LME Nickel Stocks



Nickel held on to the increase at the close. Tomorrow should be interesting especially if the LME live warrants total finally dips below 100,000 tonnes.

TDT :sunglasses:


Still refusing to go below 100k! Live warrants currently stand at 100,470 tonnes.

TDT :sunglasses:


Well, that’s a first. Draw down of nickel in the LME today is recorded as zero. That doesn’t mean to say that the live and cancelled warrants figures haven’t changed but if they have we will have to wait until tomorrow to find out.

TDT :sunglasses:







"Lithium Industry Buildup Is Outracing the Electric-Car Boom"

Something similar happened with cobalt. The price rocketed to near on $100k/tonne and supply ramped up in response. While that was happening cobalt was being engineered out of batteries if not completely then significantly reduced. The price of cobalt collapsed as a result.

Lithium is slightly different. Unlike cobalt it hasn’t been (so far) engineered out of or reduced in quantity in the batteries currently being churned out for EVs. It is, unlike cobalt, abundant and relatively easy to produce. Cobalt experienced the double whammy of a demand side contraction at the same time as a supply side surge. Lithium appears to be experiencing a demand side increase being outpaced by a ramp up in supply.

I wonder what will happen with nickel? Engineering cobalt out of batteries has resulted in an increase in the amount of nickel used. We know what the demand is likely to be going forward but the supply side is a far more complicated picture. How this is all going to play out in the near to long term is anybody’s guess.

TDT :sunglasses:



One of the comments I’ve seen posted on several occasions is should the price of nickel increase significantly it will have dire consequences for the adoption of EVs. This sort of comment usually comes with nothing to back it up. The below table, produced by BNEF, gives some idea of what the likely effect of an increase in the price of nickel would be on the cost of an NMC 811 battery.

Nickel at $25,000 to $30,000 a tonne would result in a 4.5% to 5% increase in the cost of a battery. That’s not going to negatively impact the adoption of EVs.

TDT :sunglasses:







Will the Nickel Run-Up Last? - The Bull

“ tells us only 6% of current nickel production goes into EV batteries. However, metals and minerals research and advisory firm Adamas Intelligence claims as of May of 2019 the year over year increase of nickel going into EV batteries was 57%.”

57% year on year growth from here on based on 2.2m tonnes in 2019 and 6% of that going into EV batteries would mean:-

6% of 2,200,000 = 132,000 tonnes

2019 - 132,000
2020 - 207,240
2021 - 325,367
2022 - 510,826
2023 - 801,997
2024 - 1,259,135
2025 - 1,976,842

If you assume 50kg of nickel per EV battery that means close to 40m EVs being sold worldwide in 2025. Not every car uses 50kg. of nickel but some of the nickel will also go into static battery applications so close to 2m tonnes by 2025 might not be so far fetched after all.

TDT :sunglasses:



This is an interesting development.

Will these home batteries have nickel rich cathodes, that’s the big question?

TDT :sunglasses: