Yep. I’ve just seen that.
The rise in live warrants was a surprise today. The total in the LME falling yet again is another surprise, especially when you consider the size of the fall. I’ve decided to give up trying to predict what these falls mean because they defy both logic and current developments in the market.
I await tomorrow’s LME live and cancelled warrants totals with bated breath.
Live warrants (available quantity) in the LME + Cancelled Warrants (reserved quantity) stocks = LME stocks.
When there is a drop in Cancelled Warrants and an increase in Live Warrants, it means that there is more nickel available and less reserved.
What matters in fact , is the amount of nickel that is available. Smaller quantities in the Live Warrants, will be a good indicator
Even more interesting would be access to the Cancelled Ratio, it is a very good indicator
You should also have in mind stocks held at SHFE, base metal stocks at Shanghai Futures Exchange.
When I spoke about NPI, I spoke only to demonstrate the Chinese determination to increase NPI production in order to replace Class 1’s needs for stainless steel production.
A significant increase in the production of NPI and being an excellent substitute and cheaper, more NPI will be used to preserve Class 1 for batteries.
Undoubtedly, I think these are serious problems for high cost miners.
He is assured a second term in the public vote. So the games commence to stop that. What democracy?
Interesting. Is that your thoughts or is this a cut and paste from an article? If so which article?
They are my thoughts and answer to a question they asked me.
I took advantage of Jim Lennon’s article and his ideas about Nickel’s market to make my own interpretation.
Although I agree that it is necessary to have higher prices to encourage mining, especially if we think in a responsible and environmentally friendly mining.
I agree with what you say, especially this bit:-
“…I think these are serious problems for high cost miners.”
At $10,000/tonne half the industry is losing money at $12,000/tonne a quarter.
The above graph is a year or two old now but the break evens are pretty much the same. Problem is a lot of the high cost producers aren’t price sensitive. They’ll keep on churning out the stuff no matter what the price. The one thing this situation does do, however, is it eliminates the incentive to go out and find more nickel. The current nickel price simply doesn’t justify the costs involved.
Nickel is ultimately destined to see another rapid increase in price. When is the big unknown.
You should have already posted this chart.
Thank you very much, I was looking for this.
Where did you get it?
I’ll e-mail you the presentation it came from.
Live - 104,940
Cancelled - 55,350
Total - 160,290
The live warrants up by 42 tonnes the cancelled warrants down by 2,856 tonnes.
Live Warrants increasead again…
Market participants said that the strength in nickel could be a result of expectations that China’s biggest independent nickel pig iron (NPI) producer Xinhai Technology may be required to cut production while it undergoes environmental inspections. As yet, the company has not cut any production.