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LME Nickel Stocks

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#1327

What, India, cooking the books!!! Surely not.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-11/world-s-fastest-growing-economy-may-not-be-so-fast-after-all?cmpid=BBD061119_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=190611&utm_campaign=bloombergdaily

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

TDT :sunglasses:


#1328

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3878222/Search-results/LIVE-FUTURES-REPORT-1206-SHFE-base-metals-prices-fall-as-trade-optimism-fades-Ni-up-07.html


#1329

#1330

#1331

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3878050/LITHIUM-CONF-High-content-nickel-batteries-to-remain-predominant?utm_source=LinkedIn&utm_medium=Organic+Social&utm_term=Marketing&utm_content=Link&utm_campaign=Marketing


#1332

Nuno

The Fastmarkets article is interesting. Esepcially this bit:-

“Chinese producers are converting Indonesian class 2 nickel and capital expenditures more than doubled because of that, he added.”

I wonder where that puts them on the nickel cost curve? CAPEX is one thing but OPEX another. It would be useful to know what the break even is for producing nickel sulphate from class 2 nickel. It can’t be cheap or at least I hope its not.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1333

Total in the LME up by 114 tonnes to 163,992 today.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1334

It is not, as I said " It was recently reported that the Tsingshan project in Indonesia, which was expected to cost around USD 700M, as plenty analysts suspected is already at USD 1.2B… The Chinese purpose is in my point of view, to free up the largest amount of Class 1 for the batteries, and produce class 2 that replaces the demand for Class 1.

Another problem of HPAL in Indonesia and financial viability is, the project was projected at a nickel price of 14,000 USD / TON, of course, as I said, to help this cost you have cobalt as a sub product, now cobalt prices are extremely low, so the financial viability of these HPLAs are not enforceable at $ 14,000 / t to nickel and at $ 35,000 / t to Cobalt.
Once project costs have slipped, it will probably only be viable at $ 20,000 / t, just like other HPAL projects."


#1335

#1336

#1337

The problem with nickel is the number of miners out there who are not price sensitive. It’s only 30% of the market that is price sensitive.

A large proportion of the supply chain will pump out nickel no matter what the price so it may take some time for the current low price to bite. It may also act as a deterrent to other HPAL projects starting up. I guess it all depends on whether you buy into the EV story and whether you’re prepared to gamble or not.

Interesting times ahead.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1338

This could be a real shot in the arm for the EV market in China.

“Last week (June 6), China said local governments can no longer issue restrictions on purchases of new energy vehicles, nor limit the times when they can be on the road.”

TDT :sunglasses:


#1339

Thanks TDT

Do you know How many Ktons do these 30% represent?

Nuno


#1340

At a guess I would assume its about 30% of the current annual market which would make it somewhere between 600,000 and 650,000 tonnes.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1341

#1342

#1343

Live warrants down by 1,506 tonnes, which is nice :hugs:

TDT :sunglasses:


#1344

#1345

We really need a more detailed picture on what’s going on in the nickel market, especially with Claass 1, Class 2 and NPI. In particular it would be interesting to know if NPI is being substituted for the Class 1 still going in to making stainless steel. In the absence of detail a lot of these headlines are pretty meaningless.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1346