Interesting that nickel stocks in the LME went up by 2,958 tonnes yesterday but, at the same time, the live warrants total fell by 816 tonnes. The total has gone down by 1,002 tonnes today. I expect to see another significant fall in the live warrants total tomorrow although in this market…
As predicted, live warrants went down yesterday, not by much though only 918 tonnes.
“Nickel edges up on US Fed rate cut hints”
It edged up yesterday and, according to Kitco, its dropped today. It might recover later today once the Americans get going.
“NIO begins deliveries of ES6 with NCM 811 battery”
This is an interesting development. As demand for EVs softens slightly the amount of nickel in the batteries being produced begins to rise. No wonder analysts have difficulty predicting where the market is going.
Another 402 tonnes out the door today. Whether the live warrants total has gone down further remains to be seen.
Live warrants down by 2,952 tonnes to end the week at 107,664 tonnes. Whether the live warrants continue to fall next week remains to be seen. The cancelled warrants total, however, should start to go down as inventory scheduled to leave the exchange is taken out.
LME data week from June, 17 to 21. Live Warrants started the week at 115,476 and ended at 107.664 Cancelled Warrants started the week at 51.672 and ended at 61.020
Opening Stocks increased by 1.536
Chronicle of nickel: the metal on the front line
The nickel market is again caught between commercial conflicts and geopolitical tensions. The economic, political and military fronts are as important as nickel’s fundamentals, supply and demand. New Caledonia’s exports of ferronickel have declined.
Long Beach industrial port in the United States © AFP
© AFP Long Beach Industrial Port in the USA
By Alain Jeannin
Posted on 22/06/2019 at 00:52, updated on 22/06/2019 at 03:25
The London Metal Exchange rises and retreats, against a backdrop of escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran. An all-out reason for profit taking by industrial or financial investors. Nickel is consolidating this week, but its performance is mixed. She suggests that world supply strongly influences prices. Any new trade agreement between the United States and China would likely see demand pick up again.
The price of nickel reached a high of 12,390 dollars per ton Thursday evening, its highest price since May 20, supported by the weakness of the dollar and the fragile hope of a trade truce between the United States and the United States. China. The focus is on the planned meetings of world leaders at the G20 summit to be held next week in Japan.
Thursday, 11,500 lots of nickel were traded in London, just behind 17,000 lots of copper and 15,000 lots of aluminum.
The Japanese producer Sumitomo has considered a rise in the global nickel deficit in 2019. Deficit that would increase by 51,000 tons against 35,000 tons previously considered “due to the rise of stainless steel production in China” said Alastair Munro, analyst of nickel for trader Marex Spectron.
Brazil and New Caledonia
Earlier this week, nickel prices benefited from Brazilian producer Vale’s decision to suspend production at a plant in Brazil due to environmental risks. It should translate into a slight decline in world supply. The London market has taken note of two news items concerning New Caledonia. Lower ferronickel exports and higher exports of pure nickel. According to INSG’s latest statistics, based on customs information, New Caledonia’s ferronickel exports would have fallen by 27% over the first three months of 2019 compared to the same period of 2018 (12,000 tonnes of nickel against 16,494 tonnes). ). On the other hand, the production of pure nickel for electric vehicle batteries (nickel-hydroxide cake) is up 25.6%, indicating an increase in the production of the VNC plant in southern New Caledonia (2,089 tonnes produced in the first four months). of the year, 1663 tons in 2018).
China and Indonesia
Friday, turnaround. Nickel was again under pressure. The low prices observed during the day in Shanghai were like a cold shower in the midst of extreme tensions between the United States and Iran. The symptoms of a deterioration of the market appeared again. Nickel stocks available in Chinese warehouses are rising sharply. They increased by 5,835 tons, or 52.6% to 17,000 tons.
The prospect of an increase in Indonesian production has also slowed metal recovery. The “nickel district” of Kolata, southwest of Sulawesi, is expected to have two more plants by the end of 2021. The project is an industrial complex where two modern units would coexist, one producing an alloy of iron and steel. nickel (21%), the other pure nickel as well as cobalt. Chinese group ENFI is building a 350 MW coal-fired power plant.
"It is necessary to relativise, without neglecting, the project of the Indonesian industrialist (PT Ceria Nugraha IndoTama Ed.) It is undoubtedly closer to 50.000 tons of nickel than 260.000 tons as indicated some sources by adding the iron to And not until the end of 2021. The demand for electric vehicles is expected to absorb this production, two more Indonesian factories, New Caledonia can cope with it. "
David Wilson, nickel expert at Freepoint Commodities in London
The three-month nickel price was down 1.05% Friday at 1450 GMT. Nickel traded at $ 12,192 per ton ($ 5.53 per pound). Over the week, the price of nickel rose by 2.31%.
"NICKEL: The global nickel market deficit narrowed to 9,400
tonnes in April from a revised shortfall of 14,200 tonnes in the previous month, the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) said on Thursday."