LME Nickel Stocks



It doesn’t look like nickel is going to trade side ways after all but has decided to go for the savage retrace option.

All good things come to an end I guess.

TDT :sunglasses:


“…LME’s inventory level fell to 160,000 MT as of end-June and is now down to 149,000 MT. This is equivalent to less than two months’ worth of supply and indicates a potential shortage,…”

That’s not quite right. Current nickel consumption per month, based on a 2.2m tonne market is in the region of 185k tonnes per month. Current LME inventory is below 4 weeks.

TDT :sunglasses:


“But prices should not fall too much as short position holders fear of another price rally driven by major industry players, the analyst said.”

This is what I was hoping would keep prices up there. There is no guarantee that Tsingshan has stopped buying.

TDT :sunglasses:


Nickel market records deficit in January to May 2019

The nickel market was in deficit during January to May 2019 with apparent demand exceeding production by 57.3 kt. In the whole of 2018 the calculated deficit was 91.3 kt… Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of May 2019 were 47.5 kt lower than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to May 2019 totalled 906.0 kt and demand was 963.4 kt.

**Mine production during January to May was 985.4 kt, 81 kt above the comparable 2018 total. Chinese smelter/refinery output increased by 47 kt compared with 2018 and apparent demand was 65 kt higher than in the previous year. **

World apparent demand was 35 kt higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In May 2019, nickel smelter/refinery production was 209.5 kt and consumption was 227.1 kt.





I also like solar energy :slight_smile:




"…Chinese firm Tsingshan Holding Group has been buying large quantities of nickel on the LME to supplement its own output. Nugent said Citi forecast prices would ease back to $13,500 a tonne in the fourth quarter based on supply/demand fundamentals and marginal prices, but in the meantime prices could be volatile. “Flows can dictate the direction of the market as long as that position is funded. The question is do the flows come back with full force or are things allowed to settle?”

TDT :sunglasses:








In China, NCM 811 already reached 4% market share in New Energy Vehicles. Globally, it’s at 2%.

According to Adamas Intelligence, the NCM 811 lithium-ion cells are gaining popularity at a rapid pace, doubling its market share month-over-month.

 The NCM 811 means low cobalt-content cathode (nickel:cobalt:manganese at a ratio of 8:1:1).

The NCM 811 appeared on the radar in April with a market share of 1%, while in May share increased by 113% and now stands at 2% globally.

In China, where NCM 811 was introduced by CATL in several new models, market share is already at 4% (2% in April and 1% in March).

TDT :sunglasses:




“A single entity holds between 50% and 79% of LME nickel warrants, exacerbating fears over short supplies.”

TDT :sunglasses: