raw materials at all is often ignored in the discussion. If the issue of raw material supply ever comes up, then especially in connection with cobalt and lithium. According to the current state of knowledge, there is at most a moderate supply and price risk for both battery raw materials. The situation with nickel is completely different: This key raw material is currently particularly scarce. This poses significant risks to the cost-effectiveness of batteries - and thus to the electromobility of tomorrow.

With supply shortages of nickel in sight, prices for lithium-ion batteries are likely to rise.
With supply shortages of nickel in sight, prices for lithium-ion batteries are likely to rise.
“National or European cell manufacturers only have a chance if they secure their supply chains to the mine, and if they do not, they will suffer a similar fate as the photovoltaic industry.”
Portrait of Wolfgang Bernhard
Wolfgang Bernhard
SENIOR PARTNER
Stuttgart Office, Central Europe
The electric drive is booming - and with it the need for batteries. By the year 2025 alone, the market for lithium-ion batteries will quadruple to more than 1,000 GWh; by 2030, it will total nearly 2,000 GWh.

But while supply and demand at Kobalt will increase at a similar pace after the speculative price rises of last year and the supply of lithium in the course of new mining projects will tend to increase, this is not the case for nickel according to current knowledge - quite the contrary: for the production of In fact, only the so-called Grade I nickel is suitable for high-energy cathode materials. Its stocks have more than halved in the last three years from around 500 kt in January 2016 to about 220 kt in December 2018, while the stock price of almost 12,000 USD per tonne is below the cash cost of many mines.

Biggest increase in nickel-rich materials
As a result, demand for Cobalt & Co has recorded steep growth curves for years. For nickel and nickel-rich materials, the relative increase is currently greatest. This has to do on the one hand with the higher energy density of nickel-rich cathode materials, on the other hand with the desire to replace cobalt (for political and environmental reasons) as much as possible.

But while supply and demand at Kobalt will increase at a similar pace after the speculative price rises of last year and the supply of lithium in the course of new mining projects will tend to increase, this is not the case for nickel according to current knowledge - quite the contrary: for the production of In fact, only the so-called Grade I nickel is suitable for high-energy cathode materials. Its stocks have more than halved in the last three years from around 500 kt in January 2016 to about 220 kt in December 2018, while the stock price of almost 12,000 USD per tonne is below the cash cost of many mines.

With NCM811 and the increased use of other nickel-rich variants, supply from 2022 should be even more difficult. Mine closures in the Philippines last year and a threat of export ban on ore from Indonesia from 2022 further exacerbate the situation.

How companies guarantee access to scarce raw materials can be studied on the model of Asian companies. As far as the long-term supply of cobalt is concerned, the large suppliers have secured themselves well through joint ventures and direct investments. For example, LG Chem entered into two joint ventures with Huayou Zhejiang Cobalt to ensure cobalt supply to two factories in China. Such vertical integration is accompanied by direct investments in mines. Long-term supply contracts are also a popular option for lithium supply. Korean cell suppliers, but also TESLA Panasonic SMM and some Chinese and Western cathode manufacturers are well positioned in terms of raw material supply. Western cathode material producers like BASF have also entered into nickel supply contracts, in this case from BASF with Norilsk Nickel.

The market will consolidate dynamically in the coming years - and the dominance of Asian providers will continue to increase. By the middle of the next decade, magnesium-rich cell chemistries could ease the situation. Until then, the field will be further divided - between those who have access to critical resources. And those who are missing.


#1180

Nickel dropped by 930 tonnes on the 24th. I don’t think it’s dropped another similar amount today. We will know for sure tomorrow when the LME opens again.

Ignore the above comment. Nickel droppd by 978 tonnes on the 24th. It looks like the 930 tonne drop today is in fact correct.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1181

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-27/vw-to-reshuffle-56-billion-battery-push-as-samsung-deal-at-risk


#1182

#1183

#1184

#1185

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3875701/Search-results/LIVE-FUTURES-REPORT-2805-SHFE-zinc-price-climbs-17-others-mixed.html


#1186

The 930 tonne drop reported yesterday is not showing in the LME. Furthermore today’s figures show a 1,506 tonne increase in LME stock.

Looks like the panic from the Indonesian riots has abated somewhat.

I have a feeling we are about to see an increase in LME inventory stretching over the next several weeks or so.

TDT :sunglasses: