LME Nickel Stocks



“Tsingshan, partners face cost hike at Indonesia battery chemicals plant - sources”

The truth is coming out.




This graph, from the Bloomberg article you posted, states:-

“Assuming linear growth between known data points”

Yet we know that the growth rate for a disruptive technology is likely to be anything other than linear, it will be exponential. If that is correct then the published estimates are likely to be wrong. In fact you would need to pull everything forward by 10 years or so to reflect an exponential adoption rate.

How does this square with what we are seeing at the moment? The initial stages of new technology adoption follow a fairly predictable pattern.

The “Tech Enthusiasts” phase for EV adoption has passed. The “Visionaries” stages is, IMO, in full flow. The slow down in adoption we are seeing at present is “The Chasm”. Subsidies and a raft of new regulations, in particular in Europe, together with falling prices for new EVs and the roll out of national charging infrastructures should see us cross “The Chasm” in the next 12 - 24 months. Once we are into the “Pragmatists” stage which should be late 2020 to middle of 2021 it will be game set an match.

A year or so ago I was expecting adoption to be quicker than what we are seeing but Trump’s trade war has knocked things off track a little. Late 2020, early 2021 should see the point of no return and a very rapid adoption of EVs from there on.

TDT :sunglasses:



I totally agree with your words, congratulations.



Trump weaponising tariffs will merely hasten America’s decline. Sure the USA is a large and lucrative market but the rest of the world is a far larger and far more lucrative one.

The next presidential election is less than 16 months away. There’s no guarantees that Trump will not get another term. If he does its anybodies guess as to where this will all go. A fundamental geopolitical realignment would be my guess with the USA becoming increasingly more isolated and, for that reason, increasingly more dangerous.

TDT :face_with_raised_eyebrow:


The same






“Tesla and other EVs will be overtaken by hydrogen cars by 2030, predicts auto…”

Unbelievable, what utter nonsense.

“So we create electricity, then break down water to get the hydrogen, then compress it, transport it through a vast new pipeline network, then compress it again to super high pressure tanks in the hydrogen cars, then convert it back to electricity to run the car. Our science education is obviously sorely lacking when people can think this is a practical idea.” - Peter Andonian

Sums it up perfectly.

TDT :sunglasses:



“India’s Mahindra calls for urgent shift to electric vehicles…”

Last out of the starting blocks.

TDT :sunglasses:


“Electric vehicles made up almost half of all cars sold in Norway in 2019”

First out of the starting blocks.

TDT :sunglasses:


"The scale of planned investments in electric lineups means both automakers and related industries in Europe and North America are focusing on how to secure future supplies of battery-grade nickel – and also on ensuring there’s sufficient cobalt after the market tightens from about 2021 to 2022, Riggall said. “Their minds are being forced to turn to raw materials,” he said. “They are seeing significant risks on that side of the business.”

You have to wonder at why it has taken them so long to wake up to this. Things should now start to move in the right direction the beginning of next year.

TDT :sunglasses: