The macroeconomic backdrop will have to improve if Trump is going to get a second term. All one term president, Bush Snr., Carter, Ford, Hoover all failed to secure second terms during periods of economic weakness/turmoil. That’s what Trump needs to avoid if he is going to get a second term and engineering that when the levers of control are not in his hands will be difficult. He will need China to come on side if he is going to have any chance and I strongly suspect they will not oblige.
For China a brief period of pain to rid themselves and the world of this unpredictable individual will be a price worth paying. They’re playing the long game.
Without any doubt :piscadela:
Chronicle of the nickel: it rains on Amsterdam
Nickel is in the red since Monday. It records five consecutive sessions of decline with a floor price of 11.625 dollars per ton, a level at the lowest since January 24th. The trade war continues and Indonesia could saturate the market.
Eramet-SLN Caledonian ferronickel containers in Antwerp, Belgium. © Alain Jeannin
© ALAIN JEANNIN Eramet-SLN Caledonian ferronickel containers in Antwerp, Belgium.
By Alain Jeannin
Posted on 08/06/2019 at 04:53, updated on 08/06/2019 at 08:22
LME nickel prices are not expected to return to $ 13,000 a tonne in 2019, according to analysts who spoke at the International Metal Conference’s nickel conference (Fastmarkets.) And prices could even drop to 11,250 dollars per ton at the end of the year provides for Colin Hamilton, managing director of BMO Capital Markets, a leading financial market player. Other analysts were however less pessimistic not hesitating to speculate on a rise in prices “with a probability of 30%” which is not very high …
Amsterdam, capital of nickel
Other information circulated during the conference held in the capital of the Netherlands, so it was learned that Indonesia could represent 40% of global nickel supply in 4 years, against 29% this year. Even the announcement of a drop in Philippine exports in 2019, the mining industry facing new taxes and environmental pressures, was not enough to cheer up investors, traders and producers at the Hilton Amsterdam. The recovery of the supply of Indonesian nickel ore and the supply potential at a reduced cost to China by nickel alloys from Indonesia have clouded the market outlook.
"This likely rise in supply and therefore Indonesian exports has showered hopes of a rapid recovery of nickel prices."
Alastair Munro, analyst at Marex Spectron
While demand for nickel from the global stainless steel sector has almost doubled to nearly 40 million tonnes over the last decade and inventory reduction remains good, with 164,052 tonnes in the LME warehouses, the lowest level in seven years, market fundamentals are not reassuring enough to boost nickel prices. Even the advent of electric vehicles and the expected increase in demand for nickel-rich batteries, with double-digit market growth in 2025, did not improve the morale of participants …
The price of nickel fell this week on the London Metal Exchange, affected Friday by data worse than expected on US employment that are fear for global growth. Job creation in the United States was much lower than expected in May as employers put a brake on hiring in the face of uncertainty over the global economy and the effects of the trade war. For two months, the metals suffer from these tensions, which threaten to affect the industrial activity, and therefore the demand for base metals.
Once is not custom, lead, metal market much smaller than copper, aluminum or nickel, caught the attention of investors, while its course rises on the week, against the current large metals. “The lead smelter of Port Pirie (Australia) is out of service, that’s the explanation,” commented analysts at ING Bank AFP. The operator of the site, the Nyrstar Group, is the world’s leading producer of lead and zinc.
In London the nickel price is down 3.07% over the week. The metal lost 0.39% Friday evening in London, it was trading at 11.625 dollars per ton, or 5.27 dollars per pound.
LME data week from June, 3 to 7.
Live Warrants started the week at 106,092 and ended at 110,262
Cancelled Warrants started the week at 52,854 and ended at 53,706
Opening Stocks increased by 5,022.
Tha’t what happened last week. What do you think will happen this week?
Honestly, I do not know how to answer you.
That makes two of us becuase I’ve got no idea where nickel is going to go either tomorrow, next week, next month or for the rest of this year. Its a very complicated picture at the moment.
"China equities outperformed overnight, with the Shanghai Composite jumping 2.6%, after Beijing encouraged local governments to use special bonds for infrastructure projects in a bid to shore up economic growth.
That helped offset President Trump’s threat to raise tariffs again if President Xi Jinping doesn’t meet with him at the G-20 summit at the end of June.
The onshore yuan also bounced off its closing low of the year as the PBOC set its reference rate higher than forecast and announced plans to sell bills this month after the currency was hit in May.
Nickel stocks in the LME down by all of 18 tonnes today. The brakes are still on.
It looks like they might be about to kiss and make up.
Live warrants down by 606 tonnes. That’s the first significant drop in live warrants in almost three weeks.
One swallow does not a summer make.
Lets wait an see what the rest of the week brings.