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LME Nickel Stocks

lse:amc

#1469

#1470


#1471

A scary propsect indeed.

TDT


#1472

#1473

https://www.mining.com/renewable-energy-sources-in-the-us-now-greater-than-coal/


#1474

#1475

“BREAKING: Court rejects Prabowo’s vote-rigging claims”

That could mean riots this coming weekend.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1476

Although the nickel prespective is not very optimistic, we should not forget that in the year 2018 and according to Nornickel 143,000 nickel were used in the batteries.
While sales of electric vehicles are growing less than anticipated, the use of Nickel-rich battery technologies will offset the drop in sales.

In my opinion, it will be use in 2019 about 200,000 to 250,000 in batteries.
Big growth, but even so, only 10% of total production, but nearly nearly 30% of total Class 1 production.

Correction "There are three major factors that are contributing to the nickel uptake growth, which we have mentioned in our previous release - (1) growing EV production, (2) higher driving range requirements, and (3) the desire to decrease exposure to cobalt.
A combination of these 3 factors supported the demand growth for nickel in batteries last year: primary nickel use in batteries increased by 42% to 134 kt. "

Source NorNickel 07.05.2019


#1477

#1478

Interestingly NCA and NMC 622 batteries use similar amounts of nickel, approximately 0.65kg/kWh. That means a 50kWh battery containes about 32.5kg of nickel. If 143,000 tonnes of nickel went into batteries last year that means, assuming 50kWh batteries in every car, approximately 4.4m EVs. That’s twice as many EVs as the number we know were sold last year.

I think the Nornickel figure is wrong. I don’t think 143,000 tonnes of nickel did go into EV batteries in 2018. I think the figure was likely to be closer to half that total.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1479

This should put a rocket under battery demand.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1480

TDT :sunglasses:


#1481

Live warrants down by another 1,332 tonnes yesterday. Total in the LME now standing at 104,298 tonnes.

TDT


#1482

Removed.


#1483

Correction "There are three major factors that are contributing to the nickel uptake growth, which we have mentioned in our previous release - (1) growing EV production, (2) higher driving range requirements, and (3) the desire to decrease exposure to cobalt.
A combination of these 3 factors supported the demand growth for nickel in batteries last year: primary nickel use in batteries increased by 42% to 134 kt. "

Source NorNickel 07.05.2019


#1484

Nuno

I hear you but the figures don’t stack up. For a start 2m EVs were sold last year, about 65% were BEV’s the remaining 35% were PHEV’s. A PHEV has a much smaller battery than a BEV. If we assume, however, that the 2m sold last year all have the same amount of nickel then each car would have 67 kg of nickel.

According to the above table NCA and NMC 622 batteries have about 0.65kg of nickel per kWh which would mean, with 67 kg of nickel in the battery, a 103kWh battery. If you look at a Nissan Leaf the battery ranges from 40kWh to 62kWh, a Tesla Model 3 from 50kWh to 75kWh. If you then factor into the equation that PHEV’s have much smaller batteries the figure of 134,000 tonnes of nickel going into EV batteries in 2018 just does not stack up.

I may be missing something here so please point it out if you think I am.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1485

EV sales globally seem to be slowing down quite dramatically. For the first 5 months of this year 840,814 EVs have been sold whereas this time last year 591,796 EVs were sold. That’s a YoY increase to date of 42.08%. At this rate we will struggle to top 3m sales in 2019.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1486

TDT

Possibly Nornickel takes into account batteries that have been and are used for storage (stationary storage applications), not just the nickel used in electric vehicles, that seems to me to be the reason.

It seems easy to get to my numbers, if 134KT were used and the market grows only 48%.
134Kt + 48% = 198Kt
I am neglecting the increased the use of nickel Year / Year in NMC technology that grows much more than 48%


#1487

Nuno

The problem with that Nornickel report is the reference to 134k tonnes in 2018 comes in the middle of a section on batteries for EV’s. There’s no mention of static batteries in that part of the Nornickel report which leads me to believe that they’re talking about EV batteries and EV batteries alone.

I’ve seen other articles which peg the figure for nickel used in EV batteries in 2018 at half the figure quoted by Nornickel. It’s difficult to know what the truth is.

TDT :sunglasses:


#1488

TDT

The CRU numbers are quite different.