“The rapid growth in nickel demand post 2025 could put the nickel market into shortage by 2030,” said Hoffman.
So many different things going on in the nickel market right now all pulling in different directions. It’s EVs and the speed of their uptake that will determine the extent of the uplift in the immediate to near term. Long term I think the outcome is fairly certain. Its the next 2 to 3 years that are a bit uncertain.
This is a good example of what we were talking about the other day.
According to this extract from the Cobalt 27 prospectus 60,000 tonnes of nickel were used to make EV batteries in 2018 with only 110,000 expected to be used in batteries in 2020. If, as you suggested, the 134,000 tonnes quoted by Nornickel for 2018 included stationary batteries then what does that mean for the figures quoted here? Should we double them? Does than mean 220k tonnes in 2020, 800k tonnes in 2025 and 2.3m by 2030? It would be great if this were the case.
Nornickel’s numbers do not fit right, I do not understand this big difference.
I’ve seen 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of nickel used in EV batteries in 2018 quoted in several places so I’d take that to be fairly accurate. Also, if you take an average of 50kWh for the batterties in each EV and 0.65 kg/kWh of nickel in each battery (32.5kg of nickel per battery) then at 2m EVs in 2018 you get 65,000 tonnes of nickel at 32.5kg of nickel per EV.
The only thing I can think of to justify the 134,000 tonne figure quoted by Nornickel is the nickel used in stationary batteries and buses and the nickel bought as a speculative investment.
It looks like Nio’s roll out of the ES8 with 811 batteries is not going according to plan.
No great surprise!
Yesterday LME Live warrants up 55, Cancelled warrants drop 3.114
"Whilst the EV story appears to be the theme dominating any
bullish news flows, elevated stainless stocks and increasing
nickel pig iron production mean some specs see (the) short-term
rally as overdone," broker Marex Spectron said in a note.
** * NICKEL: The most traded August nickel contract on**
the Shanghai Futures Exchange slumped as much as 3.9% to 97,080
yuan ($14,144.59) a tonne, the lowest since June 13, and ended
the morning session at 97,150 yuan. Three-month nickel on the
London Metal Exchange was down 1.3% at $12,185 a tonne
**as of 0355 GMT, after ending down 2.7% on Monday. **
** * TIGHTNESS: Nickel’s momentum came from “flash”, or sudden**
tightness in SHFE and LME stocks, Citi said in a note. "Both are
technical and temporary in our view," it said, adding that: "We
do not believe the nickel rally has legs in the near term, based
on nickel’s own fundamentals."
Nickel is not going to go on a sustainable run up until demand for EVs takes off. Even if we see 3m EVs sold this year (50% up on 2018’s total) it still only amounts to about 100k tonnes of nickel for the batteries. Increased NPI out put from Indonesia and softening demand for SS can accommodate the increased demand from EVs.
We need to see annual demand for EVs up at about 10m per year and that’s a good 3 to 4 years away.
It’s just a waiting game.
Trade war, the damage is done.
LME stock down by another 210 tonnes today. How much of that is live warrants we will see tomorrow.