LME Nickel +5100
That’s quite a jump most of which, I expect, will be on the live warrants side if not all.
This is just the start.
Nickel market analysts were resolutely bearish during a pricing panel at the Fastmarkets’ seventh International Nickel conference in Amsterdam on Wednesday June 5, forecasting that the London Metal Exchange three-month nickel price is unlikely to breach $13,000 per tonne this year.
The LME three-month price is currently trading below $12,000 per tonne, hitting an intraday high of $11,860 per tonne on Tuesday June 4. According to analysts speaking at the conference, this decline will continue into the second half of 2019. The LME three-month nickel price is more likely to fall to $10,000 than hit $13,000 per tonne in the fourth quarter of 2019, Citi commodities strategist Oliver Nugent said
I have a different link to that presentation.
Did you pick up on Simon Moore saying that Tesla has managed to get the price of producing their batteries down below $100/kWh? I think he says this at about 21 minutes 45 seconds on the link I posted above. If that’s correct that’s a huge milestone.
Thanks again, it would really be a fantastic milestone.
We have to be positive, the electrification has still begun.
Have you seen the amount of new ev models that will launch?
The other comment that Simon Moore made that that jumped out at me was the number of battery factories being built and the number of cars the capacity of these factories could supply which he said was between 22m and 24m vehicles. He then went on to say that he thought it wouldn’t be enough.
I reckon 3.2m EVs this year, 5m next year and somewhere between 7.5m and 8m in 2021. Once we get to 2021 the nickel market should be starting to boil. It all depending, of course, on what Trump does in the interim.
Live warrants up by only 4,350 to 110,766 tonnes. At least it wasn’t the whole 5,100!
The LME launched a consultation on a series of warehouse changes that could relax delivery rules, including queue-based rent caps. This consultation closed on May 31 this year.
The decline in stocks on the LME and on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been “the hot topic of the year,” Xodo said. Recent drawdowns of nickel briquette stocks were mostly in Asia, he said, and were probably due to a move to off-warrant storage and increased demand from the battery sector.
The LME was also re-engaging with local authorities in China to open warehouses in the country, which consumes 50% of primary nickel demand, Xodo said.
“The demand outlook for stainless steel is worsening, which does not bode well for nickel usage if more mills turn to production cuts in an effort to reset the stainless steel market’s fundamentals, establish a price floor and restore their margins,” Fastmarkets MB analyst James Moore said.
The total increase was actually 5,136 tonnes. Of that total live warrants increased by 4,350 tonnes and cancelled warrants by 786 tonnes.
I’m expecting to see an increase again today but I’m not expecting it to be anywhere near yesterdays figure.