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LME Nickel Stocks

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#1247

Nuno

Sometimes you get these funny little bumps in the road that completely contradict what’s has gone before and what ultimately happens in the future. This development, however, doesn’t look like that to me. With demand softening due to Trump’s trade war and supply coming out of Indonesia increasing it looks more like a fundamental market shift.

The nickel market is pretty difficult to read right now, there being so many things pulling in different directions. The month of May might well turn out to be an anomaly we will just have to wait and see.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1248

One other factor to consider. The uptake of EVs seems to be slowing down. Its a bit early in the year to draw any defintive conclusions but the uptake for the first 4 months of the year is only 52.97% high than the same period last year with the uptake in April only 29.39% higher than the same month last year. A bump in the road perhaps? Again, we will just have to wait and see.

I still expect about 3m EV sales worldwide in 2019.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1249

I agree TDT


#1250

#1251

The more pronounced weakness in nickel comes amid weakening fundamentals for the metal, with output – both mine and refined – considerably outstripping consumption, acting as a further headwind for prices, Farida said.

_The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) states that global mine output remains strong, noting an increase of 8.2% in the first three months of 2019, mainly due to continued production ramps up by Chinese-funded Indonesian miners. _

At the same time, the Chinese refined output rose by 11.8% in January-March this year, following annual growth of 14.2% in 2018, despite strict environmental inspections and one-off industrial accidents.

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3876734/LIVE-FUTURES-REPORT-0306-SHFE-nickel-slides-09-amid-escalated-trade-tensions-Zn-Pb-resilient.html


#1252

#1253

Michael Beck has been saying the same thing for years. Probably has something to do with his large invesment in Giga.

I suppose if you say something often enough there’s a strong possibility you’re going to be correct at some point.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1254

Nuno

Nickel stocks in the LME up by 342 tonnes. I suspect we are going to see a much higher increase in live warrants than just 342 tonnes.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1255

We’ll have to see tomorrow. :frowning:


#1256

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4267893-ev-company-news-month-may-2019?app=1&isDirectRoadblock=true


#1257

Live warrants up by 1,200 tonnes to 106,092 tonnes.

TDT


#1258

#1259

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3876972/Search-results/LIVE-FUTURES-REPORT-0406-Weak-dollar-positive-fundamentals-push-SHFE-copper-up-by-04.html


#1260

The nickel price is not responding to the devaluation of the dollar, the other drivers already mentioned are taking care of the price.


#1261

The total amount of nickel in the LME has gone down by 30 tonnes. I would expect live warrants to go up while cancelled warrants continue their decline. We shall see tomorrow.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1262

Live warrants up by 324 tonnes.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1263

EV sales figures for the USA for the month of May are filtering through at the moment. They appear to confirm the trend for the first four months already reported, namely a slowing down in the uptake of EVs. How much of that is down to Tesla diverting production to the Chinese and European markets is the big unknown. The figures would suggest it is the principal reason.

TDT :sunglasses:

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/high-voltage-ev-sales-slow-in-april-but-tesla-reaffirms-market-dominance/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Stockhead%20Morning%20Newsletter%20Wed%20June%205&utm_content=Stockhead%20Morning%20Newsletter%20Wed%20June%205+CID_d8fbf2ffd116e887b3bcff1f74893acc&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=High%20Voltage%20EV%20sales%20slow%20in%20April%20but%20Tesla%20reaffirms%20market%20dominance


#1264

This goes some way to confirming the above.

Tesla M3 sales in the USA in January and February this year were a fraction of the numbers achieve in the 4th. Q 2018. April and May 2019 were less than half the number sold in December 2018. Production levels didn’t fall over this period so where have all these cars gone if they haven’t been sold into the American market?

TDT :sunglasses:


#1265

Thanks TDT


#1266