I don’t buy into the hydrogen hype, especially given that it’s being pushed by the Dutch.
LIve warrants in the LME have dropped by 1,866 tonnes. The total now stands at 102,072 tonnes.
Live warrants at 102.072!
When was the last time you saw these numbers?
Below 100,000 starts to be interesting.
“The release of global PMIs presented a gloomy picture for manufacturing activity and thus metals demand. The indexes fell across Asia and Europe, while growth in the US was limited. This was enough for investors to cut back on their recent bullish bets,” analysts with ANZ Research said in morning note.
“When was the last time you were in these numbers?”
Below 100,000 tonnes would be new territory but I’m not so sure its going to significantly impact price. At 100,000 tonnes of live warrants it amounts to about 5% of annual consumption. Copper has under 200,000 tonnes of live warrants currently. That’s less than 1% of annual consumption and that figure has been much lower in recent months yet the copper price has been hammered.
What is going to keep the nickel price low is the surplus of cheap NPI. Especially if that cheap NPI is used to substitute class 1 nickel currently going in to making stainless steel. The problem we have here is we don’t know much about NPI supply and demand. If we had something similar to the LME for class 2 nickel we would be in a much better position to judge as it is we’re just guessing.
I could be wrong.
Nickel in the LME down another 3,156 tonnes today. That’s a fairly aggressive move even if it is predominantly off the cancelled warrants total. This really is a bit of a head f_ck market right now.
Although SHFE stocks have declined at almost the same rate as those on the LME over the same period, supply is much tighter in the SHFE - LME nickel stocks stood at 164,718 tonnes on June 28, a 144,254-tonne difference.
We can not forget
Indonesia’s mines form the collective core of the world’s NPI production stream. The country’s output of mined nickel surged 71% to 606,000 tonnes last year and jumped another 30% to 235,000 tonnes in the first four months of 2019, according to the INSG.
The nickel market is expected to remain structurally tight across 2019 and 2020, according to thte Fastmarkets research team, forecasting annual deficits of 65,000 tonnes and 46,000 tonnes respectively.
Meanwhile, the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) data showed the refined nickel market in a 9,400-tonne deficit in April and a 27,200-tonne deficit across the first four months of 2019.
Effectively opening nickel stocks fell yesterday in 3.156 but live warrants rose in 1.866 to 103.938Kt
I think speculation is rife right now. A lot of the nickel that seems to be disappearing at the moment is, it would seem, being hoarded. That means at some point in the future its going to come back into the market.
LME data week from July, 01 to 05.
Live Warrants started the week at 103.938 and ended at 104.010 Cancelled Warrants started the week at 57.720 and ended at 53.454
Opening Stocks drop 4.194