“ADVANCE IN UNDERSTANDING OF SOLID-STATE BATTERIES”
It doesn’t look like we are going to see solid state batteries anytime soon.
This is interesting:-
“Ravensthorpe nickel mine set to re-open a third time amid soaring demand for the metal”
“Historically … [lithium-ion batteries have] been about 8 per cent of the total market. But with these electric vehicles growing at 20 to 30 per cent a year, that’s just becoming a much larger component,” he said."
I’m not sure the 8% figure for batteries in the nickel market is accurate but I can say for certain the “electric vehicles growing at 20 to 30 per cent a year” is way off the mark. Since 2014 the CAGR for electric vehicles, up to and including 2018, has averaged just over 58%. That’s an average over a relatively short space of time and there’s no guarantee that this rate will continue. In fact this year looks like the average will slow down to somewhere in the region of 55% to 56%. That’s still an awful lot higher than the article suggests. If they are basing their figures on 20% to 30% they are going to be way off the mark.
Demand for EVs still hasn’t taken off just yet. The number of different models for sale is still relatively small, that’s due to change; the number of charging points still relatively small, that’s due to change; the price of EVs relative to ICE is still relatively high, that’s due to change; legislation controlling tail pipe emissions is set to become more stringent. Demand is only going to go one way. How fast is the big unknown but as Tony Seba says mainstream analysts consistently get it wrong to the down side.
EUR/USD 1,1040 It is true, and it is not good.
“Europe is beating the US in the battery race—with China’s help”
Interesting statistic in that article. It claims that by 2023 the following battey capacity will be available in:-
China - 800 GWh
Europe - 198 GWh
USA - 130 GWh
That’s enough battery capacity for 18.8m EVs based on the assumption that “18 GWh today—enough to make 300,000 fully electric vehicles (EVs)” according to the article.
You don’t build the factories to make the batteries if you don’t think there’s going to be the demand.
You can also work out the amount of nickel this will require. Assuming 50kg. per EV and 18.8m EVs that’s 940,000 tonnes of additional nickel by 2023. Even if each EV only requires 40kg of nickel it still comes to 752,000 tonnes of nickel by 2023.
Having the capacity and operating at 100% are two entirely different things but it seem unlikely that they’d build these facilities if they weren’t planning to produce at name plate or close to.
The number of live warrants in the LME refuses to go below 100,000 tonnes. It looks like the market is balanced at the moment.